CAPE
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@psuhoffman Outside of something transient/bootleg, are there any cases where there was a sustained -NAO while the AO was persistently positive? I would think not, or very rarely.
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Yeah this winter the SPV has been a consolidated monster, and it has coupled down to the troposphere. Not much is going to overcome that. Maybe perfect forcing in the Pac that produces a persistent PNA ridge. We would have a fighting chance if that were the case. Not so this winter. Not even close.
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For those who were not aware, they certainly should be after this winter. A persistent +AO is death to snow chances in our region. Only way to somewhat mitigate it is a persistent and strong EPO ridge.
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A large portion of the region also had a snowless Jan, aside from a trace. And outside of NW areas, very little in Dec. But yeah, it's generally how we roll.
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What town are you near?
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Low of 19 here.
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At least the GFS op has teased with a potential hail mary event on recent runs. Yesterday it looked like maybe around the 5th. The 6z run now has one on the 9th. Clipper incoming at hour 384!
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Yes mid month and into March was a great period.
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I think we had the epic poetry thread that year too. Or maybe it was 2014. Fun times.
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Ha I forgot about the second one.
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Just browsing through that thread. Those were the days.
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Its here- That was the winter Boston had over 100", much of it coming in Feb.
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It wasn't your typical rant. It was ROFL stuff.
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lol it was extremely creative. Guess I will have to dig up that thread now.
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No post by anyone here will ever match Jebman's epic Boston snow rant from 2015. A true classic.
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Noobs.
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This window actually has decent support on the GEFS. Too bad it will be gone in a couple hours lol.
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What? This is the one. Gonna save our winter.
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Not at all. All guidance has been heading this way for days now. I don't think anyone here is surprised. I just think its fitting if it ends this way. There was really never any tangible reason to believe the pattern would be notably different going forward, outside of shorter wavelengths.
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Yeah and some were beating on the Euro for being too dry/too suppressed. It almost always wins.
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Just to expand the futility area a bit, Philly is at 0.3". Their worst snowfall season was 1972-73, recording a trace. As of now, this winter would rank second, just ahead of 1997-98, with 0.8".
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We will see 80 before the end of March.
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Just looked at some snow obs for down south. 1-4", with a lone report of 5. Mostly in the 1-3 range. Pretty much as expected, except for those buying into the ridiculous NAM runs. Decent event for them considering the horrific pattern.
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Yawn. This h5 look is as bad as we have seen all winter. Lets just hope we don't get our seasonal flip to a -NAO until June, where the only damage it can do is make things warmer.
