CAPE

They always tell us the same thing- we suck at snow.

I just saw that. Apparently heading to a basketball practice. Very sad.

I was up there for 79 and 83. Both better than 93 irt storms I experienced. eta- both beach chases in 17 and 18 were great storms too. I can appreciate 93 for the monster that it was, but in my location, it was a wet snow bomb to heavy rain to iceberg deal, and overall nothing special.

Great historic storm, but probably not even top 10 here. 1996, 2003, and all 3 biggies during the epic winter of 2009-10 were far better. Jan 1987 was better here too. Even with the dry slot from hell, 2016 was better. I am sure I could come up with at least a few more. Location!

I actually like seeing that stripe of snow to our south. The Feb 5th to 10th period holds some promise, as we should actually have some real cold back in our source region, with cold fronts moving SE to deliver it.

It was a much different set up. The only thing favorable about this one is some ridging out west lol.

The antecedent air mass for the 93 storm, although marginal, was better, and there was a mechanism for keeping LL cold in place during the WAA phase. Pretty much all the snow I got was from the WAA. About 8". No way that can happen with this event. In the 93 storm, as the low tracked up the coast(too far west for me) lost the surface and 850s, and ended up 40 degree rain. Point is that storm was quite different compared to this one wrt the set up leading in, despite the similar(maybe better?) low track. All that being said, your area has a knack for getting snow in these very marginal systems. In this case it will almost surely be dependent on impressive dynamics with the CCB, and that may end up too far west, or not get going until the storm is NE of the MA.

Exactly. I have pointed this out several times. I literally have zero interest in this storm for my yard. Blue ridge and westward it can work. Piedmont region needs like every box checked to make it work. I am interested in what happens when we finally get the Pac flood out of Canada and some cross polar flow back around the 6th.

Warner Brothers

Yeah that could always work, and produce localized heavy snow, in some cases east or south of places where precip is light/mixed and not accumulating. See that happen in early Spring storms sometimes. I would put that in the 5-10% probability at our latitude in this case. If this storm is going to deepen enough to CCB clobber a location, it will likely be to our NE.

The 850 mb temps are ok. Bigger problem is that weak HP slides off the coast. With the true arctic air bottled up well north, its going to take a perfect track, and a strong low to dynamically cool the column. IMO it is nearly impossible to get a snowstorm for the coastal plain. Would literally take perfection. Could work out for the Piedmont, but even there just about everything would have come together just right.

1.12" here so far. Still coming down moderately.

Yeah we finally see hints of relaxation up top and the NAO moving towards neutral, and if the PAC transitions from Version 2 of total crap right back to version 1, it wont do us any good, outside of a mega block developing, which is very unlikely. Hey we still have the CFS, steadfast in its commitment to a +PNA and a stout EPO ridge going forward.

Will that reset the MJO to phase 1?

0z GEFS is suggesting full on winter cancel. 0z EPS showing some signs of moving that way too.

Until the strong AK vortex relents, the chances for snow in our area, east of the mountains, remains low. Between the EPAC ridge and the AK vortex, mild Pacific air is being hurled eastward. Look at our source region. No it's not a torch pattern here, but with no HL help, it is nearly impossible to get a legit cold air mass with the hostile PAC. Until we move away from this- To this... ...frozen will be hard to come by outside of the western highlands. On the 0z EPS, after an initial shot of moderate cold into the east around the 7th, it weakens/retros the PNA ridge and pulls the mean trough back into the central US, which looks a bit tenuous. It does appear to be building a ridge up into AK though. Still signs of improvement in the NAO domain with the TPV further west and elongated. More waiting to see exactly how the long wave pattern evolves towards mid Feb. Hopefully things don't go the way the 0z GEFS is suggesting. Back to square one. Or zero.

Pouring here. If it wont snow, might as well have a spring deluge.

Dw it wont be close in the end.

I think this situation calls for a bit of snarkiness.

What we are stuck with for now is a pure Pacific air mass. Looking at the 0z EPS, around Feb 3rd-4th there are indications of a somewhat colder regime building into our source region. The AK vortex is weakened but still there, so the flow of air is still largely off the Pac, but there is also some cross polar flow depicted at that time related to the TPV position. Guidance also has the NAO trending neutral around this time. Upshot is the super positive 850 temp anomalies over much of Canada weaken and get replaced with slightly negative anomalies, and some of that "moderate" cold heads SE. Until that occurs, I think we are likely looking at a very low probability of a widespread winter storm, outside of the highlands. eta- CFS still depicting a +PNA then a developing -EPO heading into mid Feb. So hopefully we see more significant indications of this at the end of the global ens runs the next few cycles. GEPS is there already at D15. Maybe it will actually materialize this time.

With a +AO and a ++EPO, its difficult if not impossible to get any deep cold down this far. There is a reason we are seeing meager snowfall probs on the means, and op run after op run with "good track" coastal rainers. Marginal cold might do it with a strong enough low, a perfect track, and some luck for inland areas, but a frozen outcome will be very difficult for the lowlands. The stubborn AK vortex seems to weaken some on the means in the LR, and there are signs of the NAO going at least neutral towards day 15. Probably still 10 days away from a potentially more favorable pattern- one that can transport legit cold into our region.

Only 21 for my yard??? Poor DT. His yard truly is the snow anus of the MA.

Three lows track SE of us on the 18z GFS, and nary a flake of snow lol. Comical shiit.

Woah. I think I have found a big ass Imperial stout I like as much as DFH WWS.