CAPE

The low track is further SE on the 12k NAM and is a bit stronger, so if it went that way it could work out. It is a compact storm so not likely to make everyone happy.

lol too bad it's the 12k NAM. When the EURO has that outcome I will be interested.

There is still a weak signal for something around the 17th on the GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS. Something to keep an eye on, as beyond the next few days there probably wont be much winter weather to be tracked for a while.

Picked up 0.87" of rain over the last couple days. 1.62" over the last 7 days.

The totality of his contributions: He is more useless than snow88.

^ Not sure that would help. The air mass in place ahead of the storm isn't very cold- the cold temps in the AM are a function of long night/radiational cooling. The only high pressure around is a weak ridge moving off the east coast- that is not good for cold air advection. Look up north - nothing but low pressure. So temps will warm as the storm approaches and starts to deepen along the coast. The low level 'cold' comes in behind with the deepening trough, but it is a relatively low qpf, short duration event, so its too late for the lowlands. Pretty textbook for some modest wet snow for inland/elevated areas as currently advertised. eta- if the low is a little deeper/slower, and tracks a bit more to the SE, there could be a better outcome, as showme discussed in his post earlier.

At least you have a short drive up the mountain if it fails in your yard. I drove up to Washington Monument State Park back before Xmas and it was a winter wonderland above 1000 or so feet.

Looks like a rainy game too. Both teams like to run, and so it will come down to which D can get the other team's O off the field, and turnovers. Titans are a tad scary to me, because they do play smash mouth, and are playing loose. That being said, their Dean Pees led defense ranked 21st this season, and the Ravens should be able to move the ball effectively and control the clock.

^6z Euro is a tad south and colder. Probably some good snow tv to a light coating along I-95 verbatim. Nearby mountains and the hills up near PA line are clearly in the best position to pick up a couple inches.

@showmethesnow Did I mention I am considering a chase of this meager snow event? Your house looks like a good locale. Looking forward to 'celebrating' while sipping on a bourbon barrel aged WWS. I can direct you where to go for the acquisition.

2 big problems with this event for decent accumulations- bad set up for getting the surface cold enough- outside of dynamics, which could happen given the latest trends- and it's a fast mover. At this point there is a decent chance some places NW of the fall line will see a solid coating to a couple inches. The trend towards a deeper system could up that potential. I see no shot for the coastal plain unless there are some dramatic changes. Surface is simply too warm.

Towards D15, the latest EPS and GEPS are still showing signs of slight improvement on the Pac side, especially the EPS, and have +heights from Scandinavia building into GL, the GEPS in particular. GEFS looks more bleak, and suggests we have a long, long way to go.

Sounds awesome!

Super progressive flow. No chance for this to take up residence long enough to do any damage. Probably snow tv at best.

18z GFS is further south, colder 850s, but still weak sauce precip and warm surface.

^Very well could be the Ravens opponent next week. I expect the Pats will find a way to beat the Titans in an ugly game.

Damn. Impressive opening drive by the Bills.

It's Jan. I am well beyond being giddy over snow tv.

I am prepared to chase this week, as long as there is a chance for a solid couple inches. NAM says stay home lol.

I wouldn't know...

C'mon dude, it is clear you are on the payroll of 007. No worries. You aren't the only one.

Oh I don't mind imperials at all. lol. Prefer them actually. I have tried quite a few from Mispillion. Not tried that one yet though. Love Milford, DE. Such a comfy, quaint town. Speaking of Imperials, I cracked open that Oak aged Vanilla WWS. It was calling me from its very temporary home in the fridge.

There have been some hints of improvement on the PAC side for the fist time in a while. Latest MJO forecasts suggest tropical convection may actually progress off of the MC, and there are subtle signs of improvement in the central/eastern PAC on the EPS and the GEPS, including an increase in the PNA beyond D10. Might be noise. We should know in a few days, lol.

The EPS looks similar but the trend towards neutral is at a slightly lower rate. GEFS shows a slight increase then levels off.

So I am not hallucinating. lol. I have a feeling the EPS tellies are going to have the PNA rising towards or above -2!