CAPE

I will likely relocate somewhere in the next 5 years, and I wish I could move it, because I cant find anything I like as much when I browse homes online.

I am rooting for progressive and weaker so everyone gets cold rain like my yard is guaranteed to get. But then, I am a selfish dick. And bitter, very bitter.

This winter has been a classic forum splitter. It has not been because of the typical temp issues for the most part, but rather odd dry holes/poorly modeled qpf, and late arrival in CAD situations with transient cold for eastern and even NE portions of the area. Everyone has endured too much cold rain, but the frozen events have all under-performed/minimized in southern and eastern areas, except for maybe the cold powder light snow event. I wonder how much snow the Annapolis area has had so far? I would guess not much more than 12". Yet not too far NW in Howard county it's pushing 30".

0.77" of 34 degree rain overnight. Cant wait for tomorrow night- should be a good inch of rain, with temps in the low to mid 30s. Has to be some sort of record here. Used to get 45-50 degree rainstorms. Actually, I am looking forward to a week of cold and dry. It will be a nice break before the next cold rain event towards next weekend.

The Founders Breakfast stout is a good one and available all year. Another, more local, coffee stout is the Rise-Up from Evolution (Salisbury). Not sure how available it is up your way.

Believe me I am not holding out much hope on this one. Gonna keep the incredible streak of cold rain events going. How is your stock of Imperial coffee stout looking?

Overview from Mount Holly in their AM AFD: While there is still some uncertainty regarding the actual surface low track, the guidance has shifted more southeastward. This appears to be due to today`s storm getting a bit stronger east of New England, plus the 00z ECMWF in the northern stream presses the lead short wave farther east. This lessens the mid level divergence in the height fields and pushes more zonal thus keeping the southern short wave farther south (more toward the GFS solution). Other guidance is also a bit more south and east. This would tend to favor some colder thermal profiles, however a more southern track may also lessen the dynamic forcing to some extent especially the farther northwest one goes. Our region however is still forecast to get within the favorable right entrance region of a 250 mb jet. This will also help to strengthen the surface low as it tracks to our east. In addition, the incoming amplifying trough will produce a period of widespread large scale ascent, which will be augmented by a zone of stronger 850-700 mb frontogenetic forcing especially during the first half of Sunday night.

I am ofc rooting for more of a GFS type solution, with a further SE track and later development. This type of evolution might get the mid levels cold enough for some snow here, probably towards the end of the event. Low probability though. Better chances along I-95.

I actually still have snow on the ground from this morning. Well, with the high dews and drizzle, it's pure slush lol. update- steady light to moderate rain now, temp 34. Lookin' good for 2" of liquid by Monday!

And oh yeah, almost forgot my ob! 34 and light rain.

That winter, with the great blocking, it would start snowing with temps in the mid 30s, then steadily falling into the 20s, leading into the epic snow events. With the overall crappy h5 set up this winter, its been endless 33-35 degree rain, and usually rising temps. Putrid.

No idea. No feel for the mood, as I have barely had time to skim through the models, let alone the threads. Maybe because of that, I have a 'fresh' POV. This set up blows for the coastal plain. That's pretty much it. There would have to be pretty significant 'positive' changes on guidance in a pretty short time-frame for this to become a decent event for places other than the NW areas. Not impossible, but unlikely IMO.

Yeah, if I lived in Manchester, MD, I would feel pretty damn good right now lol.

Worst winter ever here..not really but still, it totally blows. Quit bitchin'.

Lol why do people keep posting useless snow maps? 2-4" is not falling I-95 points SE in any reasonable scenario. 100% chance of zero snow here.

11/15/18: 0.5" 1/13/19: 5.2" 1/18/19: 0.7" 2/1/19: 2.7" 2/10/19: 0.5" 2/20/19: 1.0" 3/1/19: 1.6" Total: 12.2"

Measured 1.6" before I left for work. Was still snowing but winding down per radar. All roads up my way were snow covered. Much less in Easton, maybe a half inch and roads mostly just wet.

Legit heavy snow now. Just when I am about to leave for work lol. Looks like I will end up with 1.5" or so.

The "slug" is here and pretty intense. Wind has picked up too. Big flakes and close to heavy snow currently. Hopefully it will last at least 20 mins.

Yeah maybe it can end with a bit of a bang here. Back to pixie dust currently lol. That slug looks like it could be some snow missiles mixed with sleet.

I'm super busy with work so I have had little time to track and really didn't have any expectations. Trends yesterday on the models were shifting the best banding to my N and NE, so I am a little surprised at whats out there now. Maybe I can exceed an inch for the third time this winter!

Just woke up a few mins ago. Looks like close to an inch and snowing moderately. Looked at the radar loop and lol, looks my yard was in a dry hole(as usual) for a while.

I'm not either. Just going with the current bad vibes flow now because the "trends" suck lol. Kinda fun being too busy to pore over each model run though. I just check in from time to time and I am like, okay whatever. I hope we can end the season with a decent event or 2, but tbh I am over this winter. If it happens, cool- otherwise it's on to other stuff.

Time to pack it in I guess. Bring on Spring. I am building a fire pit/stone surround/with plants in the middle of the back yard. Another step towards completely eliminating my "lawn".

Another op run at range, and a different outcome. And people are actually surprised?