CAPE

Mount Holly removed any mention of snow from the forecast here. They are expecting no more than a coating anywhere outside of their NE PA/NW NJ zones. It would take some dynamics and heavy precip/banding to overcome the warm boundary layer, esp for the coastal plain. Not sure that is very likely at this point. The usual places like Westminster will probably manage a sloppy inch or 2.

The way to sugar coat it is to not buy it, and/or believe it will be transient. At least the look up top is respectable as the PAC shifts to an unfavorable look on guidance. Another few runs and we will have a better idea if this is just a reshuffle and the pattern rolls forward, or if it will stick for awhile. I am inclined to go with persistence at this point.

I concur. Still could be a total flop, but cant see it being more than a 1-3 deal at this point.

Jets are pretty beat up and lack talent overall. Unless the Ravens simply overlook them(not likely) it should be a pretty easy win. The last 2 games are more concerning, as they are divisional and are always hard fought. We owe the Browns as they kicked our buts at home early.

Yeah there were a handful of odd play calls. Also I was not impressed with the undisciplined play of the D down the stretch, despite how well they played overall. Up 24-9 they let them back in the game with some really stupid penalties at critical times.

What a great defensive play to end the game. Poor Brady. Good day for the Ravens.

That's it KC. Show the cheaters you ain't messing around.

It will take some serious FGEN/banding to overcome the marginal boundary layer temps, esp for the corridor points east.

Weenie maps make me happy. Even if there is not a chance in hell they will verify.

Its Dec 8th dude, and there have been "flakes" in many locales. Even some accumulation in places- like Richmond and Salisbury.

That's usually how these setups play out. I will remain in weenie mode for now because the clown maps from most guidance say my yard might see an inch +.

Mount Holly's take in their afternoon AFD- Tuesday night and Wednesday...Still considerable uncertainty through this period. The front should progress further off shore, but the mid and upper level trough digs in closer to the region, so most guidance depicts precipitation continuing overnight and through much of the day on Wednesday. Without significant cyclogensis just off shore, it would be difficult to get that much precipitation behind the front in this kind of pattern as we should have persistent dry air advection behind the front. If we do have precipitation into Wednesday morning thanks to significant cold air advection we should see precipitation change over to snow mostly north and west of the fall line, and a rain/snow mix along the coastal plains. As mentioned by the previous shift, even if it does happen, it will likely be little more than a nuisance snow..

Damn the Niners are gonna win this game.

Ravens were awful regardless. All but one penalty on the final 2 drives were real and self inflicted. Luckily the Bills were not very accepting of the Raven's charitable gestures.

WOW at the NO- SF game. Brees blew up that vaunted pass D today.

That was some seriously undisciplined play on those last few drives. Not pretty, but it's a win.

TY M. Peters.

Complete self destruction by the Ravens D in the fourth quarter, Pathetic.

Just missing on some passes. Keep running the ball like that and there will be more opportunities downfield.

Yeah I like the persistence of the key features thus far. We have remained generally cold, with some brief warm-ups over the last month or so. No hints of a prolonged shutout pattern. Just keep that going heading into peak climo and we should be in good shape.

Looking at the 12z GEFS, any significant degradation of the Pacific pattern looks brief. The deep trough off the west coast progresses east, and heights are building behind it, with lower heights near the Aleutians and hints of ridging over AK at the end of the run. Looks like a general continuation of a progressive, changeable pattern.

I posted the third week of the month. CFS craps up the Pac some beyond that, but it has what looks to be a -AO and a neutral NAO, so the EC still looks to be in decent shape.

Yup. Was watching h5 as it was rolling and I liked what I saw. Not a huge difference, but enough.