CAPE

Even the few courses we have put online, for adults, who are motivated presumably because these courses are international requirements for them to keep doing their jobs lol, it was like herding sheep. Instructors have to constantly monitor and keep after them to login and put in the time for each module, and post on the board/chat for specific topic discussion, which substitutes for class participation.

Online can be fantastic for self motivated college students, if it is set up and managed properly. Especially Masters students for certain degree programs. The success rate falls off dramatically when you get to HS aged kids. It is so dependent on the bandwidth of the available internet technology, the parents, and the self discipline of the student, which is generally lacking at that age. So many social distractions etc.. Just my opinion.

I drink it as it was intended- a digestif. Plus the cold brew coffee version is much better imo.

A few Jagerbombs?

Mount Holly AFD on the severe threat for Wed- Kind of a mixed bag in terms of environmental parameters. Temperatures will no doubt be on the hot side, but MLCAPE values are somewhat of a question mark due to uncertainty in how much mixing will occur. While MLCAPE will certainly be sufficient for convection, there is disagreement on whether values will be "good" or "great". If dew points mix down into the 60s, convection may struggle to develop or weaken as it approaches, as some of the CAMs suggest. However, if dew points remain in the 70s, instability will be greater. So mesoanalysis with regards to the dew points will be important. In terms of shear, deep layer flow will increase as the shortwave approaches. Bulk shear has trended down a bit, and may only be in the range of 25 to 30 kt, whereas yesterday 35 kt or slightly greater looked achievable. SRH parameters also do not look as impressive, with shear profiles looking increasingly unidirectional, not to mention the generally weak low level flow. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, it is a low risk, and the better chance for that will probably be to our north where SRH is better. Given warm low levels, modest mid-level lapse rates (around 6C/km), and likelihood for linear convective organization, severe hail is also a fairly low risk. So the main hazard is going to be damaging wind. Shear values, while not great, should be sufficient for some organized multicell convection, with some of the CAMs suggesting an MCS is possible. Difficult to pin down where exactly the greatest threat is, with still a fairly wide spread in CAM solutions, hence the continued broad-brushed slight risk area in the SWODY2. Would generally favor areas further west and south (E PA and Delmarva) for the greatest chance of severe weather since they should have the best instability and since diurnal timing looks most favorable there, but a risk exists everywhere.

How about I apply. I could use a career change. Sounds fun! You wouldn't mind, would you?

One topic I teach is flow measurement principles and methods.. there is a technique based on vortex shedding- the Karman Vortex street. Cool stuff, and a phenomena observed on all scales, atmosphere included. There is also a Coriolis Mass flow meter that is very commonly used in industry, and I get to go off on a tangent and explain how the principle of operation has nothing to do with the actual Coriolis effect lol. Easy to incorporate weather into my lessons.

It is for sure. I'm not sure I could teach high school lol.

It kinda went that way!

Engineering courses. I get to teach the fun stuff- industrial automation and networking. Our students all work on big ships- merchant marines and US Navy predominately- and a few other commercial customers from the maritime industry.

I just finished converting a course to online format. That may be the only one, as our courses have major lab components, and/or physical assessments. Students really need to be here to complete the courses we offer. We will see how this goes. Cant account for everything, and ofc there is human nature, and nature of this virus. It could always go badly, as it has in several places on a larger scale when people don't comply with the simple, painless, and proven methods for minimizing spread.

I am a bit of a drama queen. We are back in session here, running well below capacity. Not your typical school. The "kids" are at least early 20s. We have folks come here from all over. At least one dude here is from Texas, and a few from California. Quite a few staff and adjunct instructors here I know are high risk, should they get infected. The COVID policy is pretty solid, but there are things I don't like.

Just looking back at 2017-18, the QBO(u30) was moving into the negative phase in Fall and stayed significantly negative through the winter. That winter was decent wrt cold outbreaks/anomalous cold, at least for Dec and Jan. I think that was technically a moderate Nina, but the QBO influence on the tendency for cold that winter may have been real. The previous winter, also a Nina, QBO was moving into positive territory and stayed positive, and it was more the typical Nina eastern US torch. Again this is cherry picking one index in isolation, and so it is always difficult to determine the actual impact. The character of the Nina events were quite different between those 2 winters.

Probably not worth doing any reanalysis at this point, but maybe he included 'cold' neutral years as well as weak Ninas. The sensible impact of the QBO generally seems nebulous, unreliable, and likely gets overwhelmed by other factors in reality. Looking at the 30mb trends, it also appears to be moving in the "wrong" direction currently.

Here it is- From DT at WxRisk.. The context is QBO values from -10 to -20 for DJF.

Yes in general, but I am pretty sure I saw somewhere that during a weak Nina, a significantly negative QBO for the winter months mitigated the usual warm departures for the eastern US. I will see if I can find it. Either way, it doesn't look good wrt the QBO, as it appears it will be heading into positive territory going forward.

Most guidance seems to favor a cold neutral or a weak Nina at this point. NOAA did issue an official La Nina watch a few days back, with a 50-55% chance for fall and winter. Probably a decent baseline to start with when you start digging into the historical data and analogs. QBO looks like it may have hit its negative peak and is heading back towards neutral. If that trend continues into fall that's not a good sign. Pretty sure there is a correlation between a significantly negative QBO during the winter months, and colder temps for the eastern US during a weak Nina.

Now is the time for optimism. We get to be all wide-eyed and dopey, trying to convince ourselves that winter really could bring the goods. These are good times. This period will last until about mid November, after which the writing will be on the wall, all hope will be lost, and all that will be left is the race to the Panic Room to get a luxury suite at the Reaper Resort before they are all taken.

We can get good outcomes in a Nina, even without a -NAO, which is generally not favored in a Nina winter. I would not expect a particularly snowy winter, but the 2 most recent Nina winters did produce some decent snow, relatively speaking, including big snow events for the coastal areas of the MA and NE. Nina winters can be especially frustrating for the MA, but not an automatic shutout by any means. If the timing had been a tad different, this could have been a more memorable period for a larger area.

Can we get some shady news on the Angelos fam?

Must have to do with Snyder if it's shady.

We only care about the NAO during the winter, so this historical series gives you a good idea of the long term values. NAO has been predominately in the +phase during the winter months over the last 50 years, with generally more instances of strongly positive episodes in winter compared to prior periods. With the recent unfavorable trends in the Pacific patterns during winter, we might be phucked in the MA for awhile. Go north. None of this stuff matters much relative to cold and snow up in NH.

Is something like that even meteorologically possible anymore?

Yes indeed. It is definitely a localized marine influenced climate they enjoy there.

Yeah it looks like we are going to have a weak Nina or a cold neutral during winter at this juncture. This is recent stuff, from a few days ago- https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume