CAPE

Need to see a stronger overall signal on the ensembles over the next few cycles. GEFS is the closest right now with a handful of hits and near hits.

The 0z GFS forms a wave along a strong cold front with a wall of high pressure behind it for the 21st. That could work for a light to moderate frozen event. Beyond that the next potential storm for Xmas eve has no space to develop until well offshore. The 0z Euro digs stronger shortwave energy much further south and develops a bigger storm in the SE on the 20th that tracks right over us with rain. Cold air comes in behind. 0z Canadian forms a low offshore of NC and just scrapes the SE coast with some mixed precip. Pretty decent storm signal with details TBD. Nice to have trackable potential pre Xmas.

poof.. fish storm...trending lol this place. Been super busy with work. A nice break from weather geekdom. Refreshing.

Gotta love the GFS at range. It has been advertising some whacky outcomes for that period recently.

Based on 2 members lol.

0.90" total

Mostly light to moderate rain here today with a few brief heavier downpours. More leaves to deal with thanks to the wind. 0.75 " so far with maybe another hour or 2 of showers before it tapers off. The 1-2" forecast likely won't verify, but I didn't expect it to.

Should work, but that's but one possible outcome from a single op run at hour 360, so we won't necessarily get the chance to find out lol.

Latest EPS and GEFS are hinting at a storm for that window. Something to keep an eye on. Doesn't look particular cold at this point and given the advertised h5 look it could end up offshore.

There is no signal on that run for snow within 4 days of Xmas.

I'd take my chances with this look in early Jan. Visualize a NS wave tracking just underneath.

Wave timing /interactions are not going to be the same from run to run at this range, and because the second piece of energy coming overtop the ridge doesnt dig and phase the same way as 12z, it doesnt wrap the cold air in. That 12z evolution was pretty radical lol. General idea of a coastal low for that timeframe is still there on HH GFS.

59 Nice break from the cold. Next we do mild and wet.

There has been a signal on the previous few ens runs for something along the east coast pre Xmas but the look was not quite cold enough/favored offshore development. The changes out west this run make that period a bit more interesting. Something to track over the next few model cycles anyway.

Previous couple of GEFS runs had a general shift in the trough westward, but not so much on the EPS. Good to see it. eta: leads to a more amped EPO ridge. That is the biggest difference towards the end of the 12z ens runs.

PD2

Like the 12z GFS, the 12z Euro also showing wintry potential in the 19-24 window.

The op did that this run so not surprising. Lets see how this goes in the next few model cycles.

A wall of strong HP up north with overrunning potential. GFS seems to like advertising this in the LR lately.

This could be fun lol

These ens mean temperature anomaly maps can sometimes be deceiving, same as h5 maps. The air up in Canada is still pretty cold. There certainly could be a cold shot or 2 over the coming weeks that gets us below normal temps, but it gets somewhat washed out on a mean. Given the advertised pattern, any cold would likely come behind a storm. Big picture is we will have to wait and see how the pattern progression plays out. At this point snow chances for the lowlands are probably on the low side until maybe the last few days of December.

I mentioned this in a post yesterday afternoon- the NPAC trough digging into the GoA needs to weaken/retrograde towards the Aleutians in order to get some cold air in place with storm chances for our region. The extended products have been advertising this occurring in the last week of the month. The last couple GEFS runs depict this process occurring just before Christmas, as does the 0z GEPS. EPS not quite yet.

There likely won't be much if any moisture left by the time the colder air comes in. Places further NW maybe see some snow showers at the end. The GFS and sometimes the 12km NAM seem to overdo this in these situations.

Not surprising you are also willfully ignorant about the first amendment. Free speech on an online weather forum lol. Go ahead and put that to the test you insufferable curmudgeon.

Based on traditional metrics maybe. Have you heard the oceans are really warm these days? Temps in Nino 3.4 are quite cool relative to the rest of the Tropical Pacific. RONI > ONI.