CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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In a fast flow without a block, we will continuously run the risk of a low appearing over the GLs, and Higher pressure off the maritimes. The exact inversion of what is ideal. Timing will need to be damn near perfect.
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You tell me Yoda. There is nothing "textbook" about this upcoming advertised pattern in my view. I have been consistent on that. That doesn't mean parts of our region wont see some frozen.
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I just hope we can all score a few inches and then watch it violently wash away with a mild super soaker a couple days later.
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What a forum divider on the 18z GFS. Sorry for you NW folks who get fringed.
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Yup. I mentioned this after the 12z run.
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Forum divider
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I think a lot of what we have seen lately (at verification) is transient ridging in the NAO space as a result of pieces of the TPV rotating through and pumping up a ridge there. Not that that is a bad thing, but it is really a bootleg/transient -NAO and not a true block. If the overall pattern is supportive, we can score with that, but timing is critical. That's my take.
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Nothing is ever a lock when it comes to predicting a -NAO. We will know when it happens in real time.
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This Pecan Pie Porter is pretty freaking good.
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Give it time. It will pull the rug out and the whole forum will be like
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I thought that nice little shortwave along the Texas Gulf Coast might get involved with the NS, but it gets left behind. Unless we see a legit sw moving along the boundary, I agree this is just typical model depiction of cold chasing rain at range.
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Eagles will win it with an 8-8 record.
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Snow mean approaching respectable between the 12th and the 20th on the EPS. 2" at DC. Looks active with multiple chances, ofc the prospect of total failure is always there in a pattern like this.
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26 here this morning.
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@frd
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The general idea is there. It absolutely will come down to timing, and as we know, odds are better these things don't work out many more times than they do.
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And this..
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I actually like the weather we have had for the last month. Persistently chilly, no brutal cold, but not warm either. Not a snow pattern, and pretty close to a shutout in reality(esp for the coastal plain) yet it feels like it should for this time of year. I would honestly take this for the rest of the winter vs. a torchy pattern.
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I am not big on snow maps, but it does indicate that the majority of members are hinting at an event(or 2) with some frozen potential in the MA.
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In this type of pattern the best case scenario is a 1-3/2-4 deal from a modest wave sliding underneath. Anything too amplified is going to take a west track, and ends up mostly rain for I-95 and east, esp in mid December.
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I liked what I saw on the 0z GEFS. More than one opportunity in this period-
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They "fixed" that a couple runs ago.
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The December CanSIPS is out, and it's telling Ji he should cancel winter.
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Its a progressive pattern with no NA blocking. None. There is going to be cold air around, and some action in the southern jet. With all the moving pieces its going to come down to timing and luck. Imo, we need to root for something like the 0z GFS/GEFS is depicting. eta- what i am rooting for in this type of pattern would likely give your area bupkis.
