CAPE
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Seems to align with the continued disruption of the PV the GEFS is advertising.
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If this depiction is legit, SPV might be singing some Nelly.
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Predominate -AO/-NAO an easy guess
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Been monitoring the AO/NAO teleconnections on the EPS and GEFS. Previous runs had both the AO and NAO hitting neutral by Dec 1. Current runs have both indices projected to still be negative and heading towards neutral maybe by the 5th or 6th. Not a major revelation, but seeing the LR ens pushing back the possible shift in phase is a good sign.
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The 6z run looks even better than 0z. Pumps the EPO ridge and has more widespread cold over the lower 48.
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The weeklies are typically so ambiguous it ends up being up for interpretation. Glass half full or half empty. Certainly it could be worse, but that is not a great look imo. And yes, it's the weeklies and they really offer little value. I'll stick with the LR ens guidance and not worry about what may happen beyond that window.
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Not a bad way to roll. Seems pretty reasonable the beginning of Dec could suck.
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@Bob ChiII EPS weeklies H5 anomalies a week beyond the end of the 0z EPS. Fwiw, 2m temps look average. I would say the look is pretty crappy overall, but ofc it's the weeklies. Always overly smoothed and ambiguous.
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Yeah its hard to make a call for a cold December around here. It happens every so often. Still can get a frozen event even if overall the month is 'warm' as long as the pattern isn't hostile, and with climo becoming more favorable moving forward.
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Stay out of the tangled webb they weave.
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GEFS currently has the MJO forcing moving briefly into phase 2, then into the COD by early Dec. Who knows what happens beyond that. Looks like it may do a loop in the COD, but it could reemerge in a favorable phase or stay neutral. If early Dec is going to be on the mild side, I am not sure the MJO state will be a primary reason. As for the Nino correlation, well we don't really have Nino conditions currently. Do we typically have warmish Decembers when ENSO is warm-neutral?
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This is what I am doing for the most part, but given this is the December thread and it is in sight on the LR now, worth a peak- especially given what the seasonal models are advertising.
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I will gladly take this look to start the month of Dec. GEFS looks very similar.
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There is that baseball team in Baltimore...they call em the Os.
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Ok Eagles. WTF? You can't stumble, bumble, and fumble and beat the Pats. Get it together.
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From what I have seen(and I don't go out of my way to read any of these dudes on twitter) he never wastes any time when it comes to sounding the bells for a "bad" pattern.
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Ravens are bullies since soundly beating the cheaters.
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Nothing alarming about the 12z EPS, unless you are looking for unseasonably warm weather.
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I think the Ravens might actually be pretty good.
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He seems to be a warminsta alarmist. He is quick to tweet and declare gloom and doom when a model run shows a SE ridge, even if it looks transient.
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Given what the seasonal guidance has been depicting, the longer we see good looks in the AO/NAO domain on the LR guidance, the better. As most of us know, having a predominant a -AO is number one on the list for cold and snow chances in the DC area.
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Why try a fake field goal on 4th and 4. You have LAMAR JACKSON. Jeez.
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Yeah. No idea what all the fuss is about. Who knows if it's correct, but what has caught my eye on recent GEFS runs is the good look up top rolling into December.
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This. Some of these twitter dweebs make weenies weenie out even more than usual. Webb lol.
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He is annoying. It's one damn run lol. And actually I am not hating it.
