CAPE

Yes you can. We (I) also like imperial stouts. I know you are fond of those. Did you ever try a DFH WWS? Another big, high gravity, sipper. 18%.

It is a legit sipper. Insane amount of barley. Big and malty- bit of a sweet malt backbone with notes of of caramel/ toffee. Complex. Defo not your typical IPA. Not for everyone, but it is for me lol.

I love DIPAs. You have to try a DFH 120 min. 9 bucks for a single. Seriously. It's a completely different experience.

Since I made that initial post, I have sipped this down to a quarter glass. I would not drive right now lol. (probably)

Most "doubles" are in the 8-10% range

Probably quad lol. 18%. eta- DFH 120 min IPA. The "holy grail" of IPAs

Ha yes it will. I can drink a whole bottle of red wine myself no problem, but if I drink 2 of the 120s I am dead.

I think it's 120 time. I need me one of those 'special' buzzes, the kind you can only get from a super high gravity, high food value ale. Cheers!

Not really what I would consider a true(or completely useful) -EPO. That stubborn trough is still there. Even so, there would be "some" decent cold air available. The ridge in western/central Canada along with the TPV location to the east would mix in some Polar air, even if the somewhat weakened(hopefully) AK trough is still pumping in some Pac air. Also, given its modeled location, that air would be colder than if it was further south and stronger. One thing I will continue to say- all these advertised looks in the LR, although different and potentially somewhat better, are very fragile. Could still be a mirage and/or easily revert to the same old shit pattern, until proven otherwise.

Forecast low of 12 here tonight. Now that's anomalous in this mild, snow-less winter. Alas it will be back in the 50s by Monday.

I think that one is fading fast, but not completely dead. Probably the very end of the month is the next window, although the 0z EPS, which finally rolled out on WB, implies a cutter on the 27th. That would be a shocker.

Extend that through May and its a no brainer.

The workweek rain total here is 1.7" Going to be a few days now before the next cutter. Withdrawal may set in.

I am just calling it as I see it. As of now, the possible "different" pattern the guidance has been hinting at is looking a little more questionable. I shall remain interested until I'm not lol. For now, we just cant know. Time will tell.

Remember the PNA ridge? I pointed this out the other day on both the GEFS and GEPS- although they both were attempting to build a +PNA on the means, the tendency for h5 heights to quickly build back further west was also notable. Well, look at the latest runs. This should hardly come as a shock lol. I am not a believer in the HL region becoming favorable and mitigating the crappy Pacific. The +AO/NAO has been very stable, and although it may relax a bit, not sure it will be enough to make a meaningful difference. The most notable ridging "up top" on the GEFS in the LR is over central Canada/Hudson Bay. Been there this winter.

I am far from convinced we are going to see a significantly better look up top going forward, other than something very transient like we have seen from time to time. If the recent MJO forecasts are reasonable, maybe we can get a less hostile Pacific over the coming weeks. Latest GEFS runs seem to be leaning a bit more towards the GEPS look in the LR, which is still crappy in the HL, but not awful overall with a somewhat less hostile Pacific. Generally it's a very fragile looking and ambiguous pattern as advertised on the means currently, imo. Difficult to figure just how it might evolve(if at all), but we will probably know in a few days whether the pattern is actually moving towards something different or not.

Probably my post yesterday saying I had a morbid interest in next week. That must have done it. lol. The GEFS did look pretty good for a couple runs. For the record, I am no longer morbidly interested. Otherwise, yeah things never looked very promising until the end of the month- IF the advertised pattern change is real.

Savor the next couple days. Mid teens tomorrow night. Then back in the 50s with another cutter next week. DW our time will come. March. Next March, for sure.

I think a coating of snow from a suppressed, strung out mess the 12z Euro gave to NC late next week has some folks shook up in here.

Drink a beer and check back in 30 mins or so.

lol

Only place with less snow is the Gulf coast. I hope that wave juices up a bit to give the Carolinas a decent event. It really is a weak POS as modeled.

This is probably the period to watch.

That's why I said it had the right idea lol. I am not expecting some perfectly timed wave to deliver, just as the NS is in the process of lifting out. I mean, it's not impossible, and we have seen some recent runs suggest it, although the likelihood of it being weak and or suppressed would be high. Until there is something notably different with the pattern, I would expect the same results. Hopefully we see some of those changes right around the end of the month.

GFS has the right idea. Wait a couple days and bring it out so we can continue the theme.