CAPE

31. Looks like Sunday night will be the first legit freeze here.

0z Euro is a good run for NY state and central/northern NE for next Fri-Sat.. 6-10".

Yeah it develops a monstrous PNA ridge with multiple TPV lobes rotating down, then it drops the hammer and brings one down over the GLs at the end of the run.

43/33 here. Should be a frosty morning. Not sure about a freeze. More likely Sunday night here.

Long way off, but yeah. Possibly a threat for the western highlands as it fits climo there. Places east of the mountains- realistically, maybe a period to watch for first flakes in the air.

Latest CFS runs concur. November may be kinda fun.

Impressive -WPO and +PNA with a -AO and some nice ridging in the NAO domain as well on the EPS. I am totally down with an h5 pattern like this becoming a mainstay for winter.

Well lets throw a CP Nino in there too so we have the holy grail for the MA.

0z EPS has the same general look at the end of its run (hr 360).. +AO/NAO, EPO/WPO +heights.

Everything except heat. We almost always over perform on that one.

Looks like plenty of east coast ridging and mild temps for the foreseeable future. Nothing too extreme but several degrees above average(nothing new). Cool shot still showing up on the means for early November- probably seasonal temps or maybe slightly below for a few days. Beyond that- more ridging?

Yeah remember a week or so ago when all 3 global ensemble means were advertising that epic pattern for the end of October? We really need to stop falling for that shiit lol.

Luckily no one really cares given the time of the year, but I will go out on a limb and say the GFS will 'trend' towards the Euro idea. The pattern is active and progressive, so big discrepancies at range are not uncommon when comparing op runs.

That is truly the new normal. +3 to +5 month after month. If DJF ends up + 1 or 2, it's a major win.

Low 70s in early November is fine. I have adjusted to the new normal.

6z GFS had a pretty good soaking for the area. Tents and parkas!

Lets see if that look holds, or gets pushed back or ends up with the trough reloading in the west. The "lamenting" is simply pointing out that the models have backed way off on the previously advertised 'favorable' pattern for the last week of this month. Not a big deal because it's not like it was gonna snow or anything. lol. It's preseason, and I am specifically interested in seeing if the -NAO actually does materialize in real time, or if it's just more false advertising on the LR guidance. Also screw those gradient patterns with a persistent SE ridge. If that becomes the mean pattern for winter, that's a winner for places further north the majority of the time. Depending on legit NA blocking is a fool's errand until proven otherwise at this point. You may do ok at times, but that's generally not a good pattern for coastal areas of the MA.

That alone will be good to see, We have had pretty persistent NA blocking during the warm months, so if this look verifies, might be a good sign as we go forward. Now the lack of cooperation on the Pacific side is another story. Lots can change there as we move into early winter, but I don't want to see that big azz NE Pac ridge become a fixture in the location the ensembles currently have it as we head into Nov. That would be a problem for the lowlands of the MA more times than not even in mid winter. Not a fan of SE ridge and gradient patterns for my neck of the woods.

The trend is not your friend. or.. We have seen this many times before. It is preseason, and I honestly dgaf if it is 70 the last week of October lol.

I know there isn't necessarily a correlation, but after the persistent false advertisement by the guidance last winter in the LR (wrt epic patterns and esp blocking) I am interested to see what the reality is for this period in which all the major globals were depicting a pattern featuring significant HL blocking and anomalous cold for the east. Yes it seems there was some error on the Pacific side compared to what was projected by models several days ago, impacting the placement and strength of the NE Pac ridge.

2-3 days ago? Look at some of the panels posted in this thread a page or so back. EPS was never as bullish as the GEFS, but it had a cold look several runs ago.

If the 12z EPS is correct, the last week of October will feature EC/WA ridge with high temps of 60 to 70. The previously advertised cold snap has disintegrated.

I just made a post, and the thread showed that I made the most recent post, but its not showing up. Something is effed up.

Gotta do what ya gotta do. I do all kinds of odd stuff here lol. I have no neighbors tho which is nice. One thing about the BB, the stuff is really green when it matures, and ofc does well in the shade.

@frd Just took this pic of the new grass. Not bad considering I had to keep it going for 7 weeks in a drought. I should have taken a before photo 8 weeks ago. It was sad- burnt grass/thatch, dirt, and clover lol.