CAPE
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I didn't dig into the individual members, but took a peak at the EPS mean, and it depicts a primary low tracking up towards Pittsburgh, then a coastal developing off the MA. I would imagine there are a fair amount of members with the TPV significantly interacting with the southern energy.
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Agree. That was my overall take looking at the 12z GFS op run.
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12z Euro ens mean has a primary low tracking up to N WV, then a low developing off the DE coast. Looks like a mix to rain then ending as snow verbatim. Long way to go but in general at this juncture it looks like a mixed deal and favoring NW portions of the region.
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Not seeing the dynamics required on the Euro for the lower elevations to overcome temps in the mid 30s.
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Does 936-1212 still work?
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12z Euro is a tad underwhelming. Not too bad for NW folks, but looks like mostly white rain on the coastal plain.
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Gotta have some laughs. Some funny people up in here. Different brands.
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People who cannot drive in snow need to be warned that snow is imminent, so they can prepare for driving in the snow, which they cannot do.
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We know the op runs will struggle with the details. In general, because we don't have a true block, for this to work it will take some precise timing. That 50-50 low is a transient feature, and the interplay between the TPV over central Canada and the southern energy will be critical. The 0z run got it done by keeping some separation- not capturing the shortwave, and the 50-50 low was in perfect position with ridging over the top.
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Its not ignoring the block- there really isn't much of a block this run. Too much interaction, too soon between the NS and the ss shortwave.
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Maybe 3-4" in S DE if you buy some of the latest guidance.
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@frd will like the 12z RGEM.
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I love the show, and I never read the comics or dug into any of the background of the story. Just been watching it, kinda lost at times, but knowing that pieces were coming together. And it's so well done it has been interesting to watch how all these characters and plots in different times and places are fitting together.
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Probably. My gut says there will be 2 maximas for snow potential- the usual places NW of the cities, and another along the coast- probably east of me. In between, it might end up being more spotty.
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You and me both. I have been doing my best to rile up the s On another topic- Watchmen- Did you see the most recent ep? I was like, damn. Some serious reveal happening.
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WSW shall be hoisted by 3pm!
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At the risk of sounding weenie-ish myself, I like seeing the guidance depicting the heavy snow bands just to my east. Its a tricky set up for sure, and one I think is truly anafrontal, as it seems like the front will be through as the final impulse moves in and precip will be falling into cold air- although right at the surface it will be a bit warmish to start. It didn't always look like this would be the case(precip behind the cold front), but it seems looking at latest guidance it is evolving that way.
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Looks to me like the cold is in place as the last piece of energy rides up. Front looks to lie in the SE parts of the region right along the coast- perhaps this is part of the reason we are seeing some guidance shifting the heavier snow chances towards DE and NJ.
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Someone is gonna get a thump of snow with this. Not going to clog up this thread with (more) graphics, but the upper jet configuration is favorable over the region and there is going to be an area of forcing at 700 mb with banding/potential quick shot of heavier snow. Question is where exactly it occurs.
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GFS looks pretty similar re the snowfall map, but the heavier snow is just north of our region a bit further up into PA. Given the advertised pattern there is a ton of potential, and yeah at this range there are just a few options on how this evolves. It's a pretty classic advertised look up top for a MA winter storm, maybe for as far south as NC. Long way to go ofc.
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0z GEFS looks remarkably similar for a potential event that is a week+ out.
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MSLP anomaly and precip panels still look enticing. This is the third straight run on the EPS with a pretty strong storm signal for this period.
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0z EPS continues to advertise a potential coastal storm towards mid next week. This is a pretty classic looking set up at h5.
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They always look ambiguous. One reason why I find them mostly useless. Its pretty much up for interpretation for those who insist on "seeing" something telling there. Pretty subjective.
