CAPE

Looks like a possible beach chase. And maybe some snow too .

I have been tracking it closely on the EPS runs. It was either side of Xmas with maybe +3 to +5 F for a few days. Now it looks like a couple days of +2. then back to avg and heading downward.

The lag when loading panels on WB is maddening. What an awful service for the money.

I doubt anyone actually believes them verbatim. Its all for the lolz. Snow maps imo have little value until inside of 3 days, and even then they need to be objectively interpreted based on surface temps, 700, 850 mb temps, etc.

50-50 low under a NA h5 ridge + surface HP beneath the confluence to its W/SW is money.

I'm ok with the advertised EPS progression even though it does dump a piece of the TPV into a developing EPAC trough. Its not a warm pattern by any means as depicted, and as long as the HL blocking is real, it wont necessarily be a shutout period either. As is verbatim, there would be a few days centered on Xmas with temps near/slightly above average for our region.

Yeah as we well know, the "perfect" h5 looks often don't produce. I will take a -AO , a west based -NAO, and a mediocre PAC with a warm neutral/Nino background state and roll with it.

0z EPS continues to expand the area of lower h5 heights eastward across much of the US under the HL block. Fwiw, temps around Xmas are average to a couple degrees above. With this look, the following week would be moderately colder. No super cold air in our source region though.

All that rooting didn't help for either event on the 0z GFS.

Dunno. Alaska.

Whatever is gonna happen will happen regardless, as we all know. That was a nice discussion/illustration btw, but would have been better using the Ens runs rather than the op runs, which can and do change pretty dramatically from run to run..

Take it out to the end of the run (the 27th) and its 2 ft+ from DC to Dover, plus SE VA into central NC get buried. Pretty epic run that will remain a complete fantasy lol.

Euro shows a heatwave at the same time Slight difference of opinion. Beware the FV3 cold bias in the long range.

The PAC flood/warmth/torch "is there" on the EPS- Temps are an impressive 2-5 deg F above avg in our region from the 23rd to the 26th- the last few days of the run. FWIW. If correct, no it probably wont snow during that period. But no signs of anything crazy like mid 60s for Xmas at this point. 45-50? ok, its whatever if it happens. And looking at h5 at the end of the 12z EPS , the pattern is improving, although it may take a few more days. My takeaway is we are looking at slightly above avg temps for a week if the EPS is correct, and if it is also correct with the advertised h5 look- rolling it forward- we would be in a good place by the New Year. Maybe sooner.

EPS mean snowfall through mid next week isn't great, but a lot better than the GEFS.

It is better, but still an initial western track, coastal looks to form close to our latitude, and maybe being on the backside of the departing HP to our east has some influence in screwing up the mid levels..

I am rooting for snow, anyway I can get it, and as soon as it can possibly occur. There is no trading this storm for the next one. Trust me, y'all can root for whatever you want and it will have zero impact on the ultimate outcome.

Given the streak my yard is on- failing every way imaginable last winter- it is pretty sad.

0z EPS indicates coastal development but takes a primary to our west. Probably a mix to rain deal, but as Showme pointed out, its not too far off from something more on the frozen side.

12/11: 0.5"

That stuff is above my pay grade, but I have read some technical papers discussing some of the correlations. Having a near solar min, QBO heading towards neutral(then presumably negative) as we move towards mid winter, and the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish, should all favor some persistence with HL blocking, esp for late winter. Kind of a bonus that we are seeing the tendency for higher heights in the NAO domain and 50-50 low persistence early in winter.

I just looked at the 0z Euro mean and members, and its not far off from being a decent event, esp for NW areas. Need a bit stronger block/50-50 low combo, and keep some separation between the TPV and the southern shortwave to keep it underneath. As it stands, the primary low tracks a bit too far north, and the favored area for all frozen is just to the north of our region.

Yeah we discussed this a few days ago. I never felt like we were heading towards a prolonged PAC flood. Been seeing indications of rising heights up top for a while now on the means. There has been some persistence now going well back into November with some of the key features(e.g. Aleutian low), and an overall propensity to keep things on the cold side. Looks generally cold and active going forward. If next week's event doesn't pan out, it may help to set things up for the period before Xmas.

You got twice as much as me. Guess you got death banded.

Looking out into LR fantasy-land, where we don't fuss over the details, I like where the pattern appears to be going here. Great HL look and the deep trough off the west coast evolves into a broad trough with ridging over the top.