CAPE

Yeah the Euro has an area of heavy snow in the Catskills on the backside of that bombing low. Not out of the question if it plays out like that. Looks like our region has the potential of an inch or so of rain, but as the low deepens, places from NJ up to central NE could see some 2-4" rains.

Well I hit 0.25". Probably not much more to come, but more than was forecast as recently as this morning. Biggest single rain event here in over a month. eta- total ended up at 0.4". Indeed, an over performer.

Good stuff headed south of me towards Denton. Was just outside and heard some rumbles of thunder down that way. eta- it wasn't my subwoofer/surround sound

Yeah hopefully I can get in on some of that action. I would love to end up with a quarter inch out of this.

0.12" of rain so far today. An over performer!!

Yes the parched soil has been dampened! 0.12" lol. At least I know it's actually possible for rain to fall again. We shall see about Wednesday. Looks good based on the 12z guidance, but the 0z runs looked pretty meh. Have to watch the "trends".

Just cleared up here after that sprinkle. Sun is out, temp dropped a degree, and a nice breeze from the NW. I guess the "cooler" air was lagging behind the actual front.

Looks like you are in a good spot for tonight and also midweek. Based on current guidance, it looks like your area should see 1 inch+ between now and Thursday.

Big temp gradient in the region. Temps rose overnight here. 54 and cloudy now. I was outside digging holes for some plants and was sweating lol. Maybe this is a sign my desert oasis is getting some rain tonight. eta- actually getting a light shower now.

Looks like the immediate coast of MD and DE may get a quick shot of decent rain tonight. Maybe I can score a shower? So here are Mount Holly's thoughts on the next potential event: Wednesday...Likely the most eventful day of the long term with one low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes and srn Canada while a second low forms off to the south and races off the Delmarva/NJ coasts and up into the New England waters. This second low is shown as eventually `bombing` by the EC/CMC models and just short of the criteria by the GFS. Either way, rains and gusty winds will develop Wed and last into the evening period before decreasing from W to E. Depending on synoptic/mesoscale factors a 1 to 2 inch rain may fall with the system. This has the "betwixt and between" look written all over it for a significant part of this region- and likely the areas that most need the rain. The NS energy and the and the low forming on the old front will congeal and perhaps result in a strong coastal low, but probably too far east/NE for most of us. This can be seen pretty clearly on the latest runs of the Euro and GFS. Precip maps are LOL, but not surprising. It bears watching, but given the dry run we are on, my expectations are very low.

Great pitching usually dominates in the postseason. Nats got it going on.

44 this morning. Looks like a darn near perfect early fall day on tap.

0z Euro Ens mean gets a half inch+ to the I-95 corridor for the midweek "threat". Good trends for now. Lets see if this slowly crumbles as we get closer, like all the rest lol.

Minot area getting crushed this morning with heavy snow under the deform band.

WRT the longer range models, we all know the drill in recent winters. Never expect an advertised -NAO to materialize until it does in real time. My hunch is we see much of the same since the last legit, persistent NA blocking period in winter- brief/bootleg ridging in the NAO domain. Not worth worrying over it since it is difficult to predict at range. The more important index to track imo is the AO, as a weakened PV is clearly a key factor for persistent cold air delivery into the midlatitudes, and correlates strongly with above average snowfall for this region. A -AO also increases chances for development of NA blocking.

I would think given the super duper impressive start to the Eurasian snow cover advance, the widespread anomalous warmth the Ukie is advertising must be pretty close to a meteorological impossibility. I can't imagine why Cohen would have even bothered to make that tweet.

Looks legit. Euro has close to 2 feet for there(using Kuchera), and close to 30" NW of there just across the border.

12z Euro is juiced up too mid week, but a bit too far S and E. Verbatim my yard would do decently, but the 1-2" rains are eastern VA to southern DE. That is a significant bump NW from the previous run though.

I am fine with multiple days in the 60s and 70s in late October. No more 80s though. And a little rain would be damn nice before the next ridge builds in.

Looks like Sunday night into Monday will present the next chance for rain, mostly for eastern areas. I will be watching intently to see how this one dwindles away to nothing.

0.02" here! Had just about 0.5" for Sept. It be dry.

Yeah I am not crazy about that look in general, minus the NA block. Long wave pattern is a bit out of phase for what we want. Not awful, but with the EPAC ridging displaced that far west, there would be a tendency for a trough out west and a SE ridge. We would really need the -NAO to be west based and strong.

Yeah I found it thanks. I had to click through all the parameters to find the ones (relatively few) that provide the individual member output. Fewer states available in the regions, and ens members are only available for a few of the parameters, less than the old Premium package provided. Not a fan overall.

Yeah after going through and selecting all the parameters, I finally noticed it. Strange they have so few states available. As I said in the other thread, I will stick with it through the end of the month. If it continues to annoy me/no enhancements are made, I may dump it for Stormvista. Even the old interface- which was clunky but everything was there- was problematic last winter with loading panels etc.

Yeah that's what I have done. Under parameter selection, only thing available is the mean. Nothing there that allows me to see individual members. Weird. This better be a work in progress. Not been impressed with WB, although I have stuck with it. This "new look" is unacceptable to me. I will give it one month max, lol.