CAPE

This might be the only time in the history of my NFL fanaticism that I am going to root for the Cowboys..and not just root- but emphatically root- for them to win.

I am a tad "worried" about tomorrow night for some reason. On paper the Ravens should win easily. But the law of averages tends to rear up in the NFL. Ravens are on a roll, on the road, against a team that really needs it, add in a few untimely turnovers...ok i am done now. Ravens are bullies. end of/

Eagles O is putrid. I know they have issues with the receivers, but still.

Shhh. My trolling is very subtle.

I see your concerns and ofc we all know(I think) how important the AO is for above normal snow chances in the general DC area. Outside of having a +AO with sustained ridging in the EPO/WPO domains and a ton of luck, it's pretty difficult to overcome if it ends up a persistent feature during winter.

Yeah I still think the threat centered on Dec 2 is pretty low probability for our region, but not a total lost cause. I keep thinking the better shot at something tracking underneath and producing a frozen event is NS energy dropping in a few days later, not that that is very likely either.

I wanted to put a TY, a , and a , on this post, but ofc it wasn't possible.

It's the same result as the previous run. Where is the potential? Pretty cold. And pretty dry. And no snow. If that time frame is not going to produce, which at this point it appears it wont, who cares if h5 looks a bit "prettier" this run than last.

@showmethesnow Not bad. Nice EPO ridge building, and the NAO looks...neutral.

I know you know this, but ops at range tend to do this.

Anyone have any QBO updates? The new u30 data should be out in a week.

GEFS has the upper strat on fire heading towards the end of the first week of Dec, and if that verifies there should be some impacts down the road on the troposphere. So I guess what I am saying is...SWE will save us from a prolonged ++AO.

Temp down to 39. Looks like there might be some wet flakes mixed in, but with the wind and the leaves flying, hard to be sure. I am not interested enough to get dressed and go outside to further investigate.

10 bit resolution. Not too impressive these days.

Solid band of rain moving in here now. Just been cloudy with some sun breaks all morning until now. 41 here so I doubt I will see any mangled flakes. Some fattie leaves falling with all this wind though.

@showmethesnow Nice write up. I have always thought the Dec 2-3 period had limited potential, but I have warmed up to it a bit. It still looks like it ultimately ends up cold chasing rain with any secondary development occurring too late for the MA. Worth watching for sure. I have been a bit more intrigued with a possible clipper beyond that period, with the cold air in place and NS energy dropping in. Not that clippers are high probability events for this area in early Dec either lol. But hey, we anyway.

0.62" here. Looks like today may turn out to be pretty nice, especially this afternoon.

If you are referring to the end of the op run, that is a pretty interesting look, and the same period that is being discussed in the posts above. It has a primary low running well to our NW and manages to develop a coastal south of our latitude, but too little too late for our region. Verbatim it would be cold chasing rain. It appears to be a period to watch. If you are referring to the end of the Euro ensemble run- it looks "ok" but the reason it has that ambiguous look is there is a large spread on the individual members, in particular the location and magnitude of any cold air. There are quite a few that would have us torching with a SE ridge for example.

HH GFS says maybe there is a legit chance for the Dec 2nd storm. I have not been too interested in this(still not) for my yard, but for NW areas it might be worth watching. and esp for the highlands. With the h5 look it is possible this takes a more southerly track(coastal redevelopment) than currently depicted.

Verbatim to this point its not bad. I suppose we have been at this game long enough that when a pattern "degrades", we tend to roll it forward anticipating further degradation. I am not worried too much about the advertised +AO/NAO for the short term, as long as we have a -EPO. The latest ens runs are encouraging in that respect, esp the GEFS and GEPS. In the long run, not sure how that scenario works out for us should it become a mainstay. Hopefully things will reshuffle and we won't have 3 months of deep blue up top.

42 here. Wintry feeling day. It shall be a chilly rain. Yes a month or so from now perhaps this would be a slightly different outcome. Also I decided to put the leaves off till the end of the week. The last major batch looks primed to come down, so not wasting my efforts today when I have a 4 day weekend upcoming.

Just drank a Stone W00t Stout. It's a goodie.

Exactly.

If there is to be a frozen event in our region(other than like Canaan) I don't think this is the one. It would more likely be the period just beyond this when the cold gets entrenched for a few days(maybe) and then it comes down to timing a shortwave and getting it to track underneath before the cold exits. At some point maybe we will see legit NA blocking again and we won't have to worry about absolutely perfect timing.