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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    We have zero control of the outcome of any of this. Fun shit eh?
  2. CAPE
    If you want to claim a window for a storm, you cant just post a random op run and say ooh look a storm! lol ( not that Ralph did that, idk) You do this-
  3. CAPE
    I liked it first. Its another Cape storm. The last one was a bit underwhelming, but a prelude to the one that's on our doorstep.
  4. CAPE
    He was the HC of Arizona..that's a tough gig. He did a nice job as OC with the Commanders in JDs rookie season, and they went to the NFC Championship game. This season was a disaster for many reasons, none of it really his fault. Apparently Minter also likes him, so if he doesn't get a HC job, he probably will be the guy.
  5. CAPE
    Ok then they both incrementally moved towards general agreement. I tend to watch the location and track of the developing coastal low because that has more influence over here. GFS has shifted NW with the track and is warmer than it was(more like the Euro) as the flow off the ocean erodes the low level cold for a time.
  6. CAPE
    It has incrementally moved towards the Euro- gets plain rain on the lower eastern shore for a time with the low closer to the coast.
  7. CAPE
    12z GFS gets heavier precip in quicker- nice thump
  8. CAPE
    Ravens should hire Kingsbury as OC. Word is Lamar supports it.
  9. CAPE
    Love that GFS run for my yard. Latest ens means have low pressure too far offshore, for now. Probably need the trough more neutral/negative sooner or its going to be a scraper/offshore.
  10. CAPE
    6z GFS has a Thursday clipper. 2-3" for N VA/DC/Central MD with an inch or so surrounding that.
  11. CAPE
    Mount Holly going pretty aggressive here with the snow. Quite a range though so they cover their ass lol. 3-7 tomorrow night and 4-8 Sunday. I would have 2-5" here Sunday and insert sleet into the forecast.
  12. CAPE
    Mt Holly only mentions snow and freezing rain in the forecast for here- no mention of sleet. Maybe they are taking the Euro verbatim with its freezing rain output. GFS has more significant sleet and less amounts of zr.
  13. CAPE
    Yeah I just posted a map in the main thread. Not really in range but it does look good.
  14. CAPE
    Only goes out 60 hours but this gives an idea-
  15. CAPE
    I would go 6-10" max unless the models trend souther/colder.
  16. CAPE
    GFS and UKie have been close but cant imagine they are riding with that combo lol.
  17. CAPE
    Goddamn Mt Holly going big. I guess they think the Sat night thump is gonna be legit for the coastal plain... like 1-3" per hour lol
  18. CAPE
    I don't see 10" in Easton otherwise.
  19. CAPE
    Ok, but the discussion was about the Euro not the AI. It has been slightly better for multiple runs.
  20. CAPE
    Yeah the Euro is clearly fucked up wrt zr vs. sleet.
  21. CAPE
    Not really seeing it myself. What you see as a slight step I see as slight run to run noise. The snowfall maps are worse other than places NW of I-95, whether you choose to use the 10:1 or Kuchera. Not a massive difference but this run is not a move towards the GFS in a sensible weather context, and that's all that matters at this point.
  22. CAPE
    At this range, the ensembles should very closely resemble the op, or something is probably wrong with the model lol. I think we are probably past the point where the GEFS offers any real insight.
  23. CAPE
    One thing to consider- that's some hella impressible Arctic air that's gonna be in place, so the primary shouldn't push too far north before redevelopment off the coast, then its a question of is it more likely to have a tucked coastal low further north, or a tad more south/off the coast in a situation like this? A legit case could be made for the GFS- and we arent talking worlds apart here.
  24. CAPE
    Not sure anyone would be complaining if HH GFS worked out.
  25. CAPE
    It has the best overall outcome for the majority of the region. Ukmet kinda supports it. Not the best combo lol
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