CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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26
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Strong signal on the 6z GEFS for a potential event a week out.
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The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction.
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6z also has the MA snowstorm. The GFS depicts near perfect timing with phasing multiple NS shortwaves, and involves significant energy from Baja.
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If only they weren't extinct.
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Watertown Live stream. They were supposed to have 18"+ otg by now per the forecasts this morning. Maybe later tonight into tomorrow the band will shift north.
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Yeah I knew someone who went to school there. Perpetual snow showers with a few inches here and there, but almost never in a legit lake effect band.
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Nah just tracking via forecast discussions and webcams lol. Haven't reached the 'chase' level of desperation quite yet.
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The key is have HP to the North/NW. The warmer ssts off the coast can actually enhance a winter coastal storm with a stronger baroclinic boundary. Ofc we would need a cold air mass in place and a synoptic setup that continues the flow from the N/NW as the storm progresses.
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I could see how frustrating lake effect can be, from both a forecasting and weather weenie perspective. Imagine being just a bit on the wrong side of a death band, but it lasting for 12+ hours.
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Yeah Jones would have been a nice pickup for insurance this season, and a compensatory pick next year when he ultimately walked in free agency this offseason.
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It was spotty earlier- heavy snow showers then slack off to nothing. Looks like a nice band has formed this evening per radar, but a bit south.
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Yeah no, Ravens don't make the playoffs without Lamar. Do you know who their backup is? 8-9 won't cut it in the AFC. Mostly likely it will take 10-7 to get in. Ravens should be able to go 3-2, and finish 11-6. With Lamar ofc.
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Lake effect bust in Watertown so far. Forecast this morning for today was 11-17", and another 12-18 tonight. It's approaching 9pm and there is a couple inches of wet snow otg, roads are wet, and it isn't snowing lol.
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32 here at 840 This should be the coldest night of the Fall by a couple degrees.
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Warm trough. The kind that only produces 33 and rain. Chuck knows.
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Fucking Chiefs. Fucking Raiders.
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And also a few days later. Pretty persistent signals for those 2 windows.
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As it is the heaviest snow is south of us on that run, and as the center of that high shifts east the back end of the storm produces some snow in coastal NC and SC. Pretty cold.
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lol what? That high is north of Minnesota. There is a 1034 HP in SE Canada and its snowing on us with temps in the mid 20s.
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December 5th could be a sneaky chance for something minor. Dec 7-8 and 10-12 continue to look interesting.
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18z GEFS depicts the same idea.
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Overrunning with sprawling cold HP pressing south.
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Hard to complain about the advertised h5 pattern on the 12z EPS heading into mid Dec. Solid look out west, TPV stretched southward towards Hudson, and indications of +heights building westward into the NAO domain.
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Not bad verbatim. Some minor adjustments and some of the juice that is just offshore ends up a bit further west.
