CAPE

Well, Mount Holly went with a fairly widespread High Wind Warning. I thought it might only be hoisted for the immediate coastal counties of DE and NJ.. ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with 50 to 60 mph gusts expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central, northern and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday that could result in even stronger wind gusts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

I have a feeling the watch here will end up being an advisory, with a warning along the coasts of DE and NJ, and also the western highlands.

High wind watch in effect here, Oh joy, haven't had enough of that. Monday looks interesting for sure. Latest AFD from Mt Holly on the potential: A significant storm system producing both strong and damaging winds and heavy rain is gearing up to affect the region from late Sunday night through Monday. Broad low pressure will continue to develop and organize over the Midwest Sunday evening as a deep upper trough digs through the western U.S. Meanwhile, out ahead of this low, a strong 70-80 kt LLJ at 925 mb and 80-90 kt winds at 850 mb will lift through the region Monday morning through Monday afternoon. In addition, a southerly pressure gradient will tighten over the region as the low rapidly intensifies, lowering from around 994 mb Sunday evening over the Midwest to around 980 mb by Monday evening. The NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate a low level inversion that would suggest that the strongest winds would remain aloft. However, with a tight gradient, and with heavy rain showers through the morning, there should be strong enough mixing. Generally expecting wind gusts of 40-50 mph in the southern Poconos, far NW New Jersey, and through the Lehigh Valley. For the rest of southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, the rest of New Jersey, and Delmarva, wind gusts will generally range from 50-60 mph, and there is the potential for even stronger winds right along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, possibly as high as 60-70 mph. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for most of the region, except for the far northern zones.

Significant areas with only 80-95% of normal over a 90 day period? that's some serious shiit. My yard is only at 115. I am beginning to worry.

Did it actually snow before Jan 21? Oh yeah, I somehow managed to pick up a half inch at some point.

12z 3km NAM is wholly unimpressive, but the 12z HRRR gets a modest line of convection going for N central MD later on.

Looks like a there is good amount of shear but pretty weak instability to establish/sustain updrafts. If the warm front clears early enough, and some places can get a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s, might be enough to kick off a few decent cells ahead of the cold front. This is all above my pay grade though lol.

Mid Atlantic Fail Index.

Here is one- although it is 4 letters. MAFI. It is almost always extremely positive.

That MD/DE map has some flaws in it. While interior and upper portions of the Delmarva away from the coast(and not close to either bay) tend to get more snow locally- 18" or so is about right- places right along the coast are too high on that map. More like 10-12" along the immediate coast, including Lewes. Also that area in NE MD near the bay is exaggerated way too low imo. Easton does not average more snow than Elkton.

Roses are red. violets are blue There is no such thing as normal Especially when it comes to you

Get creative psu. You owe us a poem. In an attempt to make yet another pointless Tenman thread epic, it has been hijacked. We are generally keeping the "what went wrong" theme however.

Can you put this in the form of a poem? Thanks!

Stratospheric vortex, consolidated Tightly wound ball of doom Weather weenies migrate to the panic room Bring it to an end The limitless winter gloom

This is true, but let me help you with the rhyming part... Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong Move north where winters are cold and long Without lots of luck, winters here are brief, and suck

For snow, negative AO is number one In absence, an EPO ridge may mitigate Otherwise DCA is done

You are in a groove.

Poetry section starts here. Go!

You answered it all in your op. No one knows. It's in the hands of god. NWP is useless hocus-pocus. end thread/

Another awful Tenman thread. Poetry?

Just to expand the futility area a bit, Philly is at 0.3". Their worst snowfall season was 1972-73, recording a trace. As of now, this winter would rank second, just ahead of 1997-98, with 0.8".

Latest EPS forecast could very well be "wrong". Thing is, I simply made a post stating what it is currently depicting, and that it wasn't good. Never claimed it was going to verify. No hitching of wagons. Now straighten your panties- they be all bunched up.

C'mon. A met as experienced as murky knows the CFS nails these indices far more often than the EPS. CFS is literally a model of consistency. Almost always verifies. Hardly ever vacillates.