CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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We can get good outcomes in a Nina, even without a -NAO, which is generally not favored in a Nina winter. I would not expect a particularly snowy winter, but the 2 most recent Nina winters did produce some decent snow, relatively speaking, including big snow events for the coastal areas of the MA and NE. Nina winters can be especially frustrating for the MA, but not an automatic shutout by any means. If the timing had been a tad different, this could have been a more memorable period for a larger area.
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We only care about the NAO during the winter, so this historical series gives you a good idea of the long term values. NAO has been predominately in the +phase during the winter months over the last 50 years, with generally more instances of strongly positive episodes in winter compared to prior periods. With the recent unfavorable trends in the Pacific patterns during winter, we might be phucked in the MA for awhile. Go north. None of this stuff matters much relative to cold and snow up in NH.
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Is something like that even meteorologically possible anymore?
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Yeah it looks like we are going to have a weak Nina or a cold neutral during winter at this juncture. This is recent stuff, from a few days ago- https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume
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^Easy to imagine how this will go. That EPAC ridge/downstream trough position looks precarious.. but a monster -NAO will save us this time! I wont bother posting it because it sucks beyond words, but the CanSIPS has the h5 look that will probably be much closer to reality, based on our recent run.
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CFS has been on a "good" run lately with looks like these. No qualifiers necessary. We all know the deal with long range climate models.
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Lets get this (pity) party started.
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You have had like 10" in the last month lol. How are the skeeters there?
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1.68" total here, mostly from the initial round. I guess most of the heavy stuff around midnight moved to the SW of here.
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I love the continuous low rumbling thunder after the main show moves through, esp at night. Relaxing. I was done drinking, but just poured another glass of wine.
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Nothing severe here. Some impressive T&L and wind. Heavy rain is what I was after, and I got that. 1.25" and it seems to be winding down now. Looks like some scattered stuff yet to move through, and maybe a round 2 later per radar. If not, I'm good with this. No sprinkler for a few days, maybe longer if the late week coastal deal delivers.
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Wind is impressive right now. It can stop right there. Too many trees.
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I know the feeling. Been almost a month here. This one is rocking pretty good now.
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Wicked lightning. Scared my ass back inside.
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Im headed out to the end of my driveway
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Not sure she is checking out the clouds. Doggie possession?
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Some serious looking blossoming on radar though. Maybe the mesos got it right this time.
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I take nothing for granted living in this area, which seems to always "enjoy" a midsummer desert-like climate.
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My sprinkler(and well pump) sure could use a break lol.
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Wind has picked up and temp down to 76. Lots of rumbling.
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This is looking SW and aligns with the well defined outflow boundary seen on local radar. All the action is developing "behind" me, and moving in this general direction. We shall see!
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Hearing lots of thunder. There is major action to the north, to the east, and now to the west of here. And all converging on this general area. It will be interesting to see if it can all manage to miss lol.
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Remains to be seen. Either way, I am probably going to chase if a severe cell with a wicked hail core develops within a few miles of here.
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18z 3km NAM looks fun from about your area points east.
