CAPE

Last year the leaves didn't really change until November because we went all tropical for the first half of fall. This year most of the leaves might be off the trees due to stress before we ever see any color lol. We seriously need a rainy period. That is something more worthy of whining about than some warm days in September.

My memory could be failing me, but I don't remember many, if any, refreshing low dew point days with cool nights this time last year. Yes we are going to have a few days well into the 80s coming up, but I just don't see anything resembling the putrid period we endured early last fall with day after day of warm, tropical air. Now that was something to complain about.

lol CanSIPS says we rock all winter. And Chill will return by Oct 1. You should change the thread title. Might as well make this the winter discussion thread, since that's what it has evolved into. There is some good stuff here.

I see what you are saying with all the red, but I don't focus so much on the magnitude of the h5 anomalies on these seasonal/climate models. They simply aren't realistic for anything more than the general idea. Zoom out. Big picture. On the Euro Gif above, Dec and Jan have a SE/WAR very close by. Mean trough in the west. Feb looks better, but not great. Remember the discussion you and I had last winter about how the pattern was close and seemed like it would evolve but the trough kept reloading too far west and SE ridge would only get knocked back temporarily then reemerge? This has that sort of look, which is characteristic of a pattern influenced by the TNH. See the image below. Anyway that's what stuck out to me looking at that Gif. I will have to go back and review it, but I think that ties in with ENSO and possibly the strong Pac jet of late. Not to say that is a bad look, but we would be playing with fire and would favor areas further north/inland. Thats pretty much how it turned out last winter.

This advertised h5 look through winter looks heavily influenced by the TNH pattern. Another "issue" we had to deal with last winter.

53 here.

The good period may have started late(mid Feb) but that winter slayed after that, well into March. Sometimes you just have to be patient. It's also never good for one's mental health to be too concerned with what is happening in NE when you live in the lowlands of the MA. Being in touch with reality is good.

After a few days in the 80s this weekend into early next week, verbatim the 12z GEFS has highs in the 70s and lows mostly in the 50s the rest of the run, into early Oct. Can't hate on that. That's freaking normal climo here. We will see how it plays out. Even if it ends up warmer some of those days, who really cares? Are people expecting hghs in the 60s and lows in the 40s in late Sept, outside of the highlands? LOL. Just give me some damn rain.

Feels great out there. 65 currently, headed down to 54. Then 52 and 50 the next 2 nights. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Just perfect for this time of year. If not for the dryness, this is the kind of weather that would get the trees going towards some vibrant fall color.

Had a brief, heavy downpour here around 4 am. Actually picked up measurable rain, 0.08".

@frd You see this? Pretty good read. He is way above my level but these indices are what I have been focused on along with the PDO. I think early indications are good. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/09/enso-and-qbo-derived-preliminary-winter.html

The entire Earth is on fire! lol Winter IS coming. It may not snow, but it will be winter!

No one should be complaining about the next 4, maybe 5 days. Looks absolutely spectacular for the middle third of September. Unless you want some rain of course.

Pretty decent general read on the MJO from NOAA last winter- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/madden-julian-oscillation-has-been-active-so-far-winter-here-why-it-matters

It overwhelmed because the Nino was a late developing, weak, diffuse, POS lol. That's one explanation. As for why the MJO was persistently strong/active, hard to say with certainty. I am no expert but warmer SSTs and enhanced tropical forcing/convection in specific areas of the tropics could act to "interfere" with/suppress activity in the ENSO region. You could also look upstairs over the tropics. QBO phase maybe?

It's early. I generally like how things look in the ENSO region right now- neutral but the SST distribution has the anomalous warmth focused more in the western Pacific. If that holds we could end up with the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish than last winter, assuming the MJO or some other forcing mechanism doesn't overwhelm again. Looking at the SSTs in the PDO region, it looks like it may be heading in the direction we want(da blob!), but its difficult to tell at this juncture and we have seen this somewhat nebulous look before, only to have the anomalies dissipate/shift moving deeper into Fall. Again it's early. Also have to like the QBO trend as we head towards winter this year.

18z GEFS doesn't look bad at all. Op runs do what op runs do at range.

Nice 3 day stretch coming up, despite still being dry. As for the generally warm pattern, this too shall pass. Hopefully the last week of the month will feel like legit fall, and bring some rain with it. 12z run of the GEFS has backed off quite a bit on the deep eastern trough/legit chilly look though. Surprise lol.

The soil feels hot. Not sure it can cool properly given how wet, er, dry it is. Snow will likely have a difficult time sticking this winter. If it actually snows, that is.

Look at the advertised lack of snow for the far west lol. California in trouble.

I don't think I have ever seen this many leaves down in mid September. Still no rain in sight. This fall is gonna blow for color.

Chuck, it's mid September dude. No one is expecting a winter blizzard pattern. But thanks for the notification!

Yep, its dry here. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast

I like the low clouds and cool breeze this morning. No rain yesterday, and other than a random shower the next couple days, looks bone dry for another week. Summer hangs on as we approach 90 again by Monday.

That's not how it works. Last year the Nino developed way late, it was pretty diffuse, and the MJO was on steroids. There were other factors- the QBO was headed in the wrong direction, the EPO, the PDO phase/strength, etc. There are always multiple factors that combine to influence the ultimate outcome (of winter). In our region, we generally always want a Nino over a Nina. Increases the chances for -EPO/+PNA, i.e. ridging in favorable locations, encourages a more active southern stream, among other things. Exception might be a strong Nino vs. say a weak Nina, in some cases.