CAPE

It was easy enough to dismiss the CMC but now the GFS is showing a very similar evolution. Have to see if it sticks for a few runs.

That piece of NS energy makes it a tad more interesting. Surface and 850s are colder and the trough is more neutral instead of positively tilted.

Looks pretty similar to the 12z CMC.

Can one be taught to hallucinate (without LSD)?

12/16: 0.1" Total: 0.6"

NYE snow...maybe.

Like I said in banter earlier, enjoy your Christmas cheer around the fire pit. It should be perfect.

Yeah I mentioned the weeklies the other day when they had a generally cold look but it was completely EPO driven, with more of a a +AO/NAO look. Latest runs are better up top for weeks 3-4. I never pay too much attention past that as it's very likely to change, but that is a cold and active look.

There are some good things happening here on this panel up top, but the TPV splits and dumps energy into the western trough. Overall it implies slow progress towards a more favorable pattern.

Yeah that would get some cold air into the Lower 48 for the new year. Probably be pretty transient with a nice cutter on the backside, but hey, gotta start somewhere.

Looks like Christmas eve may feature perfect weather for sitting around the fire pit with some holiday cheer.

Not if we have an active Pac/STJ. With a piece of the TPV nearby, it can shed off lobes and contribute to confluence/help get a wave to track underneath, esp in the absence of a block.

wabbits even..

I am hunting squirrel. Mice even.

Yeah I noticed that on the 12z GEFS yesterday and commented on it. TPV was migrating towards Hudson Bay at the end of the run. If we get the TPV a bit further south, it can work for us in the absence of sustained NA ridging, and at the same time wont inhibit its development.

Actually mostly snow here now and coming down moderately. A legit deck/car topper. Temp is 34.

Its pretty normal to not see any significant snow in Dec here, so this "unfavorable" period doesn't bother me at all. No signs of days and days in the 50s and 60s, so it will generally feel seasonable. I have not looked at the latest ensembles yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if something interesting pops up in the period after Xmas and before New Years.

Snow/sleet mix started falling here in the last 20 mins. Came in too late, and with a temp of 35 and upper levels warming, this wont amount to much more than a trace, as expected.

I have agreed with you on this. There wont be a "torch" in the sense of ground truth warmth, but with the Pac in hostile mode and warm upper levels (briefly lets hope) its a pretty bad look for snow chances over the next 10 days.

We lose the Atlantic though At least we should have some legit cold between the cutters.

Looks like we have a trend rather than just model noise now. Also looks like the TPV is re-positioning itself in a more favorable location.

@mappy

It will be interesting so see how this plays out. Sources: Terrell Suggs angling to be claimed by Ravens only https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28298112/sources-terrell-suggs-angling-claimed-ravens-only I think some team will claim him regardless, just to keep the Ravens from doing so. Ravens could clearly use a situational pass rusher, but who knows if they are willing to make a roster move at this point for a player who chose to leave in free agency for more money, and is well past his prime. Given Dean Pees in the DC for the Titans, and they could use his services in competing for a playoff spot, I expect they are the most likely team to claim him.

Goff is awful.

Pathetic showing by the Lambs.