CAPE

Maybe after a few 120s and some weed.

Jeez stop engaging in the weather channel's absurd winter storm naming crap.

This looks like crap, Chuck.

Ofc any serious talk of a -NAO during winter is like chasing Bigfoot at this juncture.

You can see it if it persists on the means. It is rarely modeled well in advance though. Also a transient ridge passing through the NAO domain really isn't a NA block. The difference there is a thread the needle deal vs having persistence in forcing the storm track below us.

It will advertise plenty of -NAOs in the day 25+ range.

lol you are looking at it. The FV3 is the upgrade and it became operational last year. The corresponding GEFS upgrade is now experimental- the GEFS Para available on TT. I made a couple posts on the GEFS upgrade in the disco thread a few days ago. The 0z run goes out to hr 840! I know you like that feature.

Probably varies, but in general the DC area doesn't do any better than average with snowfall in either case. See PSU's post on the previous page.

Old news. CPC/NCEP issued the watch a month or so ago.

You suck at trolling. Maybe give up?

Summary of ENSO update as of yesterday(8/10)... Looks like cold neutral/borderline weak Nina is most likely for winter at this juncture. Could work out ok. We can do median/mean snowfall with some help elsewhere. Anyone expecting KUs will ofc be checking in to the panic room luxury resort fairly quickly.

Its a bit of a struggle this early for sure. Shit posters fill in the dead time though, so we good.

For the most part yes. I know you saw his attempt to troll psu yesterday morning, as it was removed. It was quite elaborate for him.

Ha I wasn't even considering Phin in that post. We all mess around and engage in good natured trolling. Helps keep the sanity. Some do overreact to the benign stuff though. Mersky is another story. Pure shit poster.

Not sure that is whats driving it, but I suppose Its presence may have some influence in maintaining it. The phase of NAO domain is notoriously difficult to predict with any significant lead time, and the "drivers" likely involve a complex set of interactions. The one thing we can state with certainty is that the positive phase has been dominant during the winter now for a significant period.

Call it what you want. Some of your recent posts(replies/reactions) in this thread were odd, given the context and nature of the discussion. Maybe relax a little. It's early. I will make a bold prediction- It will snow this winter.

Yes. Its a few, who are over emotional/hysterical, or simply trolls.

There seems to be conflation (by some) between objectivity and pessimism. You and I, and folks like Bob Chill, will always have to deal with that it seems.

I promise to do my best to make my very first quality post ever on this forum. Please bear with me and be patient. I know I have it in me.

LOL "Called out" by a legit troll. GTFOH. You really are a dope. Maybe you aspire to be like him. If that's the path you want to take here, go for it. Good luck with that. I don't think you have what it takes tho.

Because you say the same general things yet weenie him? Doesn't take brilliance (although I am brilliant) to see that. Still waiting for your first quality post bro. You have been around here for a year or so now. About time, yeah?

Its the same thing every year. The bad vibes and anticipated doom probably begins earlier after a historic ratter that followed a really mediocre winter for most, considering it was technically a weak Nino. Some folks simply will not accept the objective data(reality), and insist that winters should be consistently "good" here based on anecdotal crap. I try to have fun with it though. At this juncture, it is silly to think anything is etched in stone. I actually enjoyed the previous 2 Nina winters more than the last 2 winters, which were warm neutral/ puny, impotent, weak Nino. I will roll the dice with a cold neutral or weak Nina. Odds are we get a few decent events, and end up near average. I'll take it.

You literally sound just like the dude you constantly "attempt" to troll. Stick to the weenie reactions. Much safer.

lol Except I never "make calls". And do keep the drive-bys coming. What would we do without your occasional mediocre attempts at abrasiveness.

And we are probably due for a fluke or 2. We were unlucky the last couple winters with events tracking to our south. No one should be on the ledge over the seasonal/climate model depictions.. They all look "bad" but the skill is terrible at this range, and even if the mean h5 pattern does end up similar to whats currently advertised, there will be opportunities within the typical 3 or 4 weeks where the pattern is more favorable for winter events.