CAPE
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Looking at all the latest runs, in general the best forcing for a longer duration looks to occur NW parts of the region, so even with marginal surface temps a few inches may accumulate. The fall line and points SE have some work to do, with temps mostly mid 30s and maybe not getting the best rates either. That's not a good combo, but it could change(might get worse lol).
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Looks a heck of a lot better than 12z.
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Wow what a win.
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Improving look in the NA in the LR on the 18z GEFS. Weak ridging over GL with a 50-50 low. Xmas eve eve.
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You need to stop by sometime.
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He adds a big zero wherever he posts. Unfortunately he wont stay put and just crap in the NYC forum.
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Perfect early winter day. Low of 29, and a high of 41. Full sun. Been outside working in the yard all day. Love it.
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AO looks pretty neutral to me in the LR on the ensembles. Maybe slightly +, but trending less positive than it is in the short term. Seeing some hints here and there of heights building in the HL region as well, but who knows how it all shakes out at this point. One thing I like is, regardless of what models seem to advertise at h5, ground truth reality at verification is we are pretty consistently staying seasonably cold. That's a good thing IMO.
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Euro jackpots Bob Chill with a solid mulch covering
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12z Euro is not at all enthusiastic about the mid week deal.
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Ofc if mid next week doesn't work out, there is always the storm after the storm after the storm.
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This has been a trend in recent runs overall. 6z GFS took a step in that direction. The 0z GFS, as well as the CMC, had nice upper jet positioning for our area and impressive 700 mb FGEN. Need to get the boundary far enough S/E though as the impulses ride along it otherwise its 38 degree rain, a few splatty flakes, then clearing.
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Context Yoda. We were discussing the 18z EPS mean snowfall, verbatim. You are having some issues parsing lately.
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Much more so for your region than the DC area.
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Why are you trying to ruin my troll game?
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In a fast flow without a block, we will continuously run the risk of a low appearing over the GLs, and Higher pressure off the maritimes. The exact inversion of what is ideal. Timing will need to be damn near perfect.
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You tell me Yoda. There is nothing "textbook" about this upcoming advertised pattern in my view. I have been consistent on that. That doesn't mean parts of our region wont see some frozen.
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I just hope we can all score a few inches and then watch it violently wash away with a mild super soaker a couple days later.
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What a forum divider on the 18z GFS. Sorry for you NW folks who get fringed.
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Yup. I mentioned this after the 12z run.
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Forum divider
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I think a lot of what we have seen lately (at verification) is transient ridging in the NAO space as a result of pieces of the TPV rotating through and pumping up a ridge there. Not that that is a bad thing, but it is really a bootleg/transient -NAO and not a true block. If the overall pattern is supportive, we can score with that, but timing is critical. That's my take.
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Nothing is ever a lock when it comes to predicting a -NAO. We will know when it happens in real time.
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This Pecan Pie Porter is pretty freaking good.
