CAPE

If there is to be a frozen event in our region(other than like Canaan) I don't think this is the one. It would more likely be the period just beyond this when the cold gets entrenched for a few days(maybe) and then it comes down to timing a shortwave and getting it to track underneath before the cold exits. At some point maybe we will see legit NA blocking again and we won't have to worry about absolutely perfect timing.

I think its a glitch as it seems only the GEFS has the affliction.

I literally just looked at this panel and the first word that came to mind was ambiguous lol. Just not worth worrying much about how the pattern may or may not evolve beyond 10 days at this point. Plenty of "options". Actually the GEPS has the best look D15.

Unless I am looking at the wrong thing, color key looks the same. The mean shows literally nothing in locations where multiple members have snow. eta- it's only the GEFS, not the EPS.

Some funky ninja action with the last few posts.

Early jumpers can step away from the edge until the next model cycle.

The ensembles have been showing a steady move towards a positive AO/NAO. It's really not that sudden. Anyway, the 12z GEFS looks fine- better actually than the 2 previous runs towards D15. EPO ridge looks more stout.

Nearly a perfect inversion of our ideal pattern

I am still kind of meh about the 'new and improved' site/interface. It's a wash to me. Still lags and then there are things like this.

Did you notice the ens mean does not seem to jive with the individual members on WB?

Yeah it's odd. It will be "fun" when we have a real threat in range and are trying to glean something useful- like from the snowfall means on the ensembles.

This one? https://simonleewx.com/polar-vortex-forecasts/

I have been watching it and the advertised temps in the upper strat have been on fire. Funny you made this post as I was just looking at the latests GEFS Strat stuff. I like looking at the 50 mb panels as well as it would seem to me to be more representative of how it will couple to the troposphere. This is way out there but would probably provide some serious cold in the east if it verified.

Yeah worrying about what might happen beyond D15 is not productive given what looks like a favorable period upcoming. The Dec 3-8 time frame continues to look pretty interesting. Plenty of NS energy and pieces of energy in the SS as well, with cold air in the east. Hopefully something comes together. Otherwise we can enjoy cold and dry followed by a warmup.

lol funny sht. And at the risk of (further) inducing panic, there is a decent chance the pattern is ultimately heading in an unfavorable direction. The EPS especially in the LR has a look of almost every index being in the "wrong" phase lol. At this point it looks like we are gonna see lots of blue in the HL regions, so we really need the PNA/EPO to work for us. Reality is, December in the MA almost always features some warmth, and ofc Nino and MJO impacts. My advice for those predisposed to panic to is to stay focused on the next 10 days or so. Looks active and generally cold.

18z GFS trying to deliver the goods. Pretty similar to the 12z CMC.

It's a pattern with fleeting cold shots and challenges of timing a disturbance with a fresh batch of cold. A pattern i will gladly roll with given most of the alternatives, but also one I think has a much higher success rate in mid to late winter than early December. Hopefully it becomes a clipper-fest, rather than a cutter-fest.

Yeah its certainly possible we see some ridging hold on in the NAO space as the PNA/EPO ridge builds. That would potentially provide the anomalous cold we need in early Dec but also keep enough of a suppression mechanism in place to maybe allow a stronger shortwave to track underneath.

Can never be totally confident in anything, but I will give you a few reasons. The ensembles have been strongly hinting at the breakdown, and now we see it across ens guidance for several runs now. NA blocks have rarely come to fruition as advertised during winter in recent years. Even though they are lower skill and tend to be discounted(unless they show a "good" pattern), cannot completely dismiss that the seasonal/climate models have pretty unanimously been depicting HL -heights for December.

Yeah we lose the NA ridging, but this is an intriguing look. As Bob said, its a pattern that can be frustrating with cold shots tending to be more fleeting, and I would like this pattern a lot more in mid Jan than mid Dec, but I am not going to be picky given what we usually see in Dec. I like the idea of having a piece of the TPV in that location with the big EPO ridge.

Its pretty clear now that whatever NA blocking does develop, it will break down around the Dec 5th time-frame. So it makes some sense we will get our 12/5 snowstorm. After that the EPO will bring the big cold and hopefully a clipper type pattern, as anything amped will likely cut if the NAO goes positive as advertised.

Yeah for our general region that has been the case lately. Overall though, it seems pretty logical. This makes the most sense for us: Jan-Feb-March = Winter April = Spring May-June-July-August-September = Summer October-November-Dec = Fall

In meteorology, every season is 3 full months. Makes much more sense than the sun angle deal.

Cutters wont stop happening because its winter. Met winter starts Dec 1. 6z GFS op run probably doesn't have the next 15 days nailed.

^Totally a gradient pattern look. Given climo, I would love that if I were in NE.