CAPE

The big ones are sniffed out early- which weenie rule is that again?

EPS is hinting at it- Pretty good support for the op run at that range. Classic look at the surface for a big winter storm.

1.28" Looks like its pretty much done other than some scattered brief showers.

Other than special teams lol.

Hell of a game. Stafford so clutch. MVP.

I just look at precip. Its paltry. If the snow maps suck too that means we aren't getting much of anything- no rain either.

Now that makes sense. I'm gonna deliver down there for sure.

LOL

Still not much to be excited about at the surface on the 18z Eps. Need to see some improvement over the next few model cycles. GEFS too.

18Z Euro is real close. Been incrementally moving in the right direction at h5. Compare this run to 0z.

Need to start seeing a better signal for a snow event on the mean for the 15th. Still pretty weak.

My post was referring to the 18-19th storm, but yeah I agree here.

Op run at this range, its literally noise. Upper level evolution is as impressive as it was last run. Need to see a stronger/more consistent signal on the ens mean in the next few runs. Ultimately it will be what it will be.

Dude you are a guest here. Hanover lol. No whinging from you.

More like VA Capes lol

Low track a tad souther and gets going a bit too far offshore

Cape Storm.. looking interesting

Neat run, but hard to imagine it ends up anything like this. LP over the mid bay with sn++ DC to Annapolis then 3 hours later precip dies as it redevelops well offshore lol.

1.15" so far. A soaker.

It's an informal term that some people use to describe interactions in the flow. Admittedly, it annoys me a little bit, but I let it slide. I have even seen NWS mets say it in forecast discussions.

Not sure this makes much sense, but hey, congrats on your revelation.

Worlds apart for (my?) storm. The energy in the flow overtop the ridge has a different orientation on the Euro than the GFS and flattens the ridge some, resulting in minimal interaction/ phasing further west. Without that and still a positive tilt that far east, its surprising the Euro is even close- offshore at our latitude but actually scrapes the coast of the Carolinas. EPS supports the Op run for the most part- offshore but a glancing blow for the coast. Close enough, and still 9 days out.

Mount Holly has KEY messages in their AFD lol. Number 3 below- KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong frontal passage is expected later Wednesday with the potential of a coastal storm for Thursday and Friday as a secondary low develops off the coast. Impacts are very uncertain at this time depending how close the low tracks to the coast. By the middle of the week, an amplified upper level weather pattern is expected to develop of the eastern third of the United States. A strengthening and deepening upper level trough will be located over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, stretching all the way down toward the Gulf Coast by Wednesday night. At the surface, it is fairly confident, that a primary area of low pressure will be tracking across Ontario and Quebec with cold front trailing back across the Appalachians. This at the very least will lead to some shower activity across the area on Wednesday. Temperatures look to be several degrees above average, where highs will likely top out in the upper 40s to low 50s. Beyond Wednesday though, the pattern becomes highly variable and the differences amongst forecast guidance is fairly significant with regards to timing and location of upper level and surface features. While the upper level pattern is expected to shift east with time for the latter part of the week...what exactly happens with progression of the pattern is yet to be seen. For example, the 10/00Z GFS is the most aggressive with the pattern aloft, with a cut- off upper low tracking tracking across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday with secondary surface low cyclogenesis ongoing right along the Mid- Atlantic coast. This scenario would likely bring widespread impacts of some sort to the area. Meanwhile, the 10/00Z ECMWF and CMC are both less amplified and aggressive with the trough, simply swinging the base of the trough off the coast with any secondary low development shunted well out into the western Atlantic. This scenario would likely equate to minimal impacts to the area. Ensemble guidance though, does support secondary coastal low development, so this system will need to be closely watched over the coming days to see how close this system may be to our coast. For now, have followed closely to NBM guidance which essentially carries a 20-30% chance of rain and/or snow across the entire region Wednesday night into Thursday night.

lol its not really my storm(and if it is it better do better than 1.5" in my yard) Several days ago I said I liked the advertised h5 look around the 20th for a winter storm a bit more than mid month. Ofc it looks somewhat different now. Both windows could snow on us.. Hopefully the other guidance gets as enthused as recent GFS runs.

Much better wave interaction than the last 2 runs. More like 18z yesterday.