CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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I cant imagine that being our failure mode. Not this winter. I mean, yeah we could see a weak ass strung out wave with barely a surface reflection slide to our south, but probably not a legit wave. I would be shocked. Stranger things have happened though, I am sure.
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I cant complain here about the back to back Ninas we had a few years ago. Some decent cold periods and a snowstorm in early Jan each year for eastern areas. In general they suck for snow for most of our region, but can deliver light to moderate events, and the occasional coastal bomb. I would be fine with a Nina "reset" after last winter and this current debacle.
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That looks awful. it will be different next run tho.
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The ultimate killer is the +AO, and then combine that with the pure crap pacific pattern, and snow chances are all but dead. The predominant storm track is to our NW, and it's very difficult to get any legit cold air here, outside of briefly behind cutters.
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Yeah it seems to undergo some perturbation over the next week or so, but then quickly recovers- as it has all winter.
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Speaking of PV...
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Yes I think I would be forced to go with the "seasonal trend".
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Temp was 43 when I went to bed. 57 when I woke up. Starting to get breezy out there.
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Any wagers on which idea is closer to reality?
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We do wind pretty well. Along with heat ofc. Rain total here (so far) is 1.05" Was a nice moderate soaker, but hardly worthy of a flood watch. Lower shore and S DE did get some heavier rains.
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18z GEFS implying a -EPO/+PNA towards day 15. 12z run had the +PNA look at the end. Also looks like the AO is trending more towards neutral. Decent look overall. Question is if it is even remotely close to reality lol. Maybe the current MJO forecast provides a clue.
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Fixed.
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It has had a suppressed wave for 3 straight runs now. Euro had a flat/suppressed wave today too around the 15th. Something to keep an eye on for sure. The way this winter has gone, it will probably be a flat, strung out, weak pos, followed by an amped cutter as the cold departs. Or, maybe we will see some legit changes and a turning of the worm. Law of averages/we are due and shiit.
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Not sure I would call that a game changer. Still a +AO, and it's the CMC.
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Half inch here. Bust so far. LOL Flood watch.
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Looks like 8-10" for Canaan up toward Deep Creek on the Euro. Quite a thump. Would be a nice chase in a winter where most of us cant buy a flake.
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Yes but that may be starting late next week Seeing hints of good things occurring sooner rather than later on the op. As always, time will tell.
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Best advertised look we have seen in ages out west. Could it be... Real? Could the ++AO be relenting? Only 15 days away!
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Oh damn. Sorry to hear that. Hope everything goes well Mappy.
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No I am not aware of anything. My drive to work puts me on 404 for about a mile at around 630 am. Something serious?
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With that sort of look on the mean, I am sure there is quite a bit of spread among the members. That might be a good thing. Better than continuing to see western trough/eastern ridge on the mean. Maybe some hints of change. Way out there ofc.
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It gets the trough out of the west and flattens the SE ridge. N-S gradient look with seasonable temps. If that general look verified it wouldn't be the worst thing.
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Had an incredibly anomalous rain event in Feb 2 years ago I think. Around 5" here with some flooding. Came after the Jan cold period with the bomb cyclone IIRC. Could have been the year before, as they both had early Jan cold and coastal plain snowstorms. Had never seen anything like that in the winter months here. Hard to get the pwats for that kind of heavy rain that time of year,
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Cold air pressing.. a wave tracking underneath. Maybe our hail Mary period..
