CAPE
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Yeah those soundings were odd looking. Also the 2 precip maxes looked unusual.The eastern max seems to be pretty verifying well. Most guidance was pinpointing the best area of forcing over DE and esp NJ. Radar returns look impressive right now. Might be some legit 2"+ amounts there.
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Considering it was a minor event of short duration, and with it coming behind the front with CAA and tendency for drying, the guidance did pretty good in general. The one nitpick is temps- most guidance had temps here 34-35 while the snow was falling. Had me envisioning white rain. The temperature here dropped quickly behind the front though, and when the sleet/snow started falling, it was right at 32. Models did indicate a shallow warm nose aloft so the sleet at the beginning was expected.
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Winding down here now. Looks like about a half inch. Looks pretty out there. Oddly, temps weren't an issue. Needed more qpf.
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Woke up to sleet about an hour ago. All snow now. Had a heavy burst with big flakes, but its lightened up a bit now. Solid coating on the ground, car , and deck. When I went to bed the temp was 49. Its now right at 32. A bit surprised.
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Can we get a few radar hallucinations up in here?
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Goldsboro UHI.
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Oh yeah. I'm feelin' it.
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After a high of 58, its down to 50!!!
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Yeah that is pretty much a big nothing for everywhere. Verbatim it might be a sloppy inch or so on Parrs.
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They have Trace Mcsorley, who was so impressive they had to keep a third QB. He is a poor man's Jackson, and more talented than RG3 at this point. Ravens have 3 QBs who can run this offense, which is a nice luxury to have.
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If they play they way they are capable, he will sit the second half against the jets, and have 10 days to "rest". And the pundits will get their wish- to see RG3 get substantial playing time
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LOL at these people on the ESPN talk shows discussing the possibility of Lamar not playing Thursday. OFC he will play. A sore quad, which is probably overstated, wont keep him out. And he practiced today. The angle- RG3 is a capable backup and it would be cool to see him get a start. GTFOH.
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^Problem with that southern/eastern 'band' is temps. That map might be close to representative if we weren't talking warm, soggy ground and surface temps in the 34-35 degree range. I would totally take it verbatim if we had cold ground and temps around 30. As it is, anywhere SE of the fall line is looking at a half inch or less with extremely poor accumulating efficiency, unless some intense banding sets up overhead.
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18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye.
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I am just hoping to see some splatty wet flakes on the windshield driving to work tomorrow morning.
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I didn't dig into the individual members, but took a peak at the EPS mean, and it depicts a primary low tracking up towards Pittsburgh, then a coastal developing off the MA. I would imagine there are a fair amount of members with the TPV significantly interacting with the southern energy.
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Agree. That was my overall take looking at the 12z GFS op run.
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12z Euro ens mean has a primary low tracking up to N WV, then a low developing off the DE coast. Looks like a mix to rain then ending as snow verbatim. Long way to go but in general at this juncture it looks like a mixed deal and favoring NW portions of the region.
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Not seeing the dynamics required on the Euro for the lower elevations to overcome temps in the mid 30s.
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Does 936-1212 still work?
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12z Euro is a tad underwhelming. Not too bad for NW folks, but looks like mostly white rain on the coastal plain.
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Gotta have some laughs. Some funny people up in here. Different brands.
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People who cannot drive in snow need to be warned that snow is imminent, so they can prepare for driving in the snow, which they cannot do.
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We know the op runs will struggle with the details. In general, because we don't have a true block, for this to work it will take some precise timing. That 50-50 low is a transient feature, and the interplay between the TPV over central Canada and the southern energy will be critical. The 0z run got it done by keeping some separation- not capturing the shortwave, and the 50-50 low was in perfect position with ridging over the top.
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Its not ignoring the block- there really isn't much of a block this run. Too much interaction, too soon between the NS and the ss shortwave.
