CAPE

Snippet from WPC Heavy snow disco this morning- Over the past few days models have converged on a stronger and slightly north solution regarding the initial placement of this upper low, with still some differences regarding it's track and ability to maintain strength as it moves eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Downstream confluence is quite strong and limits to what extent the precipitation shield can lift north. The GFS/GEFS remains alone in a stronger solution which leads to more potent WAA and a farther north heavy snow axis, as well as mixing issues spanning farther north than most other guidance. The answer likely lies somewhere in between, but may be closer to the ECMWF suite given latest trends.

27 nearing sunrise, with a dusting of snow otg.

Why not compare it to the previous run? These maps have been posted every model cycle- the difference between the current and last run is all that matters at this point.

Great storm! Easily top 10 for my time here.

You're getting 8"+ I promise

Euro is pretty clearly a bit too far south given the synoptic setup, imo. That said, I don't think the GFS evolution is the final answer either. More fun to come. Most likely some sort of a compromise, which should make most folks here happy.

18Z EPS snow mean almost exactly the same as 12z.

One tick further north and the Euro is perfect. Nothing wonky about it. Just bring that FGEN band north a tad. That 16 in SBY could so easily be in my yard. sorry @Lowershoresadness

The heavier band is actually a bit further north.

Just had a heavy burst of compact snowflakes. Nice coating on the deck and ground. Temp at 33.

Basically DC and south/east in this case

18z GEFS looks pretty solid. Similar to 12z but just a tad drier. Mixing is a thing on a significant number of members for the lowlands.

GTFOH with that crap. There would likely be a significant period of non-snow ptype on the GFS from DC south and east, plus a dry slot. DC isn't getting 9 with that evolution. But go ahead and take the model output verbatim.

The GFS evolution is too wonky. Big ass dry slot. Mixing issues. Back end is decent as advertised but would probably be less impressive in realty. Much prefer the Euro, but a bit further north.

Duh? Dude you are in fucking PA lol.

He has FB weather page called wintry mix.

The Brits like the souther track, but both are incrementally norther on the 12z runs.

10-12" here the last 2 runs. Love the Canadians.

It's there, but gets stretched into a vorticity ribbon as a strong jet streak moves overhead.

That's the expectation at this range and and moving forward.

Its not a new feature, but the exact timing and location of it varies from run to run.

It's a delicate balance. The vorticity feeding the gyre is what flattens the flow and de-amplifies the wave enough to force it to track underneath.

Something to note about the synoptic setup for this storm is the absence of high pressure to the north. Without that feature in place we don't want to see the initial low become too amped and tracking to our NW with no wedge in place. Nice to see the GFS depiction of a weaker low as it tracks into WV with a secondary low to our south becoming more prominent.

This is the modeled snow from the 6z GFS for today so factor that in the the snow total maps.

GFS is adjusting towards the other guidance. Less amplified/weaker with the initial low and earlier secondary development.