CAPE

Congrats! Love the sound of that stout. I am going to try to make it out there in early Jan.

It was a very good explanation/illustration of a period of blocking. He just missed that I completely concurred on it for that very period.

Ha you didn't offend me dude. Just having some fun with it. No worries.

Only casually tracking this as it really would have to come in fast and heavy for my area to see more than a trace. I would be thrilled with a half inch of frozen so I can declare an official 1" for the month.

Just quote it

Yeah I mentioned the EPO/WPO as a good example of recent blocking when the question was brought up in banter. Hopefully we see something more sustained on the NA side as we get deeper into winter. If we continue to see the QBO trend towards negative/low solar/atmospheric Nino behavior(debatable at this point), there is a decent chance blocking episodes become more prevalent and of longer duration going forward. Wrt the Pac, if it stays in crap mode for an extended period then probably the only way to overcome it for our region would be persistently strong HL blocking.

Yeah and the op has had a coastal storm for several runs, last 2 runs destroy SNE, and there are EPS members that have it, but very few are snow producers for the MA. That can change.

EPS isn't too enthused about the pre-Xmas potential yet. Actually looking through the members, there is a stronger signal for the period just after.

I think you missed the context, and also replied to my post that was addressing the period after Xmas where there clearly was no blocking on the particular run being discussed. I do fully understand what constitutes an actual block. But thanks!

tl;dr (lol) You could have saved yourself a lot of unnecessary explanation had you seen this post- The period I was specifically referring to in the post to which you replied was irt to Bob's post, and is a few days after Xmas(18z GFS). Not a block as advertised. The broader point I was making is, overall on the means, we are not seeing strong indications of sustained HL blocking going forward (-AO/NAO).

Remember to never confuse yellow snow with a lemon snow cone.

How about the Panasonic?

If you buy the latest CFS weeklies, the PAC starts to get right after the first few days of Jan. Gets really good after that. Zero NA blocking though, so its an EPO/WPO driven pattern, but looks generally cold. Ofc who knows how things will evolve in reality.

Mostly Bob.

I think Bob and i just made yellow snow in the LR thread.

A good example of a block was what we saw in the EPO/WPO domain back in November. That upper ridging was persistent for many days, and even then when it tried to break down briefly it quickly redeveloped. That persistence was the mechanism that delivered the unseasonably cold outbreaks we experienced.

Here is a fairly basic definition. This is not what we are seeing currently. We are seeing transient ridging episodes , but not a blocked flow. "Blocking events are associated with long-lasting and slow-moving high-pressure systems that "block" westerly winds in the mid- and high-latitudes, causing the normal eastward progress of weather systems to stall." When I see 50/50 lows flying northward into the upper latitudes, that tells me there is no NA block. That is not to say a bootleg/transient ridge in the NA with a 50/50 low is not beneficial, but because both are on the move, it requires more precise timing.

Advertised LR pattern may be wrong. MJO forecast may be wrong. Do all the global ensembles agree? I know you know this, but the MJO is not the sole driver of the long wave pattern either.

Outside of lucking into something with perfect timing, we really need a legitimate (sustained) -AO/-NAO to overcome the unfavorable EPAC. No idea how long that will persist. I hope it is fairly transient but we just cannot know. And IMO we are not seeing strong signs of real/legit/sustained HL blocking on the means- yet. Not raging + either, but neutral-ish probably wont get it done if the PAC remains fairly hostile. eta- Looking at the EPS at h5 and also the teleconnections, the period(as advertised) between the 16th and the 22nd, would qualify as a modest period of blocking. That window does look interesting, esp towards the 22/23rd(when NA ridging looks to break down). We have seen some nice op runs lately, but ofc the Pac is less than ideal. Definitely worth monitoring.

I see it. Its a high amped, fast/progressive pattern. I wish people would stop using the term "blocking" every time they see a blob of red on an h5 panel in the "right place" that lasts a few hours. That is NOT a block. We are seeing the opposite of a blocked flow now, and also going forward (advertised) in the LR.

Problem here is there really is no NA blocking and that impressive 50-50 races away into the NA. That is the general problem when there is no legit block. Transient higher h5 heights in the NAO domain do not qualify as a block. It can work, but It is temporary and requires damn near perfect timing.

Here comes our next HH opportunity. Holy 50-50 low batman. The High over the GLs is on the weaker side, but at least its a high and not a low there.

Looks like a scenario that might occur in a La Nina.

Now that is an interesting progression- The Low that exits off the GA coast gets captured by that NS energy and SNE gets nailed lol.