CAPE

Last few runs of the GEFS look to be setting up for a nice start to March. Very favorable h5 look. 12z EPS is at least showing signs of moving that way too.

We talkin' Ji worthy?

'd

Temps are mild at onset then drop to 31-32 verbatim.

I still need to change my screen name.

lolz ninja'd

Happy Hour just triggered my intrinsic happy hour tendencies. Time for a whiskey stout.

Mount Holly not impressed either at this point for event 1. Going warm. Even if moisture makes it into their southern PA and SNJ zones they are thinking snow to rain with maybe an inch.

I know I have said this before, but my optimism for a legit -NAO developing the second half of winter was based on a correlation to a CP weak-moderate El Nino. Without atmospheric Nino-ish behavior, I doubt we see anything other than weak/transient NA ridging at this point. eta- QBO is a factor but was moving in the wrong direction as winter approached. The SSWE probably had impacts as well but that is way beyond my level of understanding. Ultimately, what drives the NAO (the negative phase in particular) is not well understood. It figures one of the most important indices for snow chances here is also one of the most esoteric.

A combo of things. PDO early on was not favorable. The Nino was very late getting going, and still is probably more a warm neutral, plus it has not been well defined, and has not really coupled to the atmosphere, which was probably largely due to MJO on roids interfering. MJO and SOI are trending more favorable, but probably a lag effect. Also sometimes we have to accept that this shit is very complex- large scale fluid mechanics and heat transfer- and we just cant know.

Yeah I saw that, and no I don't buy the big blocky look at this point. Once again that ship has sailed, and it was a ghost ship yet again I'm afraid.

Probably PDO related like Bob has been saying.

Lolz I think it was meant to say "dumping".

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD this morning on the first system this weekend. Good stuff as usual- System 1 (Saturday)... A potent trough in eastern Canada and a weak perturbation to its southwest in the central plains is the initial setup for the extended forecast (starting 00z Saturday). The trough is expected to pivot northeastward as a kicker vort max digs southward through Ontario. Meanwhile, the perturbation will reach the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by 12z Saturday, but appears not to be influenced tremendously by the eastern Canada trough. As such, the central U.S. perturbation may tend to shift ever-so-slightly southward as the digging Ontario vort max impinges on it. As the perturbation moves into the Mid-Atlantic during the day, it will tend to get sheared in the confluent flow downstream. However, as the kicker vort max to the north approaches, the perturbation may re-intensify in the lee of the Appalachians, particularly given favorable jet dynamics (left- exit region of a zonally-oriented 250-mb jet streak). The end result appears to be snow to the north of the associated surface low. Of course, it`s all about location (location, location), and the operational model runs did appear to shift somewhat southward overall. QPF is nothing to sneeze at with this system, with up to a half inch possible in a six-hour period. This would be a healthy pumping of snow where it occurs, though also fairly short-lived. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

It depends on specifically what period you are looking at, but in general the lower height anomalies are there off the Canadian maritimes where we want. The degree of ridging over GL varies, and has generally been weaker on the EPS than the GEFS. Big picture is the long wave pattern progression we are expecting to see keeps getting pushed back until the end of each run. More so on the EPS(its actually beyond D15 now lol). We can still do ok because the SE ridge does get beat down at times and there are threats on the table. I am just questioning whether we ever see a mean E US trough at this point. It may just stay out west and when things relax up top, it breaks down/retreats into Canada.

IDK I still think the bigger problem is the EPAC features are generally displaced too far west. When guidance shows progression- with an actual Aleutian low and EPO/PNA ridge further east, the SE ridge is flat/offshore or disappears. 0z GEFS looks good at the end, but EPS lately is back to the retro look with the N/EPAC features. Maybe we just never get there.

Both. They tend to go hand in hand- a ridge up top and a semi-permanent vortex stuck underneath, which tends to produce the desired result here- a cold N/NE feed and favorable storm track.

1.15" of rain for this never ending event- mostly light to moderate with temps in the low 30s. Temp is 42 now and its freaking pouring.

I dont even know what trend we need anymore now a days. Just a snow trend I guess! Fast flow and tight spacing = volatility on guidance. We have the current event to get through and then the Friday one. The exact track and precisely where the boundary lies in the wake are yet to be determined, and will have potentially significant impacts on the weekend event, and the ones that follow next week.

Ya but if we are already losing the snow now....lol Life is a sine wave

Was comparing it to a few night ago NA looks great to me going back several runs. No the EPS does not have as strong a -NAO look as the GEFS, but it is good enough, and has lower heights where we want it (50-50 region). Plus the ridging out west becomes more favorable. The SE ridge is pesky, but I suspect it will be more suppressed than currently advertised. Try not to micro analyze.

It is literally noise. It's a mean @ D10+. There is no significant difference comparing it to the previous run. Ji is shooketh.

Fringed. Actually it is about where we want it at this point.

Just hug the GEFS and pretend its as good as the EPS.