CAPE

23

That was a seriously fun winter. Lots of luck involved, but hey sometimes things just go our way. The frozen inland waters and even large parts of the bay was awesome too. Love that stuff. eta- I think that was the winter that featured the epic poetry thread. lol fun times.

Yes a legit block and a moderate Nino combo is a great equalizer. Otherwise it's mostly a crap shoot. I don't mind a Nina because we can get plenty cold, and with the baroclinic boundary further east I can catch the edge of offshore coastals/developing Miller Bs like a couple winters ago. Chased back to back early Jan big storms at the beach, and still came home to 6" of snow that stayed around for 5-6 days both years. Ofc west of the bay it was classic cold/dry. Last winter my yard failed every way possible lol. Was uncanny.

Never easy or simple in this region. Often a flawed pattern ends up getting it done. That works better for you than me though lol.

EPS looks damn good. GEFS looks good wrt to HL/NA blocking, but trends towards lower heights out west. Not necessarily a bad thing, but I prefer the EPS look.

I know you know this, but looking at composites/means do not imply that the given anomaly will be there 100% of the time. Give me a general cold look imby and I will take my chances every time- If its dry, its dry. Can't snow if it's not cold enough. You clearly view things from the other end of the stick, but thats a function of our disparate climo in this region. eta- I thought you preferred a cold winter with multiple low end events (eg NS) rather than an overall mild winter with one big dog(2016). Also, good chance the atmosphere behaves more like a weak Nino than a Nina, so there should be some STJ action undercutting any ridging out west.

Full moon looks cool through the high clouds.

Yeah I pulled up some traffic cams and it doesn't look like anything is happening. Must be picking up something aloft.

Sure looks like it. At least enhanced.

Radar lighting up with snow flurries/showers along the east side of the bay. Could be some flizzard conditions incoming. Currently 34. eta- looks like bay effect/bay enhanced. Developing and moving N-S along the bay.

More rain than I expected today. Just about a half inch. That puts my yard at 0.58" for the month. It had gotten dry again.

With the brutal winter we have incoming, there will be ample time for chases- of snow and good craft beer.

Looking pretty impressive in SBY. Snowing at Rehoboth too.

Webcam from Salisbury U https://www.salisbury.edu/webcam/ drive the cam. watch it snow.

Wind blown light snow now. Looking at some of the traffic cams along Rt 13 in DE and its snowing. Remains to be seen if it comes down hard enough/lasts long enough for a coating. Possible over that way though. eta- snowing pretty hard in Denton.

Yep some flakes are flying here on the west side.

Nice death band over my yard per radar. A decent soaking at least.

I got first flakes with last weeks front. But yeah I would not be surprised if there was a light coating somewhere south or east of my yard. I am in Easton today, so maybe even here.

Remains to be seen if there is a flip to an awful pattern ofc. If you look at the teleconnections on the EPS weeklies, the AO/NAO trends quickly positive heading into Dec on the means- not extremely so- but does align with the general idea of what the climate/seasonal models are depicting for the HL. Big grain of salt with all of this. This winter I am basically sticking with the LR ensembles, as the EPS/CFS weeklies/seasonal models are super low skill and a general exercise in frustration to glean anything meaningful. I am content with continuously monitoring 7-10 days out.

Not a fan of the weeklies in general after last year. Only as good as the eps run they are based off of. Might be somewhat useful in cases where advertised ens LR pattern is consistent across many runs. Otherwise a given weeklies run can become invalid very quickly- like one ens cycle later lol.

Tony Pann and that absurd RPM model...just an embarrassing disaster. Poor, naive twitter weather dweebs.

Yup I commented on this when you posted the GEFS panel earlier. Let's hope it materializes, and it has some persistence moving into early winter where climo becomes more favorable. Yeah we all know Dec ends up being just another fall month more times than not, but we are due for a little early winter action. We got jobbed last Dec.

I'll take the rain.

That's just the nature of the beast on the coastal plain. We still get hammered usually in those classic setups.. other than something like 2016 when the poorly modeled dryslot from hell was the culprit. Even so, 'half a storm' produced 15" here.

@psuhoffman Having an established tendency for HL blocking is fine. That works. I am making a distinction between that and ridging that develops in the NAO space as a result of a deep NS vortex lobe rotating through. That might look impressive on guidance, but it lasts a day or 2 and quickly moves out- that becomes a thread the needle deal for it to work for us.