CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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12z GFS looks nice. Cant be totally right though because it bulleyes my yard.
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CFS has a much improved look for the rest of the month compared to what it had been advertising previously. Supposedly it is pretty accurate in this range, and it aligns with what we are seeing on the global ensembles. Pretty cold look here for week 3 of December. Potentially active too with a split flow and hints of lower pressure in the SW.
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That's what I usually go with lol, especially where I live.
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If it gives you the most snow.
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Beware early NAMings lol. 6"+ for nearby highlands. 4-5" in the corridor.
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At this juncture, an inch or 2, with 3 in the favored areas seems like a realistic high bar. Low bar is the typical white rain we often see in these set ups.
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Same look just shifted NW more towards your area. Here is the snowfall total, which seems pretty reasonable to me.
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6z Euro looks pretty sweet.
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21 and very frosty this morning.
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In other weather news, the rainfall potential looks impressive for the early week period- maybe 2" in some spots. Also, Tuesday looks pretty toasty with temps perhaps well into the 60s. THEN comes our snow (fail) opportunity, where only a 30 degree drop in temps plus perfect timing with any impulses moving along the front is all that's required.
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Looking at all the latest runs, in general the best forcing for a longer duration looks to occur NW parts of the region, so even with marginal surface temps a few inches may accumulate. The fall line and points SE have some work to do, with temps mostly mid 30s and maybe not getting the best rates either. That's not a good combo, but it could change(might get worse lol).
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Looks a heck of a lot better than 12z.
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Wow what a win.
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Improving look in the NA in the LR on the 18z GEFS. Weak ridging over GL with a 50-50 low. Xmas eve eve.
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You need to stop by sometime.
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He adds a big zero wherever he posts. Unfortunately he wont stay put and just crap in the NYC forum.
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Perfect early winter day. Low of 29, and a high of 41. Full sun. Been outside working in the yard all day. Love it.
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AO looks pretty neutral to me in the LR on the ensembles. Maybe slightly +, but trending less positive than it is in the short term. Seeing some hints here and there of heights building in the HL region as well, but who knows how it all shakes out at this point. One thing I like is, regardless of what models seem to advertise at h5, ground truth reality at verification is we are pretty consistently staying seasonably cold. That's a good thing IMO.
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Euro jackpots Bob Chill with a solid mulch covering
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12z Euro is not at all enthusiastic about the mid week deal.
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Ofc if mid next week doesn't work out, there is always the storm after the storm after the storm.
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This has been a trend in recent runs overall. 6z GFS took a step in that direction. The 0z GFS, as well as the CMC, had nice upper jet positioning for our area and impressive 700 mb FGEN. Need to get the boundary far enough S/E though as the impulses ride along it otherwise its 38 degree rain, a few splatty flakes, then clearing.
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Context Yoda. We were discussing the 18z EPS mean snowfall, verbatim. You are having some issues parsing lately.
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Much more so for your region than the DC area.
