CAPE

15 here now. This area radiates like a mofo with snow on the ground.

Yeah esp with a cold air mass, clear skies, no wind, and absolutely zero UHI where we are.

18 here just after 7pm. Forecast low is 19.

Interesting read from Mount Holly on the weekend event from their afternoon AFD- For Friday through Monday...A split flow regime results in energy ejecting into the central and southern Plains while northern stream energy amplifies some across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. An initial short wave in the southern stream should drive a weaker system across our area Thursday night and Friday with some rain/snow showers possible. The stronger energy then arrives over the weekend. The timing of the northern and southern systems will be key regarding the end results here in the East, as some guidance phases them faster and therefore the surface low tracks over or just west of our area. Some timing differences exist which plays a role in the surface low track. The evolving pattern looks to favor more of a delayed interaction with the surface low tracking farther south and east, however this is of lower confidence which also reduces the confidence regarding the precipitation types. Thermal profiles at this point utilizing a multi-model blend introduces a wintry mix for much of the region. One thing to continue noting is that the guidance is suggesting that a decent moisture plume gets pulled northward with this system. The potential for heavy rain, snow and/or mixed precipitation exists with this system, especially if the forward motion slows. The signal for this storm remains high among the model guidance, therefore increased the PoPs into the likely range for the weekend. The latest guidance has trended a bit farther north with this system, however a wintry mix is still expected to impact the entire area at some point Saturday and Sunday. An arctic airmass will surge southward in the wake of the weekend system Sunday night into Monday.

At least your area was modeled to get somewhat screwed, esp on part 2. All guidance yesterday morning continued to advertise my yard in the sweet spot for the coastal CCB and great banding. I didn't get a single flake. Maybe I need to get busy trolling the ungrateful too.

I might. Your area stole all my modeled snow yesterday.

Yeah that's the best (advertised) -NAO I can recall this winter on the EPS.

He cant seem to accept that rain is always a threat in winter around here- even in a good pattern.

He is skipping that period due to suppression.

He called for lots of WAR in his winter outlook.

If he meant the NAO, it looks ok too and is notoriously hard to predict at long leads anyway. I have felt all along the best period for legit NA blocking would be Feb. Weeklies have been consistent with that idea lately.

I was looking at the EPS this morning and the AO looks negative to me through day 15. Not something I would worry over.

With a split flow and the TPV pretty close by and spinning off lobes, uncertainty with this system remains high. The pattern will be evolving to colder, but not quite there yet. If there is an (early) phase with a NS lobe, that would likely cause the storm to track too far NW with the advertised look in the W Atlantic. If things time up better (later), could see a more favorable southern track. This has the look of a messy/mixy event on the ensembles.

That is a great graphic by Don. Yeah the big storm in 2016 had the dry slot which seemed to be missed by forecasters. This storm was sort of a 2 part deal, and that is always tricky. Part one worked out well here- I was thinking 5-6 and I ended up a bit over 5. Yesterday afternoon/evening was a complete whiff, and even my updated forecast at 330 pm was still calling for 2-4", but not a flake fell.

I missed all the part 2 action yesterday here. Poorly modeled. All guidance, including the 12z Euro had around 0.4 here with the coastal ccb. By the time the UL energy and the coastal congealed, it was all to my SE. Betwixt and between. I did get 5.2" from part one. Congrats to all who got the part 2 'surprise'. Amazing pics. Radar was frustrating to watch from here though lol.

Just noticed my forecast has been updated. Now 3-5" today and 1-2 tonight. Not sure about that, although some of the 'today's snow' would have already fallen I guess? Strange way to do a noon update to a forecast if that's the case.

Light snow still falling. I went out and shoveled while there is a bit of a lull. 4.8" Love the long duration of the event. Perpetual snow. The Upper energy and coastal development might offer some dynamics that the first part of the storm has lacked. Should be some impressive banding.

Banding potential looks interesting later as the UL energy moves through and the coastal gets cranking. Should be come nice FGEN forcing on the NW side.

4.5" here. Been on the edge of heavier stuff to my south for a while, but finally into some 30 dbz stuff now.

Its in that strip mall- the old ACME grocery store. Perfect space for a brewery/tap house. Basically divided it in half, and put windows in so you can see the brewery from the bar. They make some really great beers. I got a personal tour and actually tasted their Hazy IPA right out of the conditioning vessel(the owner was effed up- he drinks a lot of his product lol). O-M-G is that good. They will have it on tap next month.

Yeah. 3k shootin' some heroin now too.

If you are in Easton I wouldn't worry at all. Closer to the coast for sure. Eastern Sussex etc will likely mix or change to rain for a while.

I really thought the Colts would win that first game.

Drinking a Belgian DIPA from Cult Classic Brewery on Kent Island. Good stuff.

Damn 3k NAM gone a little nuts too.