CAPE

That was the basic point I was trying to make- if the Nino was legit, the MJO would not likely be as strong, but with near neutral ENSO conditions, the active MJO is 'swamping' it and mitigating any significant 'Nino like' atmospheric response.

This was taken on March 7, 2015. IIRC the temp was 2 att. I went hiking that day and took many more photos, and temps were in the 20s. It looked like deep winter. Winter didn't really even start until mid Feb that year.

And even though we have had numerous March snow events in recent years- including very cold ones where the snow did stick around for a few days- you still hear stuff like 'march snow is not enjoyable its always gone a hour after it stops'.

If folks would just accept the reality that sun angle is NBD, then they might actually enjoy late snow. The reason it isn't a big deal btw, is that even in January the snow generally melts quickly, or it warms up and rains on it. Snow cover does not stick around for long periods in our region very often.

He is an awful poster. I was going to suggest he take it to the panic room, but then he would shit up that thread.

lolz

Their discussion focuses on the op runs for sure. I haven't looked closely enough to comment on your possible senior moment.

So you are writing off Feb? Based on?

To be fair, it was dumb. I called you on it first. The acronym SWFE was invented in the NE forum, and it describes a setup unique to that region.

Good read from Mount Holly in their AFD, although the take away is they aren't overly impressed at this point. As discussed yesterday, three perturbations will dictate the character of this storm as it affects the Mid-Atlantic. In general, the 00z model suite is in fair agreement with the overall evolution. The 00z GFS remains the fastest solution with all of these perturbations, though it has slowed toward consensus since this time yesterday. The largest difference remains its strong weakening trend with the southern-stream perturbation that rounds the longwave trough in the middle of the country Monday night. This is strongly tied to the quick nature of the northern-stream perturbation`s progression of the system toward the area. Meanwhile, the CMC looks much more like the general evolution of the GFS than it did yesterday, but noticeably slower. The ECMWF remains the strongest with the southern-stream perturbation and in developing a secondary low in the lee of the Appalachians Tuesday night before progressing it rapidly northeastward to the vicinity of coastal New England by 12z Wednesday. However, it has trended toward the weakening southern-stream perturbation that the GFS/CMC both suggest. With the general idea being operational model convergence with this system, a model blend was used for the forecast today with higher confidence than yesterday. On Tuesday, the surface low in the Great Lakes region will move into southeast Canada, with a cold front extending to the south. The front and proximity precipitation will likely approach the CWA by late in the day, but is unlikely to reach us before then. As such, lowered PoPs Monday night and Tuesday morning in an effort to narrow the timing. The primary window for precipitation looks to be Tuesday night as the front moves through the area. Notably, the timing and position of secondary low development along the front will be critical in determining strength and duration of precipitation. The stronger look of the ECMWF suggests slower timing and perhaps more prolonged precipitation along the axis of frontogenetical lift near and just west of the developing cyclone. Per trends, however, the strengthening phase most likely will occur in New England versus here, so precipitation should be fairly tame, especially since the strongest large-scale lift will be weakening (via a departing downstream jet streak) as the frontogenetical axis shifts across the region.

Yeah that goes back to my parsing post. We discuss what guidance is depicting, add our analysis, go back and forth some, then rinse and repeat the next cycle. Its more the general idea stuff, and its changeable. That's the gig in the LR disco. When there is a discrete threat within 5 days, the analysis is more tangible and detailed.

I guess this is one thing that will never change here during the winter months lol. Reading (misreading/misinterpretation) 'quality' posts in the disco threads, then overreaction, which propagates. Then the widespread panic ensues. Thread goes to shit.

Some of you might want to stay out of the LR pattern thread if you can't parse the context of the discussion.

Who has said winter is over, other than Ji?

MJO has been a persistent thorn, but the Nino essentially failed- it's an undefined blob of warmish sst, and we have seen little to no atmospheric response. Chuck isn't completely wrong with his Nina posts, lol. I will take winter weather when I can get it though. If we have a bad week heading into mid Feb, so be it. There will still be chances going forward.

I want a Five Guys burger.

Epic west-based blocking on the 12z CFS run for the next 6 weeks. Full-on weenie. Not unexpectedly, the 2M temp anomalies over the east are below normal for the next 6 weeks. eta- kinda looks cold and dry though

Except it did 2 weeks ago. It must be La Nina!

GFS/GEFS sure have been bullish on stout Baffin/ Davis Strait Blocking. CFS has been too. EPS is a bit more luke warm on the idea, but still persistently showing higher h5 heights in the NAO domain. The GEPS...eh, who cares. If legit blocking verifies, there will be lower heights in the east than most models are currently depicting. eta- 18z GEFS seems to be showing some 'response' to the blocking. Quite a bit colder look on the east coast towards D15.

2) ?

It probably is related to the MJO. What else could it be this winter? lol. I fully expect the advertised EPAC look on the EPS to "become" favorable over the next 2-3 runs.

Mostly I posted it just to instigate. I cant be bothered with post day 10 means anymore. I am pretty much with Mr Chill in that regard. But yeah I can see it getting to a good look not far beyond that panel. It has diverged from the weeklies after only one day though lol. At some point we gonna run out of road for this can.

You live in NH?

Uh-oh. More can kicking? Let the panic ensue!