CAPE

0z EPS had 3 out of 50 members that gave decent snow to the I-95 corridor through next weekend. It can only trend better from there.

This might be just another way to fail lol. IDC though. If this is legit real, I will take it in a heartbeat, because it is wholly different than what we have seen. We need to get out of this predominant SE ridge rut.

Looking at the MJO forecasts, GEFS has strong convection propagating into the Western Pac, Phase 7. EPS is much weaker but does shift the forcing well into Phase 6. Probably explains the different advertised looks out west in the LR.

@showmethesnow 6z GEFS is trying to do what I suggested in my earlier post. I am sure this will work out.

Worth looking at when there is a discrete "threat" showing up, yes. I have been keeping an eye on them the last couple days, and ofc you cant help but see them posted here lol. There are a few in the mix each run that would be decent hits for the general area, but the majority have the frozen in the usual places to our north, and some of those get the very northern part of our forum in the action. Looking at 6z GEFS members through next Saturday, not awful overall. Only 3 or 4 that are acceptable for my yard.

Anything is possible, but with the continued unfavorable pattern, its all timing/needle threading. Your area might stand a chance of getting something other than plain rain, but it's difficult see this one ending up significantly different than about every other event that's occurred in recent weeks- or has it been months? Down the road the pattern continues to look awful for the MA. I am sure you noticed what the EPS is doing over AK towards D15. The GEFS has it too, but I suppose if one wanted to be optimistic based on its depiction, rolling that forward we could end up with an Aleutian low and a well positioned PNA ridge.

Exactly. The long wave pattern continues to be the same ol' shit. And we will continue to see the same results.

No snow for you.

Don't you mean RR?

Also not that far from zero. eta- nw baltimore wx beat me to it. I should probably read the thread a bit before replying lol

Here is the one inch prob map through the period of interest. Looking good!

I cant imagine that being our failure mode. Not this winter. I mean, yeah we could see a weak ass strung out wave with barely a surface reflection slide to our south, but probably not a legit wave. I would be shocked. Stranger things have happened though, I am sure.

I cant complain here about the back to back Ninas we had a few years ago. Some decent cold periods and a snowstorm in early Jan each year for eastern areas. In general they suck for snow for most of our region, but can deliver light to moderate events, and the occasional coastal bomb. I would be fine with a Nina "reset" after last winter and this current debacle.

That looks awful. it will be different next run tho.

The ultimate killer is the +AO, and then combine that with the pure crap pacific pattern, and snow chances are all but dead. The predominant storm track is to our NW, and it's very difficult to get any legit cold air here, outside of briefly behind cutters.

Yeah it seems to undergo some perturbation over the next week or so, but then quickly recovers- as it has all winter.

Speaking of PV...

Yes I think I would be forced to go with the "seasonal trend".

Temp was 43 when I went to bed. 57 when I woke up. Starting to get breezy out there.

Any wagers on which idea is closer to reality?

We do wind pretty well. Along with heat ofc. Rain total here (so far) is 1.05" Was a nice moderate soaker, but hardly worthy of a flood watch. Lower shore and S DE did get some heavier rains.

18z GEFS implying a -EPO/+PNA towards day 15. 12z run had the +PNA look at the end. Also looks like the AO is trending more towards neutral. Decent look overall. Question is if it is even remotely close to reality lol. Maybe the current MJO forecast provides a clue.

Fixed.

It has had a suppressed wave for 3 straight runs now. Euro had a flat/suppressed wave today too around the 15th. Something to keep an eye on for sure. The way this winter has gone, it will probably be a flat, strung out, weak pos, followed by an amped cutter as the cold departs. Or, maybe we will see some legit changes and a turning of the worm. Law of averages/we are due and shiit.

Not sure I would call that a game changer. Still a +AO, and it's the CMC.