CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Big time performance from the D tonight. Yuge.
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Yeah not feeling too good about this when you know Rivers will explode at some point. Should be at least 13-3. I guess the time of possession thing is a plus, although the Chargers D doesn't look at all fatigued yet. It would be nice to take the opening second half possession and go on a 10 min TD drive.
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Not at all. The NAO is not some esoteric thing- the impact a -NAO has on our chances of major winter storm occurrences is well understood.
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The best option is to not think much at all about a SSW event. It is one of those nebulous deals, and it may or may not break in our favor if it does occur. Good thing is, given the background state, a legit strat warming event is absolutely not required in order for a very favorable pattern to blossom over the coming weeks.
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Good post. Despite what some here are sayin' about my Jan 15th 'deal', I think there is a decent chance we(broadly speaking) do score something before then. Not too bullish on NYE/day potential at this point, although it is certainly possible given the h5 look is not awful, but beyond that there should be a window of opportunity for 1 or 2 legit chances, inside of Jan 10.
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I agree with wrt the HL look. Significantly better than yesterday's 12z run. Not a fan of the EPAC look. Either way it will probably look different at 0z. Hopefully we see the core of the lower h5 heights further back towards the Aleutians going forward.
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The 12z GEFS is quite a bit colder at day 15 than the EPS.
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Yeah this is where I am at too. The weeklies started to get good around Jan 8-10, and were pretty sweet by the 20th IIRC. Have to see what the next edition looks like. Hopefully it doesn't kick the can down the road.
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I guess you could describe it as a step back. Two of the last 3 runs are pretty meh if you are expecting the pattern to incrementally evolve more favorably each run or so. Not a fan of the EPAC look on today's 12z run in the LR compared to what was being advertised 4-5 runs ago. Looks like the blue ball wants to move back into the GOA after retrograding some. The NA look is ok, but not as impressive either. Nothing I am going to worry much about at this point. I think we will still get there- eventually.
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Patience! We cannot rush these things. We be good by mid Jan.
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These 12z EPS runs need to stay away from the chili.
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Yeah that's the general theme. Way out there. Could be a miss, a scraper, something like the 0z run, or yet another rainer(probably more likely). Definitely a period to watch, although it may be a week too soon.
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Actually this one looks a bit different. Not a suppressed slider. It does come up the coast some but its a coastal scraper. Brings snow up to southern third of NJ.
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Realistically that depiction seems pretty low probability looking upstairs. That window also might a tad early- although not impossible. The way things appear to be evolving right now, somewhere around Jan 5-6 might be more reasonable.
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Suppression. Congrats NC
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Thats perfect. Lets lock that one in.
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Not sure how common it is on ships specifically, but because there are a lot of people in relatively tight quarters, if someone comes on board with it I am sure it can end up being very unpleasant for many.
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Probably Noro. I got that last winter. Literally takes it out of you for a day or so. Feel like crawling in a hole. I had really low energy for a day or 2 after. Contagious as hell too. Almost always works its way through everyone in the house.
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Yeah who knows, but it is certainly not impossible. There are many variations and subtleties with these features. The "ridge bridge" is an extreme case and does occur- a big blocking ridge in the E/NPAC bridging with a GL ridge in the NAO region.
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I am sure he would say the -EPO is weak and the -NAO is east based. I have a feeling the real "meteorologically impossible" look will show up in a few more runs though.
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This is the way you or I, or most people would evaluate it, lol.
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#snowinwintermonths #KUorBUST
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It is slightly negative now. He may be looking at the advertised MSLP Anomalies in the LR and seeing lots of blue up top in the primary AO domain. With all the strat stuff going on, I would guess there is quite a bit of uncertainty currently wrt how exactly things evolve in the high latitudes. With the SPV taking a beating, it would be surprising to me if the AO goes positive and stays there in the long run.
