CAPE

I have been in Spring mode for at least a week now. I officially ended my winter yesterday. For the first time in the history of these boards, I beckoned the reaper. He did not disappoint.

I think my yard is perfectly positioned for some heavy, 35 degree rain. I am thankful the rain will be warmer than it has been. Spring must be near.

Ha maybe! I know very little about the physics of the HRRR. What I do know its it is prone to dramatic shifts over a few runs, and it is next to useless beyond 3-4 hours. So I guess what I am saying is, I wouldn't worry about that particular model. There are enough subtle changes in the more reliable guidance over the past 2-3 model cycles to put up some caution flags though. Just for a "quick and dirty" look, check out the snow map over last 3 runs of the GFS on TT. Don't look at the amounts, just the trend. It now has all the significant snow focused more NW, as expected in this setup. I said yesterday I thought the ICON looked reasonable, and it has pretty much held.

Just looked at the HRRR for the first time. Not too inspiring lol. Of course, it's the HRRR.

Admittedly I don't have a whole lot of interest at this point, but I skimmed through the guidance this morning, and other than maybe the Euro, everything looked a bit warmer to me. Likely won't make much difference far N and W, but around I-95 it will. After the initial onset of precip, which will likely be rain, the best chances for places like DC to pick up an inch or 2 is clearly this evening, when rates pick up and some dynamic cooling occurs. Beyond that, warming aloft will be moving in from the SE, and with surface temps probably just above freezing, p-type will transition to more of a sleet/rain mix for I-95 and points SE.

Who cares. The 12km pummels me in death. Thanks Reaper!

You guys are practically neighbors. Climb that hill and have a beer.

There is no doubt this winter has completely sucked here lol, but I was over climo last winter, plus the blizzard chase at Rehoboth. Not bad the winter before either, and also had the big snow chase at the beach. I know my climo. This stuff tends to even out, and here you have to accept being on the short end of the stick more times than not.

Eh, not always, esp recently. Been plenty of nice snows here the last few years. The mid March storm last year was the biggest of the winter here.

We are on the exact same path. I also just requested reapage. Plus, vodka. This Icelandic stuff is good. Better than Titos.

See plenty of fox and deer around here. No hills though.

Canceling WB probably Monday. Its pretty much over, and I am totally fine with it. Seriously, I am looking forward to warm, even hot weather. This winter has been cold, wet, and dreary, but wholly unsatisfying because the overall pattern has sucked for snow. Esp for eastern areas. I wont buy into the widespread predictions for epic patterns so easily going forward. Was kinda dumb in retrospect. We all know the -NAO is an urban myth. Its like the white walkers. But who knows, maybe one day winter will come.

I have 6 acres, and where the house is located is "high" and the soil is well drained. My driveway is a mess though, and there is a wetland back in the woods. Mosquito breeding ground in Spring.

Might be a little on the light side, but temps are a factor. Definitely a more realistic look than the 12Km NAM.

I just hope my yard sees the precip hole that has managed to occur every time it snows this year. I really don't need another inch of rain.

The 18z ICON looks pretty reasonable to me. Has the heaviest snow NW where expected, and the snow maps seem indicative of lower ratios given the marginal temps.

Well at least the 3km NAM seems reasonably sane. It is somewhat warmer aloft, and per the 10:1 snow maps it has the heavier snowfall clearly NW of the fall line, as expected.

Minor changes, Yoda. That's not why the clown maps went nuts with the "snow".

If he wanted to "show the changes", he would not lazily be posting the snow maps. If you look upstairs, there isn't much difference at all. Run-to run noise.

Yeah I am totally buying the 5" it gives my yard in 3 hours, with the 850 mb 0c line right over me and heading NW. Those maps are terrible.

Those snow maps are highly imperfect, and usually biased towards frozen on the edge imo. Probably will be pretty brutal because of the marginal surface temps and the warming at 850 mb at the height. The thing that might help those right on the line are heavy precip/dynamics. Hard to know how that will play out until game time. In this case it's probably wise to go with elevation, so if right on the fall line or east, keep expectations low.

I will sleep like a baby tonight, lol. Speaking from lots experience this winter, anyone right near that 2" line on that tight gradient, it usually fails not in your favor.

Start a thread. I am sure it would fill with posts from Ji and others who have 25- 30" of snow, complaining about all the cold rainstorms that could have been another 25-30.

Probably too far east. The "part 2" of that storm was primarily focused on DC and points just west and north. I would guess 5-6" from that event.

Was 34 and rain here, but I bet I got more than you. 0.77". Top that!