CAPE

^ Winter is coming.

55 here this morning.

Ok who is the EC US weather geek who hacked/reprogrammed the model physics for the CanSIPS?

Looking at the NH h5 panels on the CanSIPS for Jan and Feb, its just ridiculous lol. Totally sick. March isn't far behind. Feb lol That look would be indicative of one weak azz PV. Baby steps.

If the CanSIPS is on to something(real), we won't have to wait too long to see if it really has a clue. Check out October. The "scary" thing is, the CFS has the same idea.

Oh a -NAO still exists.. its only extinct in the winter months.

A moderate Nino is the sweet spot for the MA in general I believe. More specifically, a Modoki. 2009-10 being the obvious example. Weak Ninos can be utter fails here, and much better for NE.

I think the -AO is the key, and statistically it usually is for colder than average/snowier winters here and also the odds of getting a legit -NAO to develop. Makes some sense given the QBO trends combined with the solar min (should correlate to a weaker PV). Also some support for a -EPO given the current SSTs in the Pac. The 'current' PDO look is subject to change though as we move further into Fall, much more so than the ENSO, which will likely be neutral for winter. Hopefully the atmosphere behaves more Ninoish. Overall though you have to like the early signs.

Yeah that pretty much was my reaction. CFS has been leaning that way too lately- esp the look in the eastern/N Pac and around AK. Seems to be "coming around" on more NA blocking though, esp mid to late winter.

Here is Dec for an appetizer.. Probably completely unrealistic, but hey, its September. Might as well weenie out a bit. We need some 'feel good' heading into the heart of fall.

New CanSIPS is out. And its, well, possibly more orgasmic than the last edition lol. Wow. @showmethesnow

Pretty much the same here.

Feels a bit like fall out there today. Light rain and drizzle, breezy, and 64 degrees.

I like the idea of a big EPO ridge this winter. Seeing it show up a lot on the seasonal/climate models, and there is at least weak support for it looking at the current Pacific SSTA. The CFS has been consistently advertising a big ridge over and north of AK, even though it vacillates with the look in the NA. The most recent run is a good example. Check out that Feb h5 look. Can't get much sweeter than that lol.

Seems its always about a week late as I recall, at least before it is available on TT. I am also curious to see if the new edition bears any resemblance to the previous run. I kind of like the way things look in the Pacific currently. ENSO is neutral but still leaning Nino with warmer SSTs further west. If that general look were to persist, it could work for us. PDO currently looks pretty good, ofc we have to see how it evolves over the next couple months.

Picked up some light stuff overnight. .04". That batch east of me in central DE looks like it may be pivoting this way. Not expecting much.

I know. Yes its all "for fun" at this point. The only indices worth seriously monitoring at this juncture IMO are ENSO, PDO, and probably QBO.

Exactly. Looking at a mean for the whole winter- and surface temps at that- makes it difficult to determine how the pattern sets up and evolves. Pretty useless IMO.

Getting some heavy downpours. Some action actually popped along the front here. 0.20" Another batch to my west. Might get clipped but probably headed more south. Hearing a bit of thunder from that.

Get your Black Beauty yet?

Forgot to mention a cold front and remnants of a major hurricane that will produce no rain.

Yep. The dairy farm here sprays liquefied cow shiit.

I generally leave the AC on until I have to turn the heat on. It obviously doesn't run much in the early fall. I hope to get a few days where I can open the windows, but farm country doesn't smell too good this time of year.

QBO this time last year was strongly negative trending less negative, then went into positive territory through winter. That is regime B in the image above. It was absolutely out of phase from what we want ideally for a weak PV. Again no one index is the end all, but we didnt have it in our favor last winter(assuming the desired outcome is colder than average).

As of now, it appears we are in the "C" category, which is second only to A. Ofc that trend needs to continue over the next few months.