CAPE

The AK vortex is going to flood Canada with Pac air. The advertised +PNA look towards the end of the GEFS would be completely impotent for our purposes if that look materializes. The 6z run this morning hinted at that trough retrograding towards the Aleutians. Not happening on the 12z run, and not on the EPS either. eta- As I said this morning, an optimist could evaluate the h5 look at the end of the GEFS run, and see the 'possibility' of the pattern becoming more favorable just beyond that period. Problem is, we have all been doing that for months, and it never happens. Maybe this time..

I have never been a believer in the late week deal. I am looking for signs of life down the line. There aren't many.

+PNA tho lol. EPS looks worse. Absolutely no signs of improvement in the LR. Shutout look.

Just takes everything to come together for one brief period. They have been in deep Spring down there for most of winter, but the needle was threaded today. Still a chance that happens here. Maybe in March.

Maybe we can get 5/50 EPS members to give us snow this run. Plenty of time for incremental improvement.

I dont buy outliers... Yeah I don't buy the CMC either.

Its about the same sensible weather wise. We aren't close to sniffing frozen.

I noticed you ignored my reply to your question(confusion), but if you look at the differences at h5 between 6z and 12z you have your answer. Minor shifts in depth/timing, and "new" pieces of energy dropping in can alter this fragile setup just enough. Any way you slice it, its marginal and a lot has to come together just right for it to work out.

We do when we have a +AO/NAO for sure. Uphill battle, unless we get some serious cooperation in the EPAC.

Another piece of energy to factor in to the needle threading. Too many moving parts and "ifs". I suppose we are due for it all to align, in spite of It being a crappy setup for snow.

Looks like the GFS is doing just this lol.

WSW for N Georgia. 2-4". What a winter.

That is what became of the Chill storm I think. At least some are getting something out of it lol.

0z EPS had 3 out of 50 members that gave decent snow to the I-95 corridor through next weekend. It can only trend better from there.

This might be just another way to fail lol. IDC though. If this is legit real, I will take it in a heartbeat, because it is wholly different than what we have seen. We need to get out of this predominant SE ridge rut.

Looking at the MJO forecasts, GEFS has strong convection propagating into the Western Pac, Phase 7. EPS is much weaker but does shift the forcing well into Phase 6. Probably explains the different advertised looks out west in the LR.

@showmethesnow 6z GEFS is trying to do what I suggested in my earlier post. I am sure this will work out.

Worth looking at when there is a discrete "threat" showing up, yes. I have been keeping an eye on them the last couple days, and ofc you cant help but see them posted here lol. There are a few in the mix each run that would be decent hits for the general area, but the majority have the frozen in the usual places to our north, and some of those get the very northern part of our forum in the action. Looking at 6z GEFS members through next Saturday, not awful overall. Only 3 or 4 that are acceptable for my yard.

Anything is possible, but with the continued unfavorable pattern, its all timing/needle threading. Your area might stand a chance of getting something other than plain rain, but it's difficult see this one ending up significantly different than about every other event that's occurred in recent weeks- or has it been months? Down the road the pattern continues to look awful for the MA. I am sure you noticed what the EPS is doing over AK towards D15. The GEFS has it too, but I suppose if one wanted to be optimistic based on its depiction, rolling that forward we could end up with an Aleutian low and a well positioned PNA ridge.

Exactly. The long wave pattern continues to be the same ol' shit. And we will continue to see the same results.

No snow for you.

Don't you mean RR?

Also not that far from zero. eta- nw baltimore wx beat me to it. I should probably read the thread a bit before replying lol

Here is the one inch prob map through the period of interest. Looking good!