CAPE

YES. Agreed.

Now I know how my poor students feel when I am trying to explain simple first order natural(open loop) transfer functions irt closed loop, negative feedback control theory.

Maybe. That would be the top end with this. My forecast is for a half inch or less. That seems completely reasonable. I will look forward to an an hour of pixie dust with a microscopic dusting lol.

If we get a west based block we should be able to mitigate the issues with the Pacific- which are not likely to disappear completely at this point. That's what I am saying.

Mount Holly's take on the weak ass Friday deal- almost exactly matches what my thoughts are/have been. I would gladly take a half inch though lol. Friday-Friday night... Low level Canadian high pressure remains nearby. Modest WAA in the low levels, but it will be another chilly day. We will also have a shortwave approaching from the northwest. This is not a strong disturbance and has limited lift, but some light snow is likely Friday afternoon and evening especially in central and southern parts of the area. Accumulations look to be near or below an inch.

Yeah if there is some coastal enhancement then not out of the question there could be an area of maybe 1-3". These sorts of events can do that, but generally further north. Seems to happen fairly often in coastal NJ.

Well... lol

I have noticed on a few runs some hints of weak coastal development- sort of looks like an inverted trough. That's always a high probability way to score some snow at this latitude.

Well that's how it would happen- I can't buy a snowflake lately from an event that looks good on guidance. Maybe this weak POS will deliver a few pity flakes lol.

That is the panel I was posting about. Very encouraging to see the EPS finally going big with the NA blocking. With the PAC likely to continue to be somewhat of a thorn in the side of our epic pattern, need the -NAO to be the real deal.

This thing has no real mechanism for significant lift other than terrain. Outside of the mountains its a wimp.

The better blocking is what I have been waiting for. Finally moving more towards the GEFS with that idea. If the Pac is going to continue eff things up some, we need a legit block.

Overall pattern looks better by day 14 on the 12z EPS- EPAC improved, mean trough in the central US instead of out west, SE ridge beat down, and probably the best looking block it has advertised in a long time. Progressing nicely.

From the time it showed up on guidance (to me) it had the look of a virga-fest/pixie dust deal with an upside of maybe an inch. The highlands will probably squeeze out a few inches.

How can it possibly be a disaster when it always looked like a weak sauce event on guidance?

I loved the run. At least 4 potential events that get forced south. Just what we want the op run to be doing at this range. Cold close by, lots of vortices still rotating around from the PV destruction, and the -NAO might be legit. Positive signs.

Got reverse NAMed. It said no snow for the coastal plain.

This is the point where I have absolutely no use for those snowfall mean maps. Pattern transition, and heading into a 7 or so day stretch with no discrete winter storm threats(not counting the Friday wimpy deal). If things progress as we think/hope, a few days from now those maps will look different.

Yeah I was just looking at the EPS temp anomalies which are a pretty good indicator. Fair amount of spread. Some members look pretty cold and others range from mild to a downright torchy look for the east.

He said that after looking at the 12z GEFS I think. It was a sweet look. Last couple runs are still okay, but not as good in the EPAC, and we see a bit of a SE ridge. As far as the Pacific never cooperating, I don't know about that. It's certainly possible it will continue to be an issue with the pattern overall. Time will tell.

0z run has the best NA look I have seen on the EPS in a while. Strong Baffin block with lower heights near the Maritimes right where we want it. Still work to do on the PAC side, and maybe it is MJO related and guidance will adjust over the next several runs. Would be a shame to get such a great look in the NA and have it mitigated by a problematic Pacific.

I actually ended up with around a quarter inch. The last hour or so was white rain.

From Mount Holly- The biggest impacts from the arctic front that will be felt tomorrow are the winds and the potential for snow squalls. It looks like a pretty good set up for convective snow showers and even snow squalls near and just behind the front. There is significant low and mid level frontogenesis and low stability in the low and mid levels (as evidenced both by CAPE values in model soundings and low equivalent potential vorticity values). The one aspect that is lacking is moisture, which will be quite limited. None the less, think there is a potential, primarily in the 15 to 21Z time frame. Have included a mention of snow showers in the forecast, but will not be issuing any winter weather advisories as it would be better covered by snow squall warnings, if the squalls develop. If they do develop, expect localized significant impacts including a quick accumulation, reduced visibility, and locally higher winds.

Friday 'event' is a weak lift pixie dust deal outside of the mountains. Nothing really going on upstairs and moving into a dry air mass. Maybe a light coating here and there.

HRRR really blows up that squall line tomorrow as it hits the coast. Snow squall chase at Rehoboth? Who wants to meet me at Dogfish?