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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Some early signs of a more Euro like outcome.
  2. CAPE
    Some of that blue to to south might be rain/mix. Up where you are, colder, better ratios. I wouldn't kick 0.43" out of the bed.
  3. CAPE
    Huge difference at h5 up north compared to the GFS.
  4. CAPE
    I have been keeping an eye on it too. GFS and CMC both have a coating, mostly for southern parts of the region.
  5. CAPE
    You sure?
  6. CAPE
    I actually posted it in 2 pictures above.
  7. CAPE
    It's not weak sauce up north. You run a weather facebook page. You should know why.
  8. CAPE
    Look to the north..
  9. CAPE
    At that point the big difference is the amplification and amount of energy associated with the TPV that the GFS is involving. Previous runs didn't do it so might be a one-run error.
  10. CAPE
    Something to monitor for Tues-Wed next week is the GFS brings a trailing shortwave eastward and pops a coastal low off NC. The last few runs have done this and it is also reflected on the GEFS. The Euro wants to dig most of that energy into the SW.
  11. CAPE
    The 6z GFS dropped the TPV hammer in behind the storm. Too much amplification. Not surprising that the GEFS reflects that, with the 'follow the leader' tendency the model has.
  12. CAPE
    Hoping for some thunder
  13. CAPE
    Did you have a snowless Jan 2022?
  14. CAPE
    Literally lol. Where he is, good spot for a suppressed storm.
  15. CAPE
    Yeah that's closer to where we want it. If you didn't see it, check out what the op does in that timeframe lol. Explains a lot of how things transpired on that run.
  16. CAPE
    Pretty, but verbatim the vortex part of that block is displaced more southward than ideal. Increases suppression risk for the NE and northern MA. I made note of this in a post based on the 12z op run.
  17. CAPE
    Wrt the storm potential centered on the 9th- still a solid signal for this range, but no not as good as 0z(which was insanely good). Still quite good for southern/eastern parts of our region.
  18. CAPE
    With the advertised pattern, there shouldn't be a cutter problem. A Miller B evolution sure. Probably favored given all the NS vorticity flying around. Most likely failure mode would be suppression. There is some crazy confluence on that Euro run. The 50-50 vortex retrogrades southwestward towards New England lol. A quasi-stationary 50-50 is an indication of a true NA block, but that's too much of a good thing.
  19. CAPE
    Not necessarily. Some of our best NA blocking periods are associated with being 'just cold enough'. In this case there is also an amplified EPO ridge and a southward displaced TPV.
  20. CAPE
    Warm and windy. 65
  21. CAPE
    and then NC gets a foot+ for the next one while we smokin' cirrus?
  22. CAPE
    I was mostly just skeptical that it would actually evolve into something sustained/significant. Initially on guidance it appeared the NAO would be modestly negative once the EPO block set up.
  23. CAPE
    I mean, effing hell..
  24. CAPE
    The strongest signal for a snowstorm across 0z ensemble runs is the EPS for the 10th- and it is a strong signal for this range. A bit of a weaker signal on the 6z GEFS with low pressure more offshore compared to the 0z run. The 6-7th storm has an initial low to our NW on the majority of members, with secondary development somewhere along the MA coast(Miller B). In a nutshell, not much has changed and it is still too early for details.
  25. CAPE
    Bengals live another day. Hell of a game. All Denver had to do was get a first down and run out the clock to get in the playoffs. They couldn't do it. Burrow could be the MVP, but won't because of the crappy record.
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