CAPE

Not pretty. The +AO/+NAO/+EPO trifecta provides literally no mechanism for cold air delivery into the mid latitudes. Hopefully it is a temporary state, or the guidance is currently overstating that look.

Dude. Chill. He played with no signs of a serious injury after being dinged a little.

It definitely can happen. But otoh, you play your key players in an absolutely meaningless game and one or more sustains a serious injury, then what? Fans and sports media kill you and you might lose in the first round anyway. You trust the coaches and players to prepare and be ready to go, well rested. Should not be a problem.

What gave you that idea? Honestly, I am pretty objective. Took me a long time to wrap my head around the fact that this team is pretty darn good.

No reason in the world to play Jackson a single play next week. Should be able to handle the Steelers at home with RG3 under center.

After a super slow start by Ravens standards,. that second quarter was a WOW. Mastery running the 2 min offense for TDs- TWICE. Vintage Jackson. He has all the skills + the intangibles. After the initial drive in the third quarter, it was pretty much lights out for the Browns.

Yeah it builds the NAO ridge week 4-5, so who knows how real that is. Looks somewhat positive/neutral before that. Hopefully the EPO ridge gets into a better spot, because I still have my doubts about a sustained NA block, and as you said without it we fight the tendency for SE ridging given the advertised the EPO location verbatim.

Agreed. If the CFS actually has a clue, I would be ok with what it's advertising overall, with an EPO ridge and a mostly neutral AO/NAO look, and a piece of the TPV on our side, although not necessarily in an ideal spot. This look would be acceptable for mid-late Jan:

Another cold, frosty morning. 20 degrees here. Looking forward to temps above 40 today. Its been a nice cold shot the past week, but I am ready for a few 50 degree days before we plunge into deep winter for early Jan.

Beginning right around the new year continues to look potentially active, with at least somewhat colder air in place. 6z GEFS upped the game a bit. First week of Jan has what looks to be multiple waves tracking just to our south. Rolling through the p-type panels for that period is a fun exercise, and it is also reflected on the snowfall mean.

Glancing at the 0z means, looks like straight up blue across the top at h5 in the LR. +EPO/+AO/+NAO. The hints of a building EPO ridge from previous runs are gone for now(or delayed). Despite that, we manage at least seasonable cold, as advertised. Likely some IOD/MJO 'conflicts' still playing into the currently advertised pattern evolution beyond day 10.. The latest CFS weeklies look pretty nice weeks 2-6. Active look week 2, and general cold beyond that with a -EPO, and even hints of a -NAO week 5.

Yeah probably a good reason to keep our sights on the day 10 period- Interesting enough looks on the EPS and the GEFS for around the New Year, and beyond that is probably more muddled than usual.

I don't hate that look at all.

Its not a bad look in the LR on the mean, but realistically the h5 pattern won't look like that, as there is quite a bit of spread on the individual members. Verbatim the mean looks cold for much of the lower 48, but its likely due to disagreement among the members on location of the main features. We are not likely going to see low h5 height anomalies covering most of the Continental US as depicted towards the end of the run.

I have been busy having fun and not paying a lot of attention to the LR big picture the past few days(a good thing) but there is a lot of good stuff happening here.

16 here this morning

So whats the latest? Winter ever coming? Cancel? I was too busy yesterday enjoying the cold, ice, and perpetual snow showers to check.

Heavy snow squall here in Gettysburg. Everything is covered. Seen more winter today than I will probably see over the next 3 weeks.

A few shots I took from Washington Monument State Park today, and also a vineyard near Thurmont. Quite the ice storm they had in the higher elevations of this area. Driving up 15 to Gettysburg, the Catoctin ridges are still all frosted over. Quite pretty. Lots of snow flurry activity too.

Yeah I can. That doesn't sound right. Maybe there is a setting to suppress "likes" or something.

Wont make any difference. Chiefs claimed him because they lost Okafor to an injury on Sunday, so they are hoping he can be a situational pass rusher I guess. He has tended to run out of gas this time of year later in his career, and wasn't doing much for Arizona. I doubt the Ravens would have wanted him if he had cleared waivers. Who were they going to drop from their roster just to give Suggs, who chose to leave, the chance to some back and win a SB? I don't think that would have gone over too well in that locker room.

Getting some decent showers now.

This ass-clown Dr. Dews from the NE forum seems to like to come to ours and laugh at serious posts. Never contributes anything of value. GTFOH.

36 and drizzle. Temp rose a couple degrees overnight. What a cold, miserable period. After the snow/sleet/rain of yesterday morning, it's been a drizzle fest here. Barely a quarter inch of rain total so far.

0z EPS at the end of the run looks pretty decent. A workable pattern with a split flow and probably normal temps for the east. 0z GEFS is similar but has a deeper western US/EPac trough and hangs onto a weak EC ridge. Looks good up top though, NA in particular. Both have colder air building into the western half of Canada courtesy of the EPO ridge. It's a waiting/monitoring game now to see how long it takes to get some of that cold delivered to the eastern US. Verbatim, the EPS look would probably put us back in the game a bit sooner.