CAPE

This beast is relentless.

There wont be any blocking this winter. Full stop. Any cold will absolutely be transient. This is about a temporary relaxation of the ++AO combined with a slightly better PAC, and needle threading. That's it. We got nothing else, but Spring.

We Talkin' bout snow showers. Not snowpocalypse II.

What else we got? Could end up being 1-2 for someone. Who knows. Either way, I hope you get bupkis.

Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing.

Potential comes with the secondary surge (real deal) cold. I spotted this on the Euro a few runs ago but it seemed to lose it a bit. Looks pretty decent on today's run. Something to watch.

I suppose dropping from off the charts + down to +2 qualifies as tanking this winter. It looks less positive briefly, but models have it going deep blue up top beyond that.

I even suggested we might have to make a thread. That doomed it, till now apparently lol.

I mentioned the potential for snow showers/squalls yesterday with the colder air moving in but it kinda disappeared.

I think the 12z GFS run might be a disaster but I need Ji to confirm.

Looks relatively quiet this week. Some showers ahead of the front, but otherwise dry. I'll take it.

I know you wanted to.

Only one warm rain event this week before we end it with another 2 day dry chill down. Progress.

The way I see it evolving(most likely) if that all too familiar advertised anomalous ridge in the PAC is real(pretty good bet), the trough out west will dig hard, and a ridge will build downstream behind the departing eastern cold. The only difference I see in the overall pattern is the ridging in Canada, which is rapidly losing amplitude at the end of the run as the AK and GL vortices reemerge/converge. Sure there might be a briefly "favorable" window in that mess for something, but we both know how likely it is to actually produce lol. eta- looking at the latest EPS run

@psuhoffman Sure we could still thread the needle with a flattish wave, perfectly timed with enough spacing, just as the cold is departing. But this upcoming pattern was supposed to be "different". It does not look that way though. It's just more of the same. Thats all I am saying.

The look at the end of the EPS run features yet another transient cold/dry shot behind a cutter, with a trough about to dig out west downstream of the biggest thorn in our side this winter. Rinse and repeat. We are seriously stuck lol.

Yeah I have made several posts about how fragile these potentially "good looks" are. It is what it is. Maybe we(some) will get lucky.

A winter like this underscores how important latitude is. Even the local western highlands cant escape the hostility of the pattern. Anyone who wants snow regardless of the pattern needs to relocate to the inter mountain west, or somewhere between Minnesota and Maine.

At least that low looks like it moves off the SE coast and spares us from a big coastal rainer.

Any relax in the ++NAO looks pretty darn temporary if the GEFS is correct lol. Guess we will find out if that western ridge is real/ how much impact it will have on our sensible weather heading into early March.

I know that's what the GEFS was forecasting. Not sure the EPS ever went to that look. I haven't been watching closely, but I think it has been generally keeping the forcing near the MC, but on the weak side. When is Mersky back? We need an expert up in here.

Oh I got it lol. It was 18 bucks I think. I wanted another one.

Enough so we continue to see some hope on the guidance. Glass half full. You may notice that some of the more positive posts in the LR thread often coincide with happy hour.

Only place I have seen the 120 on tap is at DFH in Rehoboth. They also have an aged WWS, but it ain't cheap lol.

The period I was looking at was when the legit cold moves in on Thursday evening I think. There is another vort max that moves in after that too. We can reevaluate coming up shortly. If it looks promising, we can start a thread.