CAPE

There are some positive signs, but not sure I would call it eye candy. Micro improvement maybe?. I also don't see the major 500 mb features in any hurry go anywhere- the mean PAC ridge and downstream trough look pretty stable. What could somewhat get us out of this rut and back in the game sooner is help in the NA, and there are hints, but that remains to be seen. My expectations at this point are maybe we can salvage the last week of January, and there is always the possibility of getting lucky before that, but odds are pretty low.

Seems it is becoming increasingly more difficult to rely on historical teleconnections and analogs because of this. That is a topic for another thread though, and we don't want to get you know who all hot and bothered. As for the QBO value, yeah you would think we would be closer to a neutral AO if not slightly negative. We know how to gauge it by looking at the surface pressures near the pole, but the actual AO values per the teleconnections are different, and the measurements can be taken at different pressure heights, so Idk.

Yeah it is what it is. We have to accept the reality of the situation- pretty likely the first 3 weeks of Jan are gone. It can still turn around though, and at least we are seeing some positive signs. Problem is, we are rooting predominately for a favorable NA to be the pattern savior at this juncture, which has not worked out so much in recent winters lol. Given my limited understanding, we have the QBO and low solar working in our favor to that end for the back end of winter. Too bad we don't have a legit weak Nino.

I just mentioned the QBO value for Dec(avg zonal wind at the equator) @ 30 mb, m/s, dropped to 1.66. It has been positive and trending slowly and steadily towards neutral through fall and now early winter. Looking at the temp correlations for winter below, that puts us in regime C. Not bad. Maybe as we get into mid/late winter, this will become more of a driver. Ofc it will help a ton if the MJO doesn't keep looping through the warm phases.

Seems all 3 major global ens are heading in the same general direction up top. We are in watch and wait mode to see if things continue to "trend" favorably.

QBO for Dec dropped to 1.66.

We extrapolate, don't we? I just like the trend of the big pig ridge in the Pac looking a bit weaker while a new pig ridge emerges over Scandinavia. Not quite there yet at the end of the run, but good signs.

Strongest ridge/biggest height anomalies in the NH are no longer in the EPAC at the end of the 12z GEFS run. I like that look.

Yeah pretty basic stuff. No substitute for latitude other than elevation. Near the coast, mean snowfall is biased lower despite latitude. eta- Ofc leeward side of GLs it's biased higher.

12z run yesterday was a tad better, but 0z still depicts pretty decent cold to our north in the LR. If we get cooperation in the NA, the SE ridge gets flattened/more suppressed and we could be back in the game by the 20th. And yeah that period looks toasty. Wouldn't be surprised to see a day or 2 of 70 on the coastal plain.

Way out there and this seems to flip and flop, but this might be the best NA look yet on a LR mean. If that PAC ridge is going to remain a stable feature, we need this to become reality.

Prefer it to be further sw. Baffin is the location where we want to see higher h5 height anomalies ideally. Doesn't appear to be in the cards anytime soon though.

Yeah after I looked again at the weeklies its about the same. Starts to improve the last week of Jan. Still think CPC is off on their EC probability for the MA given the strong signal for a SE ridge for the foreseeable future.

Looking at the latest CFS runs, CPC can go ahead and revise their temperature probability map for Jan.

Maybe a blind squirrel would have better luck?

Agree. In this case probably the best we can do is a neutral/slightly negative tilt. That would potentially provide some decent moisture advection into the cold air on the west side, and maybe get parts of our region under the deform band for a time. I think it is an outside shot at this point, but definitely worth watching. I would feel pretty good about chances for a few inches of snow if I were somewhere in the northern half of NJ or NE PA.

Not necessarily. The negative tilt is associated with better dynamics in the mid/upper levels and a more rapid intensification of the surface low. Because the pattern is progressive, a more rapidly deepening low would give our region a better chance of getting some decent precip falling into the colder air, especially places further inland.

Getting a bit of a negative tilt would certainly help our cause. A nice NA block would help too lol. Be a different ballgame if we could slow things down some.

Certainly an intriguing setup looking at h5. As it stands probably some flakes in the air with some accumulations just NE of our region, but time for further adjustments. I cant get too excited because its progressive in nature and the lower level temps are mild leading in. 6z Euro would imply a period of moderate snow over DE, but a lot would have to go right for that occur.

Yes. How could we possibly forget, lol. Given the different ENSO state heading into winter, who woulda thunk we could end up with the same result. Hopefully we wont.

This may be an oversimplification, but the key to me on the PAC side, however it actually ends up evolving from from 'bad' to 'good', is a shift in the tropical forcing away from the MC and towards the dateline.

If more people in our region were accepting of this/understood climo, there would be much less hand wringing when the guidance advertises a "bad" pattern. Even so-called epic patterns often result in nothing of consequence in these parts.

My guess is they are giving too much weight to the CFS. Very little uncertainty on the GEFS and EPS wrt to EPO ridge position and the resulting SE ridge having some staying power. That probability map would make more sense for the MA and NE if there were clear signs of a NA block developing. eta- I should have said higher or significant weight to the CFS.. "Too much" is more subjective, and based on my opinion that it's a pretty crappy model in general to use for weeks 3-4.

Yeah maybe this is something to watch. 6z GEFS looks a bit better than 0z, so maybe a bit of a trend. Mean trough is broader and extends further east, with the EC ridge pushing more into the W Atlantic.