CAPE
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Seen this before? lol Hard to buy into anything more than a transient NA ridge until we see persistence on the guidance in near real time. We have seen this several times on long range guidance this winter, and it disappears. Of note, the GEPS still likes the blue up top in the LR, and a western trough.
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Maybe the usual warm season -NAO will develop a little earlier this year- when it might actually be useful.
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At least HH delivered a little. Hard to ask for more in this dismal winter as we near the end.
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No, it wont. It will be a day or so later and it will cut.
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Agree. It is the GFS/GEFS though. I started getting an oddly "good" feeling about this after the 6z run this morning.
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If this is even close to reality, you are golden, and most of the rest of us are fighting for our frozen lives.
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^ It's more inevitable than ever this winter, in this pattern. Ofc, it may be shifting just a bit..
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Simply not engaging him is the answer. It is quite easy to do.
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18z GEFS kinda likes late next week.
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I think it means based on observations of the surface pressures observed in that area over a specific period of time, in order to arrive at a mean. eta- I think I am pretty close. This is from the CPC: The loading pattern of the AO is defined as the leading mode of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of monthly mean 1000mb height during 1979-2000 period.
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There is a strong correlation. The AO index actually is a measure of surface pressure near the pole. We want to see higher pressure there. (-AO) The SPV does not always couple to the TPV, but it has this winter. Generally speaking, a strong PV tends to keep the cold air locked up in the HL regions, and outside of a big EPO ridge, it becomes very difficult to get legit cold air delivery into the mid-latitudes.
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Absolutely. We want to see multiple weak little baby vortices scattered about, not one consolidated blob of purple doom.
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Speaking of which, might be seeing just the beginning of a bit of warming from the Atlantic side at the end of the Euro op run today. 50 mb is as low as we have on WB, but might be fairly indicative of whats happening in the upper troposphere. It is becoming more elongated/tilted here than the previous panels. Still, look at that beast. What an absolute monster the PV has been this winter.
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I had a feeling it was headed there looking at the 0z run. It has not been as enthusiastic about building a PNA ridge- it flirts with neutral then wants to build heights further west again. GEFS and at times the GEPS seem to like the idea of a more favorable western ridge position. Maybe the EPS is on to something and we get a nice HL block for March to counter the crappy Pacific.
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Yeah it seems to be attempting to break down the HL ugliness. Have to wait and see on that.
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Euro broke the every other day cutter pattern.
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lol
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I have a subtle way of communicating in certain instances. One probably would not expect it from such a bitter man.
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Yeah, thus the morbid part. The pattern has been a train wreck, and will likely continue to be. It's gettin' late though..
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I have become morbidly interested in the end of the month period beginning late next week. Probably nothing comes of it, but we are seeing signs of something "different" with the pattern. 12z GEFS Snowfall map for the last 10 days of the month. Not bad.
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It has to be derated due to sun angle.
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Will have to luck into a fluky event if the +++AO/NAO persists. There are at least some signs that could happen beginning late next week, and maybe some relaxation up top beyond that.
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EPS also has lower heights in the east down the line. Biggest difference in the LR is it tries to trend the AO/NAO towards neutral, and doesn't have much ridging out west. Seeing some decent signs across guidance, but ofc we are moving into a period where we generally need even more anomalous cold to get the outcome we want.
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Total 1.05" Next round incoming in a few hours..
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My glass is half full again after looking at the 6z GEFS.
