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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
    Yeah I didn't want to get too off topic for this thread. Just a mention. And speculating what the pattern may look like for winter belongs in the other thread. As for the immediate mid/long range, it will be interesting to see how the currently advertised pattern evolves on the models moving towards November. Some fairly significant differences between the GEFS and the EPS. I was just commenting in some previous posts that the EPS pattern depiction looks pretty familiar, but should it verify, it probably has little relevance wrt the actual pattern that sets up for early winter- ofc if you look at tomorrow's edition of the weeklies... lol.
  2. CAPE
    I doubt anyone is counting on a stable west based -NAO for winter at this point lol. Lets just hope the Pacific isn't crap, and there are enough differences heading into winter this year to think it might not be. Ofc the tendency for a hostile Pac (wrt favorable EC cold/snow patterns) may simply be another component of the "new normal".
  3. CAPE
    Yeah it's early and too soon to get a good idea of the state/strength/location of the important features, and how exactly the pattern will set up for early winter. I was just commenting on a possible outcome, and one we experienced often last winter. Euro could be just exhibing its bias of dropping too much energy in the SW, if that is even an issue with its model physics anymore. Either way there is a bit of a battle in the LR. GEFS briefly does the same thing, but not to the same extent and it gets to a good looking pattern with a west-based block and eastern trough by the end of October.
  4. CAPE
    Case in point- pretty darn impressive NA look here, but surface temps are mid 60s or even higher. This looks familiar lol. Honestly not worth worrying about at this juncture. Something to keep an eye on.
  5. CAPE
    The look the Euro is now advertising is much like what we were' fighting' last winter although the MJO/ENSO forcing is not the same now. No one can know how this evolves going forward, so like always, we keep an eye on it and hope it doesn't become another tease-fest in the LR, only to see the advertised pattern deteriorate in later runs as we get closer to reality lol. If a monster blocking ridge in the NE Pac should become a fixture, the positive impacts from any NA blocking that develops would tend to be mitigated.
  6. CAPE
    Last few runs of the Euro ens mean shows a bit of a trend towards more east coast ridging at the end of October, as the EPAC ridge is further west and mean trough is in the western/central US. Still eventually gets a trough in the east, but not until the end (of the 0z run), which is early Nov, and it's not a deep trough. GEFS looks similar, but to a lesser degree, and still gets some pretty chilly air here by the very end of the month.. These LR "trends" are what I am keeping an eye on in preseason, because this was the tendency last winter on the guidance- advertise a great h5 look(esp NA block) in the day 10-15 period, but as we get closer to that timeframe, the depicted pattern becomes less favorable/gets pushed back in time. Often it never verified in real time. I guess going into this winter, I am in 'believe it when I see it mode'. And also, screw the Euro weeklies lol. Have not looked at those once since reactivating WB.
  7. CAPE
    I said the same thing in a post early this morning. Also, this is like a trial run- we need to see if these great advertised h5 looks verify in real time. That rarely ever happened last winter. So here is a 12z EURO Ens mean h5 height anomaly panel for late month. Another beauty.
  8. CAPE
    That dude is at least half full of shiit. Some might even say his SAI theory is akin to selling snake oil. Always an excuse when it fails, and then he manages to take credit when it turns out cold and snowy despite the SAI/AO correlation not working out.
  9. CAPE
    0z GEFS has a perfectly placed west-based block centered over the Davis Strait at the end of the month. 0z EPS is very similar, but with the highest heights a bit further east, and an even more impressive look in the EPAC. Pretty strong signal for early season cold. This is like practice- let's see if these very favorable advertised h5 looks actually verify - and hopefully we see these same looks on the LR ens guidance a month or so from now.
  10. CAPE
    Plenty of potential during that period for an early season "winter like" event. Not saying frozen for the lowlands, but with the type of pattern being advertised, a snow event for the mountains of W MD and WV is a possibility.
  11. CAPE
    Interesting h5 look at hour 222 on the 12z GFS.
  12. CAPE
    Good post. 100% agree.
  13. CAPE
    Ofc it completely evaporated on the 6z run lol. Still, with the advertised h5 looks across all guidance, it is certainly possible the highlands could see some legit snow around the end of the month.
  14. CAPE
    Absolute pig of a block on the 6z GFS for late month.Would likely be some snow showers in the mountains with that look but any coastal development would probably be well offshore.
  15. CAPE
    Mount Holly's latest take.. Not sure this will pan out. This looks like a graceful step down to what will be a lame event. Most of the action now looks like it will be well south in the Wakefield, VA forecast area. Convection and an associated convectively enhanced shortwave trough is located across the Ohio Valley and moving eastward toward our region. Some showers have already moved into the region from the west. Will expect to see this activity continue through the morning hours with coverage and intensity increasing as the day progresses. This will lead to quite a bit more cloud cover than previously expected, especially across the northern half of the area. As a result, confidence has decreased for this area to see much in the way of destabilization this afternoon. This will preclude any severe weather or excessively heavy rainfall threat for the northern portion of the forecast area. Therefore, we have shrunk the size of the Flash Flood Watch and removed all northern NJ and Lehigh Valley counties. The heaviest rainfall is currently forecast to fall from northern Delmarva east across southern NJ where training of heavy thunderstorms appears more likely at this time. Farther south across Delmarva and far southern NJ, considerable destabilization still appears to be probable, especially if excessive cloud cover remains to the north. MLCAPE values of 1500- 2000 with 35-40 kts of deep layer shear are still forecast across the areas with the most destabilization. In this case, the severe weather threat remains in play with all hazards possible (damaging winds/isolated tornadoes/large hail), but damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. SPC has removed the enhanced risk from our area, but Delmarva and extreme southern NJ remain in the slight risk with the marginal risk still covering SE PA and central/southern NJ.
  16. CAPE
    Happens less than a snowstorm in DC.
  17. CAPE
    Not a surprise seeing the upgrade to Enhanced given the look on the models the past 2 days. I am slightly interested, but these threats rarely amount to much more than a gust of wind, some T&L, and maybe some heavy rain, outside of a few isolated areas. Need a derecho in these parts for something widespread.
  18. CAPE
    This might be the best T&L show of the summer here. And as a bonus, I gotz rain! 0.55" so far.
  19. CAPE
    Radar really blossoming just to my south and west. Hopefully even the leftover crumbs will add up to a half inch or so. That initial cell was really noisy and impressive electrically, but the heavy rain passed to my SW. Picked up a tenth of an inch.
  20. CAPE
    Tons of lightning and booming thunder here now. Will significant rain actually fall? Probably less than a 50% chance based on outcomes over the last couple weeks here.
  21. CAPE
    Some moderate rain falling here now. As expected, the best stuff is south of DC, especially down in the tidewater of VA.
  22. CAPE
    Some of the folks here are like my dad sometimes. "It's not gonna rain.. there is nothing showing on radar anywhere close!". Ofc, he is not a weather hobbyist and does not understand concepts like surface convergence/upper level divergence, vorticity max, etc.
  23. CAPE
    LOL. Question answered!
  24. CAPE
    This might be a dumb question, but why would reaching the convective temp be critical when the synoptic setup provides mechanism(s) for lift? We have a front, with upper level perturbations moving through. Seems reaching the convective temp would be much more important when there is little to no forcing available, as with typical summer air mass storms.
  25. CAPE
    It's so pitiful it cant be found.
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