CAPE

I agree with this in general. We typically don't see significant winter events at the front end of a major pattern change. That said, it is still showing up on guidance, and I could see the usual places getting a mixy storm. Almost never happens on the coastal plain.

Yeah there is a chance we could see a more sustained block, but it has been a long time since that occurred during winter. As some of us were discussing yesterday, if the EPO ridge is going to be a prominent feature, we will have a persistent cold air source, so some periodic/well timed transient ridging in the NAO space could work as it would provide a mechanism to inhibit a bigger storm from cutting. Overall it's hard not to get a bit excited with what the guidance has been advertising lately. Looks like we have to get through 5 days or so of Spring and then things get rolling.

6z GEFS is a weenie run from late next weekend onward.

Different model lol. GEFS also builds heights during that time frame, but not as impressive and more transient than the EPS. By day 15 they both end up with pretty much the same look- big EPO ridge with a neutral NAO on the EPS, more positive on the GEFS.

EPS is now building some pretty significant +heights into the NAO domain in 10 days. The whole look up to is impressive on this panel. It's fairly transient, and a few days beyond this the EPO ridge becomes very impressive, with the NAO looking more neutral. Cold look down the line. Hopefully not dry.

You're good. Sometimes you can "know too much". We both teach for a living, so you know what I mean lol.

Not sure about this. I thought the EPS was showing small signs on the Pac side(trending towards a neutral PNA), and made several posts about it. Showme and Chill were seeing signs as well. I felt we could be back into a pretty favorable pattern beyond the 20th. That looks to be on track at this juncture. Lets see how it evolves/how long it lasts. We simply cannot know.

There are always "issues" when it comes to snow chances in the MA, outside of the highlands. Once in a while it all comes together though, and it's magic.

Based on recent history, this is probably the best we can hope for. If the -EPO is legit and sustained, the AO wont be super positive, so if we can get some well timed bootleg negative NAO periods, there will be a chance or 2 at a bigger storm that doesn't cut.

Lots of moving pieces. Very hectic run. That upper level energy above the lakes got pinched off between the ridge over Hudson and the ridge building northward over the Canadian Maritimes, and then it phases with the energy moving underneath from the central US. The blocking(such that it is) was just getting its act together, and if you look at the panels beyond this one, you can see that piece of energy pretty much moves ENE, with the ridging over the top also in motion moving up into GL. To recap- the pattern is not blocked up(yet) and the UL energy is not cutting up into a 'log jam'. And none of this matters because it is an op run and the next cycle will bear little resemblance to this progression lol.

Also a coupled PNA/EPO ridge.

Yes that may be the case. I didn't look at the 0z GEPS, but the op run was clearly getting the cold in earlier and favoring low pressure to our south/southeast late next week/weekend. I did live up there for 10 years until work required me to move to the nearly snowless lowlands. I did find a spot on the interior upper part of the peninsula away from the bays and removed from the immediate coast, so it isn't awful all of the time. A move north is likely in the near future. But not merely to the northern edge of the subtropics where you are, I am talking NORTH.

No shortage of trackable chances. Lets just hope one or 2 remain legit inside of 5 days.

You mean this? Lol I was just looking at it. Interesting, but not sure we would have enough cold air in place at that time.

I also like the EPS and even though verbatim it is a nice look for SNE next weekend, it is not far off at all from being a good outcome for our region.

It is a bit yes. That being said, this is occurring at the time of an *apparent* significant change in the pattern, and it is still a week out. There are likely going to be some changes. Absolutely would not be surprised if things are being rushed a bit, and nothing of consequence(frozen) happens next weekend.

6z GEFS looks good to me.

Its right. Gfs caved and was always bs How did it cave? It's but another op run, and the same idea is there. Still a snow-ice to rain deal. A bit less of a front end thump this time.

0z CMC has the arctic air dumping further south and east into the center of the country by next weekend, with some moderate cold bleeding south and east of that. Develops an initial wave that moves along the front with a rain/snow mix for our area, then as the colder air gets further entrenched on the east coast on Sunday, it develops a low along the coast to our SE and snows on NC and SE VA.

Yeah there are 4-5 big hitters in the mix. The 16th might be a bit soon but its still a week out so who knows. Seems the general improvement in the pattern is incrementally trending sooner on the guidance.

^ A trip to Canaan or Deep Creek looks like a good bet.

Not bad for the 18th - 25th of Jan window.

Pretty consistent signal for that time frame for a frozen/mixy precip event. Could be fun times a bit sooner than we all thought. Minus Merksy ofc.

Agreed. Its winter. I want winter weather.

At least there will still be cutters when a sw amps to our west with that +NAO, so not totally dry.