CAPE

One thing that is "concerning" is the tendency for the storm motions around the initial Philly complex to move more SE than SW. With such weak flow, and localized boundaries, I really dont trust the CAM's skill in accurately depicting where new convection will fire. IMO they struggle when the forcing mechanisms are weak/subtle, and steering currents are light.

With the impressive SBCAPE, cold pool/outflow action should easily initiate new storm development.

Decent outflow boundary on Mt Holly radar moving SW towards N DE. Lets see how this evolves over the next hour.

Yeah its a freaking desert here now. Not easy to flood here in general. Outflow boundary action should be fun today.

That's going to be a challenge. My soil is silt and sand and drains very well. I have tried several tall fescue blends over the years and every one has struggled to thrive/survive once we get near the solstice, and the weeks beyond. I have many large trees surrounding my 'grass patch' so that greatly exacerbates the problem. My advice is to do what I did and minimize the grass area as much as possible- increase mulch areas, add raised beds, build a fire-pit with a large surround and add more plants. I still want to go total hardscape, but stone and rock isn't cheap.

Not seeing a significant signal on the means for a big SE ridge to develop and park. As long as the upper ridging generally stays to our west, we might be able to escape 100 degree heat. I am sure there will be a brief excursion or 2 regardless, at least for the UHI areas like DC.

The source of the map I posted is the US Drought Monitor, and the map was released on June 11. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

A few areas of 'abnormally dry' have developed in the region. None in VA btw. This will likely become more expansive over the next week.

Same here. Did half last night, now doing the other half.

I was just thinking this after I mowed earlier. Lush green. I need to stay ahead of the game if I have any chance of my grass not frying in the next few weeks. Despite over 2.5" of rain over the past few days, I will run the sprinkler tomorrow. Insane how quickly the soil dries out this time of year here. Being in the woods with well drained soil makes it very hard to sustain the grass during the high sun angle period, esp if it's torching and dry.

I have a mini obsession with driftwood. I have it in random places outside and inside the house. This is my driftwood/rock garden, with some potted plants and the weather station. (it sits over top the septic tank which is just below the surface, and I always had a square brown spot there lol).

This is the one.

Told ya you were gonna be in the jack zone. Pummeled!

I ran that sucker for about 2 hours yesterday in the late afternoon on the area out back where I try to keep the grass nice. So that area had like an extra half inch of rain lol.

I like using the HREF as it is an ensemble of pretty much all of the relevant meso models. It didn't quite work out yesterday for here as most of the members were not impressive at all for my yard, and I ended up getting PUMMELED. I find it to be a pretty useful tool overall though.

lol that is usually what happens here. Been jack-potting a lot so far, but it will surely change in a few weeks at peak sun angle and when the legit heat is on, like clockwork. There will be storms within a few miles in every direction, but bupkis in my yard.

It's just getting started. HREF looks pretty decent for N central/ NE MD into SE PA for a bit later.

Your yard is in the slight risk area for excessive rain. Good luck!

Impressive looking on radar. Really has blown up heading into Baltimore.

Of all the CAMs/Mesos, only the 3k NAM had anything close to this for my yard. Most had the convection moving to the NW, leaving it pretty much dry here.

That next batch building to the west over S MD should clip your area.

This is the fastest inch of rain I have seen in a long time. 1.2" now and still pouring.

Nothing severe, but an impressive storm here. Lots of T & L and an absolute deluge.

That corridor is the place to be for severe/heavy rain again it appears, as it was yesterday. I think this is the third round from Harrisburg to Lancaster to maybe Philly.

Not feelin' it for my yard over the next day or 2. My sprinkler broke yesterday. Time to head to Lowes for a new one.