CAPE

Could be rushing it, or maybe overemphasizing it altogether. Or we could be headed into another long duration Pac puke shutout pattern. Right now I don't favor this option.

The context of the discussion is where the pattern goes beyond day 10, and specifically looking at what the 18z GEFS is advertising days 10-15.

He has his moments. Sometimes the phase shift is only in the 30 degree range.

That's it Chuck.. ride the CAPE Train! Until it flies off the rails.

He needs another 35" to be satisfied. I'll take 12-15.

Yeah and on that panel I just focus on the features we know are primary players on the field. The TPV is going to stretch, and a piece is probably going to shed off and retro westward towards AK. Assuming it does, I don't see a ridge near Hawaii, so if that vortex retros a bit more, a PNA ridge can pop out west. Can see it on the height lines on that panel. The -NAO, which was west based and stout on the 12z GEFS run, is weak sauce on this run, which is the main reason the east has +height anomalies. Heights were normal at 12z. The 0z run might give us a better indication of which direction the pattern is heading. I can see a path forward to victory from that mess, but then again my inner Deb is loaded up on Valium.

We need to add to our January totals to atone for our February shutout December maybe. Hardly a spoiler here, but it will snow in Feb.

That's not awful. Plenty of time.

NA Blocking not nearly as impressive on the 18z GEFS as it was at 12z. Looks like the piece of the PV that retros to AK is headed towards the Aleutians at the end of the run. Extrapolating a bit, it looks like a PNA ridge is developing, as it did on the 12z run.

I'm getting the feeling it wants to snow on us around the 30th.

Clearly things aren't going 'as planned'. But, lol, that plan, at least what many of us came to expect based on most predictions, having a legit Nino, low solar, model looks etc, was something close to epic. Well, here we are, as usual, facing actual reality. For me, I would like to see 2-3 more events over the next 6 weeks, and hopefully get a foot of snow out of it. Plus some legit cold periods. That is totally doable from everything I am seeing at this juncture. I know your standards are higher than this, based on where you are now with snowfall, and your climo, but- imo with all of Feb and March in front of us, and prospects of several periods when the pattern is at least somewhat favorable(we aren't in a Nina at least) it is reasonable to think your area will achieve climo snowfall. That's all I want- average snowfall. If we get a great 3 week period coming up and we all get clobbered, then great. Not expecting it, and not going to be disappointed without it.

Oh well. It will 'see' something else in a few days, or runs, and completely flip again. That's what it does lol. EPS doesn't look good at the end of the run today, but there is a path forward from there to a favorable EPAC look. It certainly does not, however, look like it will follow the exact progression on the latest weeklies. Also, its possible that the models don't quite have it right today(really?? noooo) for how the pattern progresses towards day 15. Again, the MJO is one possible fly in the ointment.

500mb, MSLP panels, and eyeballs. Only time I see NAO/PNA etc numbers or forecast graphs is when someone posts them.

Ha. I think I did for a while, but it's pretty far in the rear view mirror now.

Yeah I guess the CCB had all the wind, because I don't recall anything close to blizzard conditions here, even when is was snowing heavily at the height, before it lightened up as the dry air punched in.

No. The AK look is what we want to see- lower heights back over the Aleutians and a ridge over the interior/ W US. The ridge axis is a tad west of ideal on that panel though.

All the boxes pretty much checked on that h5 panel.

I doubt its even top 10 here. It was a 15" snowstorm. Not much wind.

Lol. That storm dry slotted I-95 east. I never got into any of the CCB action.

It was a nice storm. Glad I was able to get half of it. lol.

Yeah, and I ninja'd ya.

Have you seen the 12z GEFS towards D15? Now get in there. I'm getting overwhelmed by Debs.

Until further notice my stance is/has been that the reshuffle is temporary and the 'bad looks' the models are throwing up in the long range may in fact become more muted and not materialize with any significance in real time. I think we do need a bit of a reshuffle. Right now we are stuck in this mode of cutters followed by cold. Still not sure how blocky we get in the NA, but even some relatively short lived episodes will work with a -AO and ofc assuming the Pacific doesn't go full on hostile.

Chill needs to get back into the LR disco. I need some help up in here.

Very nice west based block for early Feb on the 12z GEFS. Also looks like the lower heights over AK are retrograding towards the Aleutians and a PNA ridge is about to pop towards D15. My glass is half full.