CAPE

The -EPO seems like the most certain feature to develop in the upcoming pattern. The exact state of the NAO has been the unknown imo. My wag is we see some transient -NAO periods going forward, but not a sustained NA block. That can work with a persistent EPO ridge and a bit of wave timing. Blocking in the NA was more favored last year and it never really materialized despite being persistently modeled in the LR. The state of the QBO and Solar argue against it this winter. Probably a little patience is required wrt the change in the h5 pattern to something more favorable, considering the modeled unfavorable/milder pattern hasn't even occurred yet.

26 after a high of 33 Pretty good chance there won't be any precip here regardless of form.

You don't 'ignore' the global operational runs outside of day 5. They are a tool same as the ensembles are. The trick is to know how to use them. In the h5 maps above the general pattern is actually very similar, but one is a higher resolution op run and the other is a mean constructed from 30 differently perturbed lower resolution ens members, each potentially with differences in timing and location of features.

Low of 11

0z GEFS has an indication for a storm on the 6th that tracks south of us and off the coast with some precip up this way but most stays south. I like the look at the end of the run for a potential storm a couple days later- spilt flow and some STJ contribution with moisture coming northward from the gulf towards the TN valley. Cold in place, broad trough with slightly SW to NE oriented height lines. Still well out in the LR but good to see some hints of southern stream moisture getting involved with the cold.

Looks like the Keaton Mitchell Christmas miracle may happen. If not, he must be in the Harbaugh doghouse for some reason. Ben Cleveland knows all about it.

I know this is the panic room so I will make the necessary disclaimer- I am in no way trying to talk you off the ledge. IF the end of this op run ended up being the actual outcome at that time, what do you think it might look like a day or 2 later?

High of 28. Currently 19 at 730 pm

Good one.

Glass half empty brain is real here.

That's not a SER, its a transient h5 height rise out in front of a deep/ broad trough progressing eastward. Roll that forward a day or 2 with that HL look...

Its gonna cut. The NA is meh. Confluence is lacking. A bit of HP damming so maybe some coastal redevelopment.

The 12z GFS had a similar evolution as the Euro at h5, but because the sensible weather outcome was different(resulted in no pretty snow maps), it seems no one noticed. Lets see how the next few cycles of the op runs/ensembles go- this could be the beginning of an actual storm signal.

Yeah I still think about the 30" blizzard that one run of LR GFS gave me a for couple days ago. I did get snow tv and a coating. Close!

Nah he will find a member or 2 out of 50 that have a snowstorm and post em all.

Just 50 miles further east

That plus this-

I rather like the moderate events. Sometimes they occur in a colder period where we can get a few, and the rare 'snow on snow'. That happened in Jan 22, and 2 of the 3 events were 8"+ for some. Even last year as brief as our actual winter was, we had 2 light/moderate snow events within 10 days and it stayed cold so some snow was still otg when the next one hit. Maybe not memorable years later but enjoyable at the time.

I think the Hawaii bowl is on Christmas eve. If one is desperate for a football game lol.

Guidance is advertising a much more favorable h5 pattern for early Jan with colder air available, but we have a 'dead' period to get through. I am at the point of boredom drooling over h5 maps though. Over the next few days I will be looking for persistence with the finer details. And watching plenty of football.

Exactly. Thus posting snow maps is even more useless than normal.

Low of 16

What can be gleaned from the ensembles at this point is a general increase for chances of frozen for the MA maybe as early as the 3rd. There are some hints on recent runs, but not seeing a notable signal for a discrete event yet. That is beyond day 10 on current runs, so plenty of spread/uncertainty.

Use the 6-hour member snow total panels for that purpose. A 24 hour would be better but not an option. Just go through several in succession and count the hits for that period, and include that in a post. You don't have to post the all the maps.

Why are you posting total snowfall maps if you are focusing on a specific period? This depicts the EPS mean snowfall for the weekend after new Years-