CAPE

Wicked lightning. Scared my ass back inside.

Im headed out to the end of my driveway

Not sure she is checking out the clouds. Doggie possession?

Some serious looking blossoming on radar though. Maybe the mesos got it right this time.

I take nothing for granted living in this area, which seems to always "enjoy" a midsummer desert-like climate.

My sprinkler(and well pump) sure could use a break lol.

Wind has picked up and temp down to 76. Lots of rumbling.

This is looking SW and aligns with the well defined outflow boundary seen on local radar. All the action is developing "behind" me, and moving in this general direction. We shall see!

Hearing lots of thunder. There is major action to the north, to the east, and now to the west of here. And all converging on this general area. It will be interesting to see if it can all manage to miss lol.

Remains to be seen. Either way, I am probably going to chase if a severe cell with a wicked hail core develops within a few miles of here.

18z 3km NAM looks fun from about your area points east.

The HRRR just went from giving my yard 2-2.5" for multiple runs, to about 0.3" at 19z. Now that is much more believable lol.

One thing that is "concerning" is the tendency for the storm motions around the initial Philly complex to move more SE than SW. With such weak flow, and localized boundaries, I really dont trust the CAM's skill in accurately depicting where new convection will fire. IMO they struggle when the forcing mechanisms are weak/subtle, and steering currents are light.

With the impressive SBCAPE, cold pool/outflow action should easily initiate new storm development.

Decent outflow boundary on Mt Holly radar moving SW towards N DE. Lets see how this evolves over the next hour.

Yeah its a freaking desert here now. Not easy to flood here in general. Outflow boundary action should be fun today.

How are the skeeters down there?

You at OC?

Hopefully you were able to keep your distance during the altercation, since this dude was not wearing his mask properly, and I am sure he wasn't talking softly lol. The spittle was flying, for sure.

LOL @ very upsetting. Maybe that dude would be "less upset", if he looked at the current runs of the useless CFS, instead of the useless CanSIPS. Dec and Feb look particularly decent.

Fwiw, latest ENSO update from CPC/NCEP still has equal chances of ENSO neutral or La Nina for fall and winter. My gut says weak Nina for the winter months, but that is above my pay grade.

I believe this winter will likely fall in the solar min period, or very close. What that means exactly as far as sensible weather, I think is highly debatable. Just because a solar min may have had some correlation to say, HL blocking in some past winters, does not mean that will be the case with the upcoming winter. Plenty of other factors to consider, with many being nebulous, not to mention these "relationships" can shift back and forth over time. Throw in climate change and, well, you get the picture. We just can't know.

Well that went down easy, and quick. Might have another.

Summer Crush NE DIPA. Its fruity!