CAPE

Yeah have to just let go of Dec/Jan at this point. Absolute miserable failure, esp for I-95 east. If Feb and March can deliver 2 or 3 decent events, then maybe we can salvage winter so it doesn't go in the books as a complete wreck. A bit of HL blocking would sure help that cause.

12z EPS builds some weak ridging into GL towards the end of the run. At least a neutral looking NAO. Maybe transient, but something to watch in future runs.

Hopefully there are some better trends with next week's wave(s). Squash city for now. Would be a simple way to get a decent event with just enough cold air around and a modest wave tracking underneath, but it's never that simple lol.

Realistically that is probably our first best shot at some frozen imo. I liked what I saw on the means this morning, and why I highlighted that period. Could very well end up another rainer ofc.

Pretty much the same here. Ground is frozen, ice on the creeks, and nothing in bloom. Did have some random clumps of spring grass popping up during the warm stretch, and some scattered low to the ground weedy growth, but nothing significant.

Way out there, but this is not too bad for the first week of Feb. Not spectacular, but ok for a long lead and esp given the minuscule chances for snow we have been seeing/continue to see on guidance.

In an overall mediocre pattern, this is a workable set up.

Agreed. Terrible place for snow tho most winters.

I definitely feel like I live in Salisbury this winter lol.

I much prefer snow to frigid and dry. That being said, I do like seeing frozen ponds/rivers and in some cases, even the bay. I like hiking out in the cold, on frozen ground. Wouldn't want a 2 week icebox with no precip though.

Did have the original 'bomb cyclone' during that period though. I know it sucked for I-95 and west, but that was my favorite chase to date, at the beach. Legit blizzard there. Ended up with about 6" at my house and it stuck around for 5 days before significant melting.

lol I was looking for one of those F U memes when he posted that.

I think you missed the context, but ok. Why PG anyway? We have 13 year olds up in here?

He was flipping off the MJO forecast. Pretty appropriate response.

CFS still on-board for a general cold pattern beyond the first few days of Feb. Driven by a +PNA initially, then by the big EPO ridge we keep seeing advertised on LR guidance- that ultimately fails to materialize. Maybe it will this time.

"Just bring the precip and I will take my chances". Doesn't work without cold air, and there is no legit cold air mass in sight going forward. Well, maybe in about 15 days...

Okay.......

Not trying to be mean dude, and Psu's response pretty much nailed it. "Over the top" analysis is not intended to, and cannot possibly, yield anything. You don't make many posts. Try harder when you do.

When I see his posts what usually comes to mind is how damn useless they are.

At least in my recent travels, I have seen some "shallow" winter. Dec 17-20th out in the high spots near Boonsboro then up into the Catoctins. A crusty inch with plenty of ice on top. My trip to Lancaster and points north featured plenty of cold, some light sleet/snow coverings and lots of small glaciated piles and icy patches. I stopped at Terrapin on my way home today and did a brisk walk, and the creeks/inland waters were iced over. Nothing on the bay ofc. You take what you can get in a crap winter. Still enjoyable being out in the cold, even if it is fleeting.

Glass half full interpretation. Roll this forward and there is a favorably located -EPO, +PNA, and a neutral NAO. Problem is the last time I looked a few days ago, LR guidance looked pretty much the same out west. The idea of moving towards a better pattern kinda seems stuck around day 15.

I haven't been paying much attention lately(deliberately) but a quick glance and not much seems to have changed in the LR. Still trying to kick out the AK vortex and replace it with a ridge. Maybe an attempt to shift the +heights over eastern Canada up into the NAO domain, but that's 15 days out and it looks weak. Basically, the pattern still looks hideous for snow chances in the MA outside of the far western highlands.

It will probably look good until mid June, then the high sun and competition from all the trees will cause it to deteriorate.

I thought last winter sucked- totaled slightly more than 12" imby. I mostly complained about it because of all the different ways events managed to under perform. Would take a miracle to get a foot at this point. Still less than an inch here.