CAPE

What kills the east of I-95 area with this further north track is the lower level temps. Look at 925 mb and its above freezing through much of the event. It is not a good setup for advecting in colder/drier air from the north either. Unless the better forcing/heavier precip gets in here, its going to be white rain for the last hour or so as modeled. Most guidance has the best lift from central into NE MD now though. Perfect setup for a quick thump up your way.

I might have some hair if I didn't like snow + live in a place where it seldom occurs.

Why are people so concerned about how much sun there is this morning? It wont make a damn bit of difference come game time.

Prior to today's 12z run(which ji seemed to suddenly approve of lol), the EPS was showing incremental improvement in the Pacific. PNA has been trending towards neutral. Aligns with the latest MJO forecasts, taking the MC wave into the COD after briefly moving into phase 6. Should it reemerge, it looks like it would be in 7,8. or 1. In contrast, GEFS has been taking a high amplitude wave into phase 6. I guess what I am saying is, there are signs of a less hostile PAC, particularly on the EPS. Absolutely want the HL blocking, but hopefully it wont have to be the sole savior for winter.

If -ao is our best indicie for snow.... PV becomes elongated in the LR on the GEFS, and maybe the building upper ridge near Scandinavia can further perturb it. QBO continues to drop and that should correlate to a weaker PV. We shall see.

Not a thing of beauty or anything but EPS showing continued improvement in the Pac. PNA trending towards neutral in the LR, mean trough is further east, and the SE ridge is flatter/suppressed. Still has +heights building around Scandinavia, but not making much progress towards GL yet.

Graphically:

Outcome of the coin toss is part of the game.

I actually like it. If the D cant keep the other team from scoring a TD on their first drive, they don't deserve a chance. Hold em to a FG.

WOW. Congrats all you Vikings fans. Great win. Happy for Cousins.

Love Drew Brees but actually cheering for the Vikings here.

EPS has been ever so slowly trending towards a neutral, and possibly a +PNA over recent runs. Good sign.

There is still a weak signal for something around the 17th on the GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS. Something to keep an eye on, as beyond the next few days there probably wont be much winter weather to be tracked for a while.

Picked up 0.87" of rain over the last couple days. 1.62" over the last 7 days.

The totality of his contributions: He is more useless than snow88.

Looks like a rainy game too. Both teams like to run, and so it will come down to which D can get the other team's O off the field, and turnovers. Titans are a tad scary to me, because they do play smash mouth, and are playing loose. That being said, their Dean Pees led defense ranked 21st this season, and the Ravens should be able to move the ball effectively and control the clock.

Towards D15, the latest EPS and GEPS are still showing signs of slight improvement on the Pac side, especially the EPS, and have +heights from Scandinavia building into GL, the GEPS in particular. GEFS looks more bleak, and suggests we have a long, long way to go.

Sounds awesome!

^Very well could be the Ravens opponent next week. I expect the Pats will find a way to beat the Titans in an ugly game.

Damn. Impressive opening drive by the Bills.

I wouldn't know...

C'mon dude, it is clear you are on the payroll of 007. No worries. You aren't the only one.

Oh I don't mind imperials at all. lol. Prefer them actually. I have tried quite a few from Mispillion. Not tried that one yet though. Love Milford, DE. Such a comfy, quaint town. Speaking of Imperials, I cracked open that Oak aged Vanilla WWS. It was calling me from its very temporary home in the fridge.

There have been some hints of improvement on the PAC side for the fist time in a while. Latest MJO forecasts suggest tropical convection may actually progress off of the MC, and there are subtle signs of improvement in the central/eastern PAC on the EPS and the GEPS, including an increase in the PNA beyond D10. Might be noise. We should know in a few days, lol.