CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Lets zoom out and objectively analyze what we see. Is this the look of a pattern that produces a snowstorm in the MA? I could make a strong case that this is the exact antithesis of the ideal pattern for snow. But..there is still a chance!!
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I think we all know this will fail one way or another. Its just how we roll this "winter".
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HH leaves the main southern energy behind this run. Big 1042 high overwhelms lol.
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I think he is returning from winter....to this.
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Its the same old broken record. Fleeting (marginal) cold with a possible storm developing in the southern plains. There is decent cold high pressure to the NE on this panel with some CAD, but its on the move. It's another thread the needle tease that will deteriorate in another few model cycles.
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It can. Confluent flow between 2 h5 ridges FTW. We score this way all the time.
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Don't do it. No one is that bored..
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There are like 2 members that have a suppressed wave.
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Perfect. I do my best work during happy hour. My devious creativity spikes during that period for some reason.
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Yeah to me it's value would be to act as a 'check' on the op, where the op could go off on a tangent due to the higher resolution.
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Why aren't you in the other thread breaking down the pattern and giving the weenie's hope for a random chance at frozen? Oh, that's right, you are working for him. Well I need pay increase then- look at all the good work I have done in there over the last 24 hours!
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My understanding of the control run is that it's essentially an unperturbed ensemble- it has the same initial conditions as the op, but is run at a lower resolution like the other ensemble members. Not surprising then that it could occasionally produce a different outcome than both the higher res op, and the perturbed ensemble members.
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The bottom line lol. With climo "normal" temps on the rise over the next couple weeks and no mechanism to deliver anomalous cold, there will still be plenty of days in the 50s.
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This says it all. All of the other key teleconnections are in the wrong phase as well. PNA flirts with neutral then goes back negative.
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EPS knocks down the eastern ridge, but the problem is the dominant feature remains the AK vortex. No real cold around, which has been the issue all winter. GEFS is the only one of the 3 that has a 'decent' look and some chilly air in the LR. The 6z run actually starts to look decent up top. The GEPS and esp the EPS aren't having any of that though, and for the most part our source region remains flooded with mild Pacific air.
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Steady, moderate rain here this morning. 0.75" since yesterday.
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There has never been any support on the ens. The advertised h5 pattern looks terrible for that period. Might be an opening around the 25th or so. Way out there.
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The parade of NW tracking storms has been unreal. Is KC close to a snowfall record? Seems like they have been in a sweet spot this winter. eta- I just checked and it looks like my perception is a bit off lol. Looks like they are just a tad above normal there.
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Finally! We got this. Cranky likes it.
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Some of us need consistency in our lives. This pattern definitely giveth in that dept.
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This period just screams potential. What a look.
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Because he needs to keep his snow weenie followers believing in something. These dudes are all the same.
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Yeah I understand that. That panel you posted above is pretty ugly lol. Can't get much worse looking up top than that. Maybe going forward the look will improve, but the odds are not good. This pattern has been locked in. Persistence FTL.
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Just cracked open a 2018 G.I. Bourbon County Stout for happy hour. My glass is more than half full, for now.
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Probably a good time to stop looking at the LR. The likelihood of seeing any meaningful 'favorable' pattern change at this point is probably pretty low. If it's going to snow, it will be some lucky/fluky deal that pops up in the medium range. And yeah, shorter wavelengths might help even with the same general crap pattern. Cant forget to mention that. lol.
