CAPE

18 here this morning. I think the forecast low was 23 or something.

The combo of Nina and the TPV position/NS energy rotating southward around that complicates things. We end up with more LP to our north/northwest than we want. Wave timing becomes more critical to get the outcome we want.

Also the extended products that far out aren't very reliable- as we all well know from last winter's perpetually advertised epic pattern that never materialized.

I made a post about this a day or 2 ago. As long as the EPO ridge persists that pattern isn't hostile. We can have a SER and still get a wave to track underneath. Exactly what happened in Jan 22 when we were apparently in a complete shit the blinds pattern a week or 2 prior.

The 5th might be a bit soon. Agreed the 8th and beyond probably offer increasing chances for a winter storm.

Yeah not sure the conventional ENSO criteria means that much anymore. We still know a favorable look for winter weather for our region regardless..at least we hope that's the case.

The h5 look on the GEFS for the 8th is pretty much what we want to see for a MA winter storm. A -EPO with a southward displaced TPV, -NAO with lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Cold enough at the surface. The surface pressure depiction isnt ideal but this is still pretty far out. As depicted there is energy digging into the SW in conjunction with plenty of NS vorticity associated with the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV. The timing and interaction between these shortwaves will determine ultimate outcomes, and tracking it will be nerve racking lol.

Jan 5-6 and again around the 8th or so look to be the 2 windows to monitor for a potential winter storm going forward. Sporadic signal but its there, esp on the GEFS.

The -EPO seems like the most certain feature to develop in the upcoming pattern. The exact state of the NAO has been the unknown imo. My wag is we see some transient -NAO periods going forward, but not a sustained NA block. That can work with a persistent EPO ridge and a bit of wave timing. Blocking in the NA was more favored last year and it never really materialized despite being persistently modeled in the LR. The state of the QBO and Solar argue against it this winter. Probably a little patience is required wrt the change in the h5 pattern to something more favorable, considering the modeled unfavorable/milder pattern hasn't even occurred yet.

26 after a high of 33 Pretty good chance there won't be any precip here regardless of form.

You don't 'ignore' the global operational runs outside of day 5. They are a tool same as the ensembles are. The trick is to know how to use them. In the h5 maps above the general pattern is actually very similar, but one is a higher resolution op run and the other is a mean constructed from 30 differently perturbed lower resolution ens members, each potentially with differences in timing and location of features.

Low of 11

0z GEFS has an indication for a storm on the 6th that tracks south of us and off the coast with some precip up this way but most stays south. I like the look at the end of the run for a potential storm a couple days later- spilt flow and some STJ contribution with moisture coming northward from the gulf towards the TN valley. Cold in place, broad trough with slightly SW to NE oriented height lines. Still well out in the LR but good to see some hints of southern stream moisture getting involved with the cold.

Looks like the Keaton Mitchell Christmas miracle may happen. If not, he must be in the Harbaugh doghouse for some reason. Ben Cleveland knows all about it.

I know this is the panic room so I will make the necessary disclaimer- I am in no way trying to talk you off the ledge. IF the end of this op run ended up being the actual outcome at that time, what do you think it might look like a day or 2 later?

High of 28. Currently 19 at 730 pm

Good one.

Glass half empty brain is real here.

That's not a SER, its a transient h5 height rise out in front of a deep/ broad trough progressing eastward. Roll that forward a day or 2 with that HL look...

Its gonna cut. The NA is meh. Confluence is lacking. A bit of HP damming so maybe some coastal redevelopment.

The 12z GFS had a similar evolution as the Euro at h5, but because the sensible weather outcome was different(resulted in no pretty snow maps), it seems no one noticed. Lets see how the next few cycles of the op runs/ensembles go- this could be the beginning of an actual storm signal.

Yeah I still think about the 30" blizzard that one run of LR GFS gave me a for couple days ago. I did get snow tv and a coating. Close!

Nah he will find a member or 2 out of 50 that have a snowstorm and post em all.

Just 50 miles further east

That plus this-