CAPE

84/78 here. Gross.

Sounds like you need some artificial drainage there. It literally cannot rain enough here in the summer. Soil is super well drained on the "upland" part of my property where the house/lawn is.

Not expecting much of anything over here tonight, unless some of this localized/isolated stuff passes over.. The main show with the OV energy should pass well to the NW.

Pretty nice evening. 81 and quite comfortable. View of a thin line of northward moving convection to the ESE along the MD/DE border.

It appears DOX has replaced the hard drive and executed a successful reboot. Radar back online!

It's early, and the thread is really just casual tracking/discussion of some of the indices that tend to influence the character of winter, along with some general speculation at this point. If the 'chat' makes you laugh, you may need to 'filter' a bit.

Dude. Read for context. The NBA assessed their situation, made significant adjustments, thought outside the box, and "figured out" a process that gives them a reasonable chance to complete their season. These sports leagues literally have any and all resources available to them, especially the NFL. We will see how it works out.

Seasonable would be tolerable, and the best we could hope for. Long range means suggest that is possible. But yeah hopefully it doesn't go dry. Doesn't look like that will be a problem for the next week or so anyway.

Yeah he really is, but I thought it may have been a tad harsh to start off a fresh banter thread.

I didn't think this would go well. Sources: MLB commissioner warns of shutdown if coronavirus isn't better managed https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29572885/sources-mlb-commissioner-warns-shutdown-players-do-better-job-managing-coronavirus I still don't think the NFL has a clue what they are doing, and imo there is zero chance the season is completed- if it even gets started. There is a reason players are opting out. The NFL "plan" is destined to fail. It was always going to be difficult to pull off given the large rosters and nature of the sport, but they had plenty of time to figure this out, unlimited funds to really get creative, and it appears they have done the minimum. Hope I am wrong. Only sport I enjoy watching.

We defo need to increase the beer talk in here.

One more month of Summer. I am ready for Fall. Ofc it never actually feels like Fall around here until early October- sometimes. Finished July with 6.30" of rain.

Fwiw, the new edition of the CanSIPS is out, and it still looks hideous for the winter months. Looking at h5, no HL blocking at all, big EPAC +height anomalies, +heights in the eastern third of the country. Torchy..

In theory, although it seems nebulous to me, a QBO that is trending negative heading into/during the winter months, favors a weaker PV, and increases chances for a -AO/NAO, in general. During a Nina, a +AO/NAO tends to be favored, so I suppose the idea is that if the QBO is extremely negative, and the La Nina event is on the weak side, those tendencies can be mitigated, and the chances of HL blocking episodes increase. I will leave it to someone else to dig into the data for previous Nina winters to see if this has any validity.

I brought this up on the previous page, but the only info I found was from DT, and he has some of the years wrong. I will look at the links you provided. What I recalled was- wrt La Nina winters- there is a correlation to cold eastern US when there is a very negative QBO during winter, specifically during a weak Nina. It appears we are heading towards a weak Nina for fall/winter, but not so sure the QBO is going to cooperate(looking at current trends), so this may not matter.

Kinda goes without saying, but cant beat the combo of latitude and elevation, not to mention having a persistent mechanism for orographic lift. With the crappy pattern of last winter, even at this latitude places like Canaan still managed over 100" mainly because of the persistent NW flow induced snow. That usually happens even on the backside of mild inland tracking rain storms.

LOL last winter. The antithesis. We should probably get used to it.

Epic HL blocking for the entire winter. It seemingly occurred so easily...effortless. It's like a fantasy now- something that simply cannot occur. Extinct.

Mount Holly AFD on the severe threat for Wed- Kind of a mixed bag in terms of environmental parameters. Temperatures will no doubt be on the hot side, but MLCAPE values are somewhat of a question mark due to uncertainty in how much mixing will occur. While MLCAPE will certainly be sufficient for convection, there is disagreement on whether values will be "good" or "great". If dew points mix down into the 60s, convection may struggle to develop or weaken as it approaches, as some of the CAMs suggest. However, if dew points remain in the 70s, instability will be greater. So mesoanalysis with regards to the dew points will be important. In terms of shear, deep layer flow will increase as the shortwave approaches. Bulk shear has trended down a bit, and may only be in the range of 25 to 30 kt, whereas yesterday 35 kt or slightly greater looked achievable. SRH parameters also do not look as impressive, with shear profiles looking increasingly unidirectional, not to mention the generally weak low level flow. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, it is a low risk, and the better chance for that will probably be to our north where SRH is better. Given warm low levels, modest mid-level lapse rates (around 6C/km), and likelihood for linear convective organization, severe hail is also a fairly low risk. So the main hazard is going to be damaging wind. Shear values, while not great, should be sufficient for some organized multicell convection, with some of the CAMs suggesting an MCS is possible. Difficult to pin down where exactly the greatest threat is, with still a fairly wide spread in CAM solutions, hence the continued broad-brushed slight risk area in the SWODY2. Would generally favor areas further west and south (E PA and Delmarva) for the greatest chance of severe weather since they should have the best instability and since diurnal timing looks most favorable there, but a risk exists everywhere.

Just looking back at 2017-18, the QBO(u30) was moving into the negative phase in Fall and stayed significantly negative through the winter. That winter was decent wrt cold outbreaks/anomalous cold, at least for Dec and Jan. I think that was technically a moderate Nina, but the QBO influence on the tendency for cold that winter may have been real. The previous winter, also a Nina, QBO was moving into positive territory and stayed positive, and it was more the typical Nina eastern US torch. Again this is cherry picking one index in isolation, and so it is always difficult to determine the actual impact. The character of the Nina events were quite different between those 2 winters.

Probably not worth doing any reanalysis at this point, but maybe he included 'cold' neutral years as well as weak Ninas. The sensible impact of the QBO generally seems nebulous, unreliable, and likely gets overwhelmed by other factors in reality. Looking at the 30mb trends, it also appears to be moving in the "wrong" direction currently.

Here it is- From DT at WxRisk.. The context is QBO values from -10 to -20 for DJF.

Yes in general, but I am pretty sure I saw somewhere that during a weak Nina, a significantly negative QBO for the winter months mitigated the usual warm departures for the eastern US. I will see if I can find it. Either way, it doesn't look good wrt the QBO, as it appears it will be heading into positive territory going forward.

Most guidance seems to favor a cold neutral or a weak Nina at this point. NOAA did issue an official La Nina watch a few days back, with a 50-55% chance for fall and winter. Probably a decent baseline to start with when you start digging into the historical data and analogs. QBO looks like it may have hit its negative peak and is heading back towards neutral. If that trend continues into fall that's not a good sign. Pretty sure there is a correlation between a significantly negative QBO during the winter months, and colder temps for the eastern US during a weak Nina.

Now is the time for optimism. We get to be all wide-eyed and dopey, trying to convince ourselves that winter really could bring the goods. These are good times. This period will last until about mid November, after which the writing will be on the wall, all hope will be lost, and all that will be left is the race to the Panic Room to get a luxury suite at the Reaper Resort before they are all taken.