CAPE

Remember to never confuse yellow snow with a lemon snow cone.

How about the Panasonic?

If you buy the latest CFS weeklies, the PAC starts to get right after the first few days of Jan. Gets really good after that. Zero NA blocking though, so its an EPO/WPO driven pattern, but looks generally cold. Ofc who knows how things will evolve in reality.

Mostly Bob.

I think Bob and i just made yellow snow in the LR thread.

A good example of a block was what we saw in the EPO/WPO domain back in November. That upper ridging was persistent for many days, and even then when it tried to break down briefly it quickly redeveloped. That persistence was the mechanism that delivered the unseasonably cold outbreaks we experienced.

Here is a fairly basic definition. This is not what we are seeing currently. We are seeing transient ridging episodes , but not a blocked flow. "Blocking events are associated with long-lasting and slow-moving high-pressure systems that "block" westerly winds in the mid- and high-latitudes, causing the normal eastward progress of weather systems to stall." When I see 50/50 lows flying northward into the upper latitudes, that tells me there is no NA block. That is not to say a bootleg/transient ridge in the NA with a 50/50 low is not beneficial, but because both are on the move, it requires more precise timing.

Advertised LR pattern may be wrong. MJO forecast may be wrong. Do all the global ensembles agree? I know you know this, but the MJO is not the sole driver of the long wave pattern either.

Outside of lucking into something with perfect timing, we really need a legitimate (sustained) -AO/-NAO to overcome the unfavorable EPAC. No idea how long that will persist. I hope it is fairly transient but we just cannot know. And IMO we are not seeing strong signs of real/legit/sustained HL blocking on the means- yet. Not raging + either, but neutral-ish probably wont get it done if the PAC remains fairly hostile. eta- Looking at the EPS at h5 and also the teleconnections, the period(as advertised) between the 16th and the 22nd, would qualify as a modest period of blocking. That window does look interesting, esp towards the 22/23rd(when NA ridging looks to break down). We have seen some nice op runs lately, but ofc the Pac is less than ideal. Definitely worth monitoring.

I see it. Its a high amped, fast/progressive pattern. I wish people would stop using the term "blocking" every time they see a blob of red on an h5 panel in the "right place" that lasts a few hours. That is NOT a block. We are seeing the opposite of a blocked flow now, and also going forward (advertised) in the LR.

Problem here is there really is no NA blocking and that impressive 50-50 races away into the NA. That is the general problem when there is no legit block. Transient higher h5 heights in the NAO domain do not qualify as a block. It can work, but It is temporary and requires damn near perfect timing.

Here comes our next HH opportunity. Holy 50-50 low batman. The High over the GLs is on the weaker side, but at least its a high and not a low there.

Looks like a scenario that might occur in a La Nina.

Now that is an interesting progression- The Low that exits off the GA coast gets captured by that NS energy and SNE gets nailed lol.

Just a few hundred miles north and we are in the game. And plenty of time to get there!

Oh I agree. "Right where we want it". Well, if it was the GFS we would be saying that.

It was at 0z but it took the low to central Florida lol. Looks like its on the way to doing it again this run.

Always good to have the highs and the lows in the right places on approach. Big ass H above the GLs, and a low off the Maritimes.

@showmethesnow Nice write-up. I am inclined to agree. Probably the warmest periods we see will be when we get into the warm sector of storms taking unfavorable tracks, which will be brief. At this point I doubt we see a period with multiple sunny days and temps in the 50s and 60s. The NA should be favorable enough to keep the immediate east coast on the cool side. That being said, chances of seeing a region wide legit frozen event going forward towards Christmas looks pretty low at this point. If the pattern evolves ideally, the days thereafter might get more interesting.

Or they drink Guinness, which is like 4% abv. Pretty close to water.. My HH stout from Oliver Brewing Company in Bmore was 10%, and thus my hallucinations were much more impressive.

Not a bad looking HH GEFS snowfall map. Almost all of that is from the 20th through the 29th in our region.

Probably not. I have those same kinds of reactions when my buddy from NH texts me photos of him skiing/snowshoeing near Mt Washington.

I honestly don't see a "torch", but ofc that is relative. There will probably be a week or so centered on Xmas of temps generally in the 45-50 degree range at worst. But yeah, wrt to snow potential, that is a virtual shutout. Even on the EPS, looking at the last 4-5 runs, there are indications this will be transient and the pattern may evolve to a more favorable look as soon as the last few days of the month.

It wont matter. That's a rainstorm. And that is not blocking- it is a fairly transient upper ridge. In order to overcome a hostile Pac, a legit block that actually extends into the NA for multiple days, with a quasi-stationary 50-50 low stuck underneath, would give us a fighting chance. Bootleg stuff- an h5 ridge near GL with a blue ball racing northeastward through the 50-50 region, is a thread the needle deal, and indicative of a lack of true blocking. Outside of perfect timing/a lot of luck, that likely wont work out well for the majority of our region, esp when the EPAC is hostile.