CAPE

In retrospect, last year wasn't awful for my yard, but every event save for one managed to under perform in one way or another, and the Jan event was basically half of what it was supposed to be for northern/eastern areas. Last 3 winters the totals here were 8, 19.2, and 12 last winter. The second Nina winter was slightly above climo avg here, so no complaints. I have had four 5"+ events in that span since the 2016 storm. There have obviously been worse stretches.

We could discuss how weird this h5 panel looks.

I guess It just doesn't bother me when the on-topic discussion briefly flows to something that is technically off topic, but not completely unrelated, as it did today. It wasn't like someone just randomly started talking about sports or exotic cars and hijacked the thread. I guess we should just let the mods determine what the threshold is. Given the way things are looking for the next couple weeks for cold/snow chances, imo the briefly OT discussion today did not detract at all.

47 here. Sun feels great though. Sun angle season is upon us.

What a bunch of whiny hyperbole this is. There is plenty of on topic, good analysis in that thread today. A bit of off topic stuff when there is literally nothing happening for the upcoming week, at minimum, really should not cause anyone discomfort or inconvenience. In other words, get over it.

I live south of you, at 60 ft elevation. This was taken the morning of March 6, 2015. The temp was around zero. The high that day was in the 20s. Definitely didn't suck.

If his yard didn't get fringed once in a while S DE would never get snow.

Have not looked at individual members, but I would bet there is plenty of conflict with that look on the mean. It is also difficult to tell with the low res/smoothing if there is any relaxation up top in the LR. I didn't look at the teleconnections on the latest runs but last I looked there were no real signs the AO was going below +2. The "good" on the GEFS in the LR is the AK trough looks like it wont park and may weaken/retro into a decent spot, and the +PNA look. Who knows how "real" it is or if it will to evolve into something better. More than likely it will be another 'failed attempt' by the guidance and we see no appreciable changes.

GEFS and GEPS are trying to offer up a somewhat different look towards the end of the month. The mean suggests a PNA ridge, but still not a great look up top and not really a cold look overall, but it would be better than the rut we are in now. Probably the last chance to shift the pattern to something more favorable for a March hail Mary though, so something to keep an eye on over the next few days. Lets see if the EPS gets on board.

Yeah it looks good for places like the Poconos now. Would probably be all snow there verbatim. Easy chase for those who are desperate to ease their despair.

Well get in there and give em' what they really need- an ensemble mean 3" probability map!

Totally agree. Way too much is made of sun angle too. Even if it snows in late Dec it rarely sticks around more than a few days because we don't stay cold that long, or it rains right after.

I don't think this applies to everyone. I eat 2 "big" meals a day, and breakfast is not one of them.

Yeah I am pretty freakish about my diet, even though I have never had a weight issue. Just makes sense to eat right to me. I stopped (intentionally) eating refined sugar years ago, and now if I have the occasional piece of pie or something around the holidays, I really don't even enjoy it. No sweet tooth at all. I believe in micro fasting, so I don't eat much of a breakfast- maybe some Greek yogurt or something with protein if I am going to workout before lunch.

I was just out in the yard extracting dandelions. Good time to do it with the soft soil. I also took a walk back in the woods to check out my "seasonal" wetland, aka mosquito breeding ground. Surprisingly, nothing but one little puddle. It is usually well on its way to expanding into a 1/4 to 1/3 acre, 1 ft deep swamp by now. So now I am rooting for warm and dry. Evaporation and transpiration ftw.

Delayed onset of mosquito season tops my list.

I will add one thing to this. Exercise. Endorphins. Today will again feature no snow, but it's a damn near perfect winter day to get out to a state park or wherever and bike/hike, or just walk and breath in some fresh air.

The GEFS has been showing signs of 'positive' change the last several runs. GEPS and EPS not as much. Sadly I think what is most likely to transpire is another failed attempt, with the PAC ridge ending up parked right where it has taken up residence for the last 2+ months. But we will have to wait and see. We truly cannot know.

Yeah I mentioned that in my post above. It's the GEFS though. Not so much the EPS. Either way, we have seen this "attempt" many times over the past several weeks.

It can work if this pattern breaks down and evolves to something more favorable- either the +AO relaxes or the Pac improves, or both. Otherwise March will be just like this, but even warmer.

EPS is still pretty much a train wreck, although it looks slightly better towards D15. If there is a way out of this crap pattern, it wont come in the next 10 days (broken record). Maybe the last few days of February can be salvaged, otherwise March will have to be the savior.

0z GEFS doesn't dump as much energy into the AK trough, then weakens and retros it in the LR. End result is a trough near the Aleutians and a very nicety placed PNA ridge and potentially active southern stream. There are -850 temp anomalies in eastern Canada and along the US east coast with no SE ridge. Not super cold but no torch either. This has been your daily glimmer of hope in this winter of doom. I am sure this is happening.

Even if its a few hundred miles south. What a winter.

I spent an hour in my muddy yard/flower beds today pulling out little weedy things- chickweed and stuff. Then I got bored and came inside for a beer. This winter is easily the worst in recent memory. Altho my memory sometimes fails me lol.

NNE can still do okay. Otherwise, yeah. One day we(collectively) might all learn to stop hunting for snowstorms in patterns that are the antithesis of what is required for snow here. What fun would that be though?