CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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10 this morning
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January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month
CAPE replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Latest Euro Weeklies for the week beyond the end of the 0z ens run. This is actually a decently cold look with cold air delivery mechanism between the ridge over AK and the TPV. Plus the thermal boundary is very close by for shortwaves to traverse. -
High of 27 after a low of 1. Didn't think it would make it to the forecast high of 31 today.
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Looks like a good rain could be in the offing. At least with temps getting into the low 40s in a few days getting the hose out and washing the car will be possible. I'll probably do that Sunday.
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The core of the cold air mass is on the way out. Last night was nearly perfect for radiating, enhanced by snow cover.
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January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month
CAPE replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
There is a signal for storminess on the latest GEFS and EURO ens runs in the Feb 1-4 window. A handful of members from each model have some frozen in our region. Still pretty far out in the LR, but not a particularly cold looking period on the mean at this point. -
Down to 1.2 at 7am.
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2 here at 6am
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Early Feb has been a window with potential for awhile now. With a modeled +NAO however, timing is critical. There is cold HP to our north but it will be on the move eastward without any block in the flow in place. In this case the low tracks northward to our west as HP shifts towards/off the NE coast. The temporary damming allows for some mixed precip in the northern/western parts of the region on this run.
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That's not really been the case overall. This right here is an atmospheric block(Rex type) with a quasi-stationary vortex 'stuck' underneath a ridge, same as what we see in the NA at times(which we love in that case). It alters(splits) the flow. This isnt a particularly long lasting one as modeled.
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7 at 11pm
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10 at 8pm.
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Scattershot but there are some decent hits among the ens members for our region in the first week of Feb. There are 2-3 members that heavily contribute to the Central VA jack(mostly 1 lol)
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A bit of banter but it's a slow period. I was bored at work today so I read through the 1/6 storm obs thread- I needed sleep that night so from about 11pm to 5am I was out. Slept through the beginning of the storm. Anyway reliving it a bit I wanted to look at H5 again. Damn that was a really impressive h5 look, and pretty characteristic of some of our major snow events historically. The vortex part of the block was extreme and displaced southward from ideal, which limited potential somewhat, esp for the northern parts of our region.
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Yep. we need some vorticity to eject eastward underneath, but if the mutha load comes out, pretty risky with a +NAO.
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Pretty good outcome at this range. Just one op run. With no help in the NA we gonna need some good timing.
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Well, it moved lol
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Some crazy cold HP. Might be a bit much but its on the move with no blocking to speak of.
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Hard to be mad, but if we just had more typical below avg temps this week with the true arctic cold/ HP just to our north, we would have been getting the snow instead of the deep deep south.
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He is referring to the snowfall prediction contest for this winter. I think. I didn't participate but I am guessing most were on the low side, so yeah probably good.
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There are some misconceptions about this and what is 'good' or 'bad'. It isn't that simple. There are also 2 Pacific Jets- The NPAC jet is a part of the Polar Jetstream, and what is often referred to as simply the Pacific jet is part of the Subtropical jet. (there is both a Polar and a subtropical jet in each hemisphere) The STJ is usually quite weak/retracted in a Nina while the Polar jet is predominant, and in a Nino the STJ becomes more prominent and tends to be extended and located further south. That's what gives us the active storm track across the southern US. There are also 'degrees' of retraction/extension with both jets. In general a jet with an extended core of stronger winds favors a ridge in the western US (+PNA), and retractions favor a -PNA.
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High of 17. 2 straight days in the mid to upper teens doesnt happen too often. With clear skies tonight, should get down around 5.
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Yeah it had a pretty nice look at h5 and the surface for the very end of the month, close to the same window as the AI storm.
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Yeah cloudy here all night. Only a low of 11.
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For early next week- probably not a high probability at this point but there is still enough uncertainty to keep an eye on it. The wave timing and degree of interaction between energy ejecting eastward from the southwest, and NS energy riding overtop the ridge and dropping southward is probably not going to be exactly correct as currently modeled. On current runs(GFS here) the NS vorticity digs down right overtop the southern energy and it shears out and then gets kicked off the coast with only weak surface development/precip in the mid south and a bit of snow in KY and TN on the northern edge.
