CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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23 here. Cranked up the wood stove insert for the first time around 4pm. Warm and cozy in here and the heat pump hasn't kicked on for hours.
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Just stating what the run depicts wrt previous runs, in a nutshell. I don't get emotionally attached to specific outcomes that are determined by imperfect simulations of wave interactions and timing.
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18z GFS looks much like 12z and not nearly enough like 6z for the Dec 8th potential storm.
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The h5 look on the LR GEFS for mid month might cause some panic, but it isn't a torch look for the east. Surface temps are actually slightly below normal for the MA verbatim at the end of the run. The EPS h5 look is still quite acceptable for mid month.
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Wintry feeling, a day before winter begins. 32 here now after a high of 37.
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The pattern change is probably temporary is the takeaway. Why do you care if its milder the second half of December? It just doesnt snow much in these parts until after Xmas- that's reality. Let the pattern become favorable again when we actually have a chance.
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Ohio State
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This might be a good read for those who tend to get 'concerned' about the pattern shifting from favorable to unfavorable before we even get into the favorable period.
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Still a pretty decent signal on the 12z GEFS for the 8th.
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Just delete your last 2 posts. Kinda seizure inducing.
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Looks like a step in that direction. See what happens over the next few runs. The GFS will probably come up with completely different evolution lol.
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There are so many shortwaves embedded in the NS flow its chaos this far out. The character of the western ridge at specific times is critical too- the axis, whether its more amped or broader..
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Exactly. Need some interaction to get that energy involved. What the GFS does here is ideal-
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And that is going to take a strong NS wave to dig southward further west. GFS does this for the next weekend event, while the Euro misses- it does it with another piece of NS energy a couple days later, but yeah as depicted it's a warm storm with low pressure tracking to our west.
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Yeah esp when the pattern is NS dominant. Difficult to get a good moisture feed with modest waves embedded in a dominant flow from the NW.
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Yeah the band has been persistent to the south of there. The forecast was dramatically adjusted yesterday afternoon. I read some of the AFD and apparently with these LES events the hi-res short range models have a south bias so they tend to lean towards the globals when forecasting the exact location of the bands. I guess that didn't quite work out in this case.
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No idea which one is 'more correct'. Possibly neither. I was just explaining what leads to such different outcomes in the current GFS/Euro simulations.
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26
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Strong signal on the 6z GEFS for a potential event a week out.
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The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction.
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6z also has the MA snowstorm. The GFS depicts near perfect timing with phasing multiple NS shortwaves, and involves significant energy from Baja.
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If only they weren't extinct.
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Watertown Live stream. They were supposed to have 18"+ otg by now per the forecasts this morning. Maybe later tonight into tomorrow the band will shift north.
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Yeah I knew someone who went to school there. Perpetual snow showers with a few inches here and there, but almost never in a legit lake effect band.
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Nah just tracking via forecast discussions and webcams lol. Haven't reached the 'chase' level of desperation quite yet.
