CAPE

I've had 10 warning criteria winter storms the last 8 years, and I am at 60 ft elevation on the central eastern shore. 'Our luck' hasn't been that bad.

Yeah it isn't a shit the blinds look.

Grain of salt ofc but the extended products have been consistently depicting this pattern evolution. A week to 10 days beyond the end of the current ens runs is the timeframe when the extended tools should be useful. Not a month beyond.

That's the look we want in a Nina- shortwave energy can drop southward further west and have space to develop a surface low to our SW, instead of what we have now/over the next 10 days which is probably too far east.

Today's edition of the weeklies looks even colder for early Jan. Time a wave or 2 and we defeat historical weak Nino snow climo.

The best snow is east. Charter a boat and drop anchor.

He is referring to Nina climo. Early Jan has had some nice hits for the MA in recent Nina winters. The whole month of Jan 2022 into early Feb was about as good as it gets in a Nina for a good chunk of the region. Not sure about December overall, but there was that one storm that no one here mentions.. eastern areas did pretty good.

In the end, just have to see how it plays out. If the -EPO is persistent there should still be chances into Feb. The SER can be flattened at times, and maybe we get lucky with a wave or 2 moving along the boundary. A couple moderate events would be a major victory in a weak Nina winter.

The extended products continue to advertise significant weakening/retrogression of the Nino-like NPAC trough by early Jan, to be replaced with +heights near the GoA and an EPO ridge, which is more of a Nina look. That should at least allow for continued cold shots, but without help in the NA wave timing will be critical to give us some shots at snow. We have had the cold, but with the progressive pattern it's been cold/dry followed by milder periods with precip, then more cold/dry.

The Orioles ownership needs to be willing to spend if they want to be competitive in the division over the coming years. Yankees, Red Sox, and even the Blue Jays go after big time players. Bargain basement additions won't cut it.

There is a bit of randomness to this thing of timing cold and moisture. Like I said, if our area is the farthest south snow is likely to ever fall, we won't being getting snow too often.

It happens. Snow can fall to the south of us too. Always has. If that stops occurring, we are truly fucked.

HH GEFS

The advertised h5 pattern is amplified and progressive. We can get the southward dig with NS energy in this setup. With no help in the NA however (+NAO), the tendency will be for later/offshore development as cold comes southeastward with any significant shortwave energy. Probably need a little more luck than usual with wave timing.

Another wacky solution from the GFS at HH. Plenty of cold coming in from the NW with the amped western ridge and digging shortwave energy, but the Gulf is closed for business. Baroclinic boundary is pushed offshore where the low develops, and the moisture feed comes from the Atlantic- part of our region just gets in on it this run via an inverted trough(that always works lol). This sort of evolution would favor places further NE.

Gray winter day. Feels like it should snow. 34

What's being depicted there is the 19-20th event that is a rainstorm on all the op runs. The energy dropping in behind with colder air coming in is the one to keep an eye on. Precip from that looks light/offshore for the most part on the means.

Need to see a stronger overall signal on the ensembles over the next few cycles. GEFS is the closest right now with a handful of hits and near hits.

The 0z GFS forms a wave along a strong cold front with a wall of high pressure behind it for the 21st. That could work for a light to moderate frozen event. Beyond that the next potential storm for Xmas eve has no space to develop until well offshore. The 0z Euro digs stronger shortwave energy much further south and develops a bigger storm in the SE on the 20th that tracks right over us with rain. Cold air comes in behind. 0z Canadian forms a low offshore of NC and just scrapes the SE coast with some mixed precip. Pretty decent storm signal with details TBD. Nice to have trackable potential pre Xmas.

poof.. fish storm...trending lol this place. Been super busy with work. A nice break from weather geekdom. Refreshing.

Gotta love the GFS at range. It has been advertising some whacky outcomes for that period recently.

Based on 2 members lol.

0.90" total

Mostly light to moderate rain here today with a few brief heavier downpours. More leaves to deal with thanks to the wind. 0.75 " so far with maybe another hour or 2 of showers before it tapers off. The 1-2" forecast likely won't verify, but I didn't expect it to.

Should work, but that's but one possible outcome from a single op run at hour 360, so we won't necessarily get the chance to find out lol.