CAPE
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I'm blaming my slow ass internet service out here in the sticks. DSL!
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Ok that's it. My new display name is going to be "Perpetually Ninja'd"
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There is a reason we have ensemble runs.
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Operational guidance is clearly struggling with the details of the overall synoptic set up, but it appears anything that falls through NYD favors mostly/all rain at this point. It is the period immediately following (Jan 2-6) that has looked somewhat interesting IMO for a potentially modest snow/mix event.
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Makes one really appreciate the mid November crazy event Except it was 90% rain here, so not so crazy. Just more heavy rain in a year of heavy rain. So yeah, y'all need to stop whinging.
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Its workable. This is the type of event that is entirely possible given the set up next week. Just need it a tad colder.
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I have burned myself out with analysis and tracking in the past, to the point where by the time the actual snow event arrived, it was almost a let down. I take breaks now, especially times like now where the pattern is crap and just beginning to transition to something better. Its kinda nice to get away from it a bit and put the element of surprise back in, when/if something might "sneak up". The set up for next week is one where we could end up being surprised.
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It has, but I still think the pattern will be good enough to produce something other than rain, probably a modest event, over the next 10 days. And man I will take modest at this point. I was excited to see the heavy frost this morning.
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We aren't there yet. I am still somewhat interested in next week, but I concur with PSU that odds are we are looking at mid month and beyond for legit chances at significant winter storms.
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The latest run for me takes precedence. Not the euro run from 3 days ago. January is looking like one of those "January is gonna be rockin months" I've moved on to 'February will be rockin'.
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Its a week away. If the GFS/GEFS is even close with the h5 depiction the last couple runs, there is some potential for mid next week.
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Don't be such a negative Nancy. Happy Hour has giveth us a minor xmas miracle- snow TV heading into NYE! Plus there is plenty of time for steps forward.
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12z EPS snowfall mean is the best its looked in the last 4 runs.
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I like that finish.
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I like the concept. My yard needs to get on the board though lol. Then I am totally up for some arctic cold and frozen bays. Like you, I really like the advertised progression on the weeklies, with a potentially active transition, and then moving into a pattern that is somewhat less PAC driven, and with developing HL blocking. Pretty classic Nino look for the end of Jan into Feb.
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Its definitely trended to the EPS idea of a big a$$ -EPO/+PNA driving some big time cold into the east. Cold and dry, lol? We need to score an event or 2 before going into the deep freeze.
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Yup. I liked the h5 look on the 6z run this morning, and then the 12z op run followed with a nice tease. The 12z GEFS look continues the intrigue.
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I like the look of this panel. Potential not realized this run, but here we go again with the delicate interplay between the ss s/w and northern stream energy rotating down.
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Just some "slight" changes on the 12z GFS regarding the potential events late next weekend into the following week.
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This is a nice h5 look and offers potential for just beyond the NYE event, which still favors rain for most here at this point. We have NA ridging, a daughter vortex, and cold air now becoming entrenched. There is just enough of a SE ridge to offset what might otherwise be a suppressed system. It is suppressed on the op run, but not as much on the ens mean.
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Yeah the EPS has gone bonkers on the Pac side the past few runs, while losing the NA ridging in the LR. It does look cold. I prefer the GEFS look up top, and maybe the EPS will trend that way. Per the weeklies it gets there eventually.
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That was a classic marginal airmass with dynamic/evap cooling deal, where the storm took a perfect track. I remember it being sunny and around 50 the day of, and it started snowing in the evening with temps right at 32. It literally should have been rain lol. The old saying- it likes to snow in Feb- was never more true.
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That was a wild event here. Had over a foot in my yard but not too far south it was mostly rain until the end. Easton ended up with 4-5" I think.
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Sun angle issues and all..probably a C+. That really was a great winter though. It snowed a lot in a short time frame, and in the exact window when we would expect it to. People romanticize the big ticket Dec that so rarely happens. Its nice to think about, but totally neurotic to expect.
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Yeah the SB 1987 storm was a great one here, and there was a moderate event that preceded that, but not much of anything before. I remember that as a very good winter. eta- wasn't there a big storm in mid Feb too? I remember a paste bomb that was supposed to stay south, until it didn't.
