CAPE

lol what a bad couple of posts- the one he replied to is even worse. Yes, because what we want to see heading into early Nov is a strong SPV- a big consolidated blue ball. That means Dec should rock!

Luckily no one really cares given the time of the year, but I will go out on a limb and say the GFS will 'trend' towards the Euro idea. The pattern is active and progressive, so big discrepancies at range are not uncommon when comparing op runs.

That is truly the new normal. +3 to +5 month after month. If DJF ends up + 1 or 2, it's a major win.

Low 70s in early November is fine. I have adjusted to the new normal.

39 here

Looks like a good radiational cooling night so I guess they are going a few degrees below guidance for the outlying areas. Calm winds and pretty low dews- mid 30s will produce some scattered frost. Had some pretty impressive frost here last Saturday morning in the open areas, with a forecast low of 39, and no frost advisory.

PDO looks like it might be trending towards the warm phase. Always difficult to read the significance for winter at this juncture, but this certainly isn't a bad sign IMO.

Had some pretty impressive downpours here. 0.58" total for today, and 4.30" for the month. Bring on the Saturday soaker.

Switch birds. Ravens.

6z GFS had a pretty good soaking for the area. Tents and parkas!

Good for business. Always nice to get an early start.

I think it may need to open early. Some triggered, antsy folks in the LR and preseason threads over basic model discussion/ winter pattern speculation. I fear early panic may ensue.

Its typical weeklies- overall ambiguous, but mostly suggestive of a continuation of the pattern depicted by the 0z run it is initialized off of. So generally a continuation of a SE ridge, although it waxes and wanes. It's not a completely terrible look overall, but nothing stands out to be overly excited over.

Just for the hell of it, I took a peek at the latest edition of the EPS weeklies. As we all know by now, they are to be taken with a serious grain of salt. Looks anomalously warm for the whole run(outside of maybe 2 weeks that look normal) for the eastern third of the US. That takes us through the first week of Dec.

Just a warm up dude. Wait till December.

Lets see if that look holds, or gets pushed back or ends up with the trough reloading in the west. The "lamenting" is simply pointing out that the models have backed way off on the previously advertised 'favorable' pattern for the last week of this month. Not a big deal because it's not like it was gonna snow or anything. lol. It's preseason, and I am specifically interested in seeing if the -NAO actually does materialize in real time, or if it's just more false advertising on the LR guidance. Also screw those gradient patterns with a persistent SE ridge. If that becomes the mean pattern for winter, that's a winner for places further north the majority of the time. Depending on legit NA blocking is a fool's errand until proven otherwise at this point. You may do ok at times, but that's generally not a good pattern for coastal areas of the MA.

I'm good with whatever now. Just wanted to get some decent rain so I could stop perpetually watering my new grass. 3.7" for the month now. I'll take a quarter inch to freshen up my snowpack, er, I mean soil moisture.

That alone will be good to see, We have had pretty persistent NA blocking during the warm months, so if this look verifies, might be a good sign as we go forward. Now the lack of cooperation on the Pacific side is another story. Lots can change there as we move into early winter, but I don't want to see that big azz NE Pac ridge become a fixture in the location the ensembles currently have it as we head into Nov. That would be a problem for the lowlands of the MA more times than not even in mid winter. Not a fan of SE ridge and gradient patterns for my neck of the woods.

The trend is not your friend. or.. We have seen this many times before. It is preseason, and I honestly dgaf if it is 70 the last week of October lol.

I assume you got the crud cleaned out of your rain gauge.

I know there isn't necessarily a correlation, but after the persistent false advertisement by the guidance last winter in the LR (wrt epic patterns and esp blocking) I am interested to see what the reality is for this period in which all the major globals were depicting a pattern featuring significant HL blocking and anomalous cold for the east. Yes it seems there was some error on the Pacific side compared to what was projected by models several days ago, impacting the placement and strength of the NE Pac ridge.

1.2" here. Still some persistent light rain/drizzle but it won't add up to much more.

Actually it came back online lol. They are always having issues though. Sometimes it down for more than a week.

Lamar took control today. Looked very confident.

Some big plays today. Nice debut by Peters with the pick-6.