CAPE

Its been a bit rainy this year, as you know. Even when there is "normal" rainfall the water table beaks the surface in the heavy soil areas of the Delmarva during winter and early Spring. Not unusual at all.

Oh I agree. You and I know that. But there are surely some who are looking for a glimmer of hope. They likely wont find it in the upcoming edition of the weeklies. I was just issuing a bit of a warning, lol. In the back of my mind I have had a suspicion all along that we would not see a classic Nino-like tropospheric response until very late in winter. The ongoing (warm phase) MJO pulse and the SW stuff have perhaps contributed to inhibiting that further, but are not the sole cause IMO. This Nino is late developing, and seems to be a bit ill-defined.

The CFS weeklies have looked pretty gross lately too. I am resigned to the pattern remaining crappy overall through mid month at least. I have not been posting here much and will continue that until I see some clear and conclusive evidence of a pattern change. The EPS might be off somewhat in the LR, but it is rarely completely off base. I advise anyone who is in near panic mode to avoid looking at the weeklies this evening.

I think you are right. The other contributing 'issue' is how each model is handling the SWE, the exact locations of the daughter vortices post split, and the ultimate impact this all has on the troposphere going forward.

Lets hope the GEFS is sniffing out our epic pattern change better than the EPS.

That was sweet. Of course it could have very easily gone the other way lol. The Ravens should have taken care of business and salted this one away. They got a little lucky.

True but that isn't going to happen. They lost 3 in a row, and losing to the Raiders really killed them.

Nice to see the D step up when they had to. As good as they are, they have gacked it up in crunch time way too often over the past few years. Cleveland has put the rest of the league on notice. Sorry Steelers fans. NOT.

EPS looks less disgusting than the op at day 10. So there's that.

Wonder if the Ravens can go out and methodically take care of business today. Forgive me if I have serious doubts lol.

So we have a SSW event in progress that will apparently have little to no "favorable" impact on the troposphere, and it is acting as positive feedback for the ongoing MJO pulse, essentially mitigating atmospheric response to a weak Nino. This is like the winter weather weenie version of f**cking up a steel ball.

Snow? I was just sitting out on the deck sipping an IPA and soaking up some D3. At least there won't be any sun angle panic this winter.

Damn 'bama is off to a fast start.

He really should do us all a favor and stay in his own sub forum.

January 15. Roughly 2 weeks away now. I'll have the shades closed till then.

A -AO is clearly important for chances of above average snowfall in this region. Having a Nino plus sustained HL blocking(-AO/NAO) is usually a winner.

Meanwhile WB is still in progress trying to spit out the 0z EPS panels. I wonder if it will finish before the 12z run initializes.

Euro has light snow on Jan 3 for central VA over to SBY. An inch or 2.

Reading Isotherm's update reinforces my optimism that we will get there. Seeing all that red up top @ h5 on Happy Hour GEFS gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling.

Hello HL blocking. Thats quite a change from the 12z look.

Just know that I am sticking with the 15th. Not necessarily for any snow though. Just the beginning of the sweeet h5 look! (it will surely produce, by Feb)

Mastering homophones is hard!

Went from low 40s a few runs ago to 55-60 the last 2-3 runs. Lockin' in on another cutter. eta- I never thought the NYE +- a day period was ever a real threat. The period just beyond that (still) offers some potential.

Speaking of nothing to see.. paltry 15 day snowfall mean on the 0z ensembles. It gets better from here though