CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Significant areas with only 80-95% of normal over a 90 day period? that's some serious shiit. My yard is only at 115. I am beginning to worry.
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Did it actually snow before Jan 21? Oh yeah, I somehow managed to pick up a half inch at some point.
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12z 3km NAM is wholly unimpressive, but the 12z HRRR gets a modest line of convection going for N central MD later on.
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Looks like a there is good amount of shear but pretty weak instability to establish/sustain updrafts. If the warm front clears early enough, and some places can get a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s, might be enough to kick off a few decent cells ahead of the cold front. This is all above my pay grade though lol.
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Mid Atlantic Fail Index.
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Here is one- although it is 4 letters. MAFI. It is almost always extremely positive.
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That MD/DE map has some flaws in it. While interior and upper portions of the Delmarva away from the coast(and not close to either bay) tend to get more snow locally- 18" or so is about right- places right along the coast are too high on that map. More like 10-12" along the immediate coast, including Lewes. Also that area in NE MD near the bay is exaggerated way too low imo. Easton does not average more snow than Elkton.
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Roses are red. violets are blue There is no such thing as normal Especially when it comes to you
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Get creative psu. You owe us a poem. In an attempt to make yet another pointless Tenman thread epic, it has been hijacked. We are generally keeping the "what went wrong" theme however.
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Can you put this in the form of a poem? Thanks!
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Stratospheric vortex, consolidated Tightly wound ball of doom Weather weenies migrate to the panic room Bring it to an end The limitless winter gloom
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This is true, but let me help you with the rhyming part... Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong Move north where winters are cold and long Without lots of luck, winters here are brief, and suck
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For snow, negative AO is number one In absence, an EPO ridge may mitigate Otherwise DCA is done
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You are in a groove.
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Poetry section starts here. Go!
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You answered it all in your op. No one knows. It's in the hands of god. NWP is useless hocus-pocus. end thread/
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Another awful Tenman thread. Poetry?
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Just to expand the futility area a bit, Philly is at 0.3". Their worst snowfall season was 1972-73, recording a trace. As of now, this winter would rank second, just ahead of 1997-98, with 0.8".
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Latest EPS forecast could very well be "wrong". Thing is, I simply made a post stating what it is currently depicting, and that it wasn't good. Never claimed it was going to verify. No hitching of wagons. Now straighten your panties- they be all bunched up.
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C'mon. A met as experienced as murky knows the CFS nails these indices far more often than the EPS. CFS is literally a model of consistency. Almost always verifies. Hardly ever vacillates.
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No need. He is a pompous azz and he isn't fooling anyone here. LOL 30 year met.
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Might not work out. Who is doing the hitching here? Apparently you love the advertised EPS h5 look- at least enough to troll PSU.
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Latest EPS MJO forecast in the LR- after briefly getting into phase 7, wave dies out then looks to re-emerge in phase 5/6. That wont help much.
