CAPE

Who is doing that?

Yes. Of course he said that. He may be right, but he is nothing if not predictable.

D10 op runs may be next to useless, but imo that is not the case at all when using ensembles to monitor the 'big picture' pattern progression. Can't look at one run in isolation, but trends can be identified over several runs. They certainly are not very useful for gleaning any small scale details at that range.

The 0z GEFS also has a notable lack of blue up top at the end of its run, with hints of ridging building back into the NAO space.

EPS has been muting the +AO/NAO look in recent runs, and is now suggesting it will indeed be short lived. Showmethesnow highlighted this in his write up yesterday morning. And just like that, we have this advertised look 10 days into December.

Could be. I hope not. They should be prepared, but sometimes things just go the opposing team's way especially when they are at home and really need it.

Who am I kidding? Too bad the Cowboys would be probably the 8th or 9th best team in the AFC.

Wait- You have actually received compensation? @WxWatcher007 whats the deal here?

This might be the only time in the history of my NFL fanaticism that I am going to root for the Cowboys..and not just root- but emphatically root- for them to win.

I am a tad "worried" about tomorrow night for some reason. On paper the Ravens should win easily. But the law of averages tends to rear up in the NFL. Ravens are on a roll, on the road, against a team that really needs it, add in a few untimely turnovers...ok i am done now. Ravens are bullies. end of/

Eagles O is putrid. I know they have issues with the receivers, but still.

Shhh. My trolling is very subtle.

I see your concerns and ofc we all know(I think) how important the AO is for above normal snow chances in the general DC area. Outside of having a +AO with sustained ridging in the EPO/WPO domains and a ton of luck, it's pretty difficult to overcome if it ends up a persistent feature during winter.

Yeah I still think the threat centered on Dec 2 is pretty low probability for our region, but not a total lost cause. I keep thinking the better shot at something tracking underneath and producing a frozen event is NS energy dropping in a few days later, not that that is very likely either.

I wanted to put a TY, a , and a , on this post, but ofc it wasn't possible.

It's the same result as the previous run. Where is the potential? Pretty cold. And pretty dry. And no snow. If that time frame is not going to produce, which at this point it appears it wont, who cares if h5 looks a bit "prettier" this run than last.

@showmethesnow Not bad. Nice EPO ridge building, and the NAO looks...neutral.

I know you know this, but ops at range tend to do this.

Anyone have any QBO updates? The new u30 data should be out in a week.

GEFS has the upper strat on fire heading towards the end of the first week of Dec, and if that verifies there should be some impacts down the road on the troposphere. So I guess what I am saying is...SWE will save us from a prolonged ++AO.

Temp down to 39. Looks like there might be some wet flakes mixed in, but with the wind and the leaves flying, hard to be sure. I am not interested enough to get dressed and go outside to further investigate.

10 bit resolution. Not too impressive these days.

Solid band of rain moving in here now. Just been cloudy with some sun breaks all morning until now. 41 here so I doubt I will see any mangled flakes. Some fattie leaves falling with all this wind though.

@showmethesnow Nice write up. I have always thought the Dec 2-3 period had limited potential, but I have warmed up to it a bit. It still looks like it ultimately ends up cold chasing rain with any secondary development occurring too late for the MA. Worth watching for sure. I have been a bit more intrigued with a possible clipper beyond that period, with the cold air in place and NS energy dropping in. Not that clippers are high probability events for this area in early Dec either lol. But hey, we anyway.