CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Its not the worst look, but not what I am hoping to see 2 weeks down the line. I mostly was just being sarcastic.
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Yeah lets hope he doesn't try and make a habit of coming here and dropping turds all over like he does in the NE subforum.
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Yeah that's a great look at the end on the 12z GEFS. Looks a lot like the EPS!
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Thanks for the tip! What would we do without you popping in from the NYC sub to set us straight.
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Not much more to say here. I'll meet you in the Panic Room.
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GEFS continues to advertise a generally cold look for Xmas and beyond, in contrast to the EPS, which is jumpy, but generally wants to dump a trough out west for awhile with weak ridging over the east. GFS/GEFS look would indeed be quite interesting.
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Until I am out, most definitely.
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Not bad. I am way into that Norlun at hr 162 that snows on my yard. That will totally verify.
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The last few runs of the EPS have zippo for snow through Xmas outside of the far western highlands. A half inch or less. Close the shades!
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Yeah I saw that. Good ol' Happy Hour. The advertised pattern is not a complete shut out, so there will be some op teases from time to time.
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Outside of trolling, what is there to discuss? We pretty much shut down( like the govt apparently will be soon). See ya in 2 weeks!
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Looks like Ellicott City. At least they wont have to worry about excessive snow melt followed by heavy rain.
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No idea, but I would root for that. Just to see the freak show. They can't drive in drizzle.
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It has the snow hole over my yard dead on. A 1/2". woop.
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Yup, not to mention the EPS has been wishy-washy lately with the pattern evolution. This edition of the weeklies might look different (colder in the east earlier) if it was based off the prior EPS run. It is what it is.
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This is probably the sweetest panel of the run. Feb should rock, lol.
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Weeklies look like about what you would expect given the 0z EPS at the end of its run. Western trough/eastern ridge, then a gradient pattern with WAR early Jan, then things really get good mid to latter third of Jan with -NAO and cold anomalies along the east coast. Looks like a -AO/-EPO throughout.
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No, it wouldn't be. I might be involved in it myself, lol.
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I am in complete agreement with this post. Now, back to trolling..
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We clearly have a dead period coming up. Trolling aside, it appears the EPO/AO combo will be favorable going forward. It would be great if the pattern evolved quickly so we are cold by Xmas, but I have had my doubts about that. The week after seems more realistic, and it might be early Jan before we have established cold in the east. People get freaked about 'punting' Dec, but more often than not, it ends up that way.
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@Bob Chill you need to step it up dude. I am in a bitter mood.
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Sorry. Too many IFs and COULDs here. Low probability front end slop? Not what we are looking for. Not after the south got plastered with an historic snow event in early Dec while we got bupkis. Take all your misguided optimism elsewhere.
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Perhaps the new edition of the weeklies might brighten the mood a bit. I kinda doubt it though. Probably going to suggest closing the shades until mid January. Those of you close to full panic mode, proceed with caution this evening.
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It has been conflicted at times. Just go back and look at the last 5-6 runs. The variability is mostly because of run to run differences in the position/orientation of the NPAC/AK trough/ridge.
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Yeah it remains to be seen. Just a matter of when we get colder with the advertised EPAC look. EPS seems to suggest it may be closer to New Years. Hard to say if its just noise, but 12z EPS has a decent look in the NA at day 15.
