CAPE

Actually mostly snow here now and coming down moderately. A legit deck/car topper. Temp is 34.

Its pretty normal to not see any significant snow in Dec here, so this "unfavorable" period doesn't bother me at all. No signs of days and days in the 50s and 60s, so it will generally feel seasonable. I have not looked at the latest ensembles yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if something interesting pops up in the period after Xmas and before New Years.

Snow/sleet mix started falling here in the last 20 mins. Came in too late, and with a temp of 35 and upper levels warming, this wont amount to much more than a trace, as expected.

I have agreed with you on this. There wont be a "torch" in the sense of ground truth warmth, but with the Pac in hostile mode and warm upper levels (briefly lets hope) its a pretty bad look for snow chances over the next 10 days.

We lose the Atlantic though At least we should have some legit cold between the cutters.

Looks like we have a trend rather than just model noise now. Also looks like the TPV is re-positioning itself in a more favorable location.

@mappy

It will be interesting so see how this plays out. Sources: Terrell Suggs angling to be claimed by Ravens only https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28298112/sources-terrell-suggs-angling-claimed-ravens-only I think some team will claim him regardless, just to keep the Ravens from doing so. Ravens could clearly use a situational pass rusher, but who knows if they are willing to make a roster move at this point for a player who chose to leave in free agency for more money, and is well past his prime. Given Dean Pees in the DC for the Titans, and they could use his services in competing for a playoff spot, I expect they are the most likely team to claim him.

Goff is awful.

Pathetic showing by the Lambs.

Me? LOL I'm working for you dude.

Go Rams. They done good since the Ravens absolutely destroyed them.

Nice job Eagles!

Yeah it's pretty tough these days. Glad I am a Ravens fan.

Eagles need to dig in here. Its the freaking Redskins FFS. Cant have Dallas winning that division.

It's when we drink too much beer earlier than we should. Also describes the 18z GFS, which coincides.

It really wasn't all that sudden. And all that despair will be undone if HH somehow delivers a pre-Christmas snowstorm, even if it is wholly not believable.

Definitely some notable improvements on both the GEFS and EPS today. More so on the GEFS as compared to the 0z run, particularly the TPV sliding southeastward in the LR. Both showing signs in the EPO domain. Need a few more runs to discern noise from an actual favorable pattern progression.

Discussing depressing weather reality in the LR thread doesn't go over very well. Also less chance of sending panicky weenies off the ledge, although that is definitely not a concern of mine.

Looks a bit better than the 0z run. Hint of a ridge building over AK, and the TPV is migrating SE towards Hudson Bay at the end of the run.

The EPS has been pretty steadfast on that idea, and your early concerns seem warranted at this point. GEFS had been hinting at ridge development in the EPO/WPO regions, but has since backed off and the 0z GEFS run arguably looked worse than the EPS at the end of the run. Doesn't look like we will get enough help up top to mitigate the unfavorable Pac either. Generally a weakly negative to neutral AO/NAO look in the LR. In monitoring mode now. Still very possible this ends up being a fairly transient period. I know the reality of my general climo, so I never expect much frozen in December anyway, outside of a year like 2009 when it was clear we had a textbook pattern emerging.

Yeah it's beyond denying it at this point. It's Happening!! Hopefully it is relatively short lived. As depicted, not a huge fan of the potential coastal next weekend being a snow producer for the general MA region. Its an odd setup all around, not to mention the cold looks to be running away during that time. We just cant know, however.

Looks like a fun game in KC today.

My bold prediction- We enjoy a mild Xmas courtesy of the Pacific onslaught and we get our snow chances afterwards, as usual.

Kinda chucked at this from Mount Holly AFD this morning- High pressure will build into the region to close the week, with continued cold temperatures but dry conditions. Models are suggesting the development of a coastal low next weekend, but this is approaching la-la-land in model world. Obviously, we will monitor this potential in the coming days.