CAPE

Don't be fooled again.. OP runs are higher resolution. Subject to large variations from run to run in the long range. Ensembles are perturbed and run at low res and often are not able pick up on specific details of wave interactions in the LR. They are imperfect tools used as guidance for objective analysis and forecasting. The idea of being "fooled" is emotional and based on misconceptions.

28 this morning

Various model simulations over recent days have depicted an east coast winter storm in the Dec 7-10 window. The 6z GFS does it again with some good upstream interaction between pieces of vorticity, resulting in a stronger/sharper shortwave that digs further south.

The stuff snow weenie dreams are made of.

The correlation is via the Siberian HP influence on the SPV and the lower level reflection of that, which is the AO. I believe the generally accepted idea is a stronger Siberian HP tends to weaken the SPV and that is associated with a -AO, which allows colder air to move further southward into the midlatitudes.

The why is definitely important, but this isn't the thread. I am a teacher actually, so it is a habit I guess. This is a place for weather/climate related discussion. We can all learn from each other. Anyway, back to my model dependency.

You're right. It is not as cold there in recent years. Siberian HP is generally weaker. Do you know why?

You monitor air pressure in Mongolia? Cool.

Probably need some interaction/partial phase between a NS shortwave and a piece of vorticity ejecting from the trough in the SW that's stuck underneath the ridge. Pretty much what the 12z Euro run did yesterday that produced an east coast winter storm on the 7th.

The NS flow is fast and busy with shortwaves flying around. Guidance is going to struggle with location/strength and timing of specific shortwaves in the LR. For now we appear to have a pattern than can bring below avg temps, so we keep monitoring for a discrete threat to materialize in the medium range.

The last 2 games they have cut way down on the big plays- Eddie Jackson was released and Marcus Williams riding the pine is a big part of it. Nate Wiggins improving and getting more playing time. Hated to see them give up that trash time TD but they kept everything underneath and took a lot of time off the clock. Questionable calls extended the drive ofc. Nothing new there.

The southern piece is too broad. The northern piece is a bit sharper, but they remain separated until offshore. Strong divergence aloft occurs on the downstream side when the shortwave is sharper, and that initiates lift and induces low pressure at the surface.

It's weak sauce. There are 2 areas of vorticity, neither are particularly sharp on approach, and interaction happens too late. Low forms way offshore. Some flakes flying and maybe a dusting in places is probably the upside.

Defense played pretty well minus Roquan.

The ticky tacky penalties makes NFL football so hard to watch. Just let em play for shits sake.

There is always a shallow area of HP there during the winter months. 100 percent of the time. If you are looking at h5, then I can understand your confusion.

Ravens are hard to watch. Doesn't help when the refs are literally making up penalties to call now. Lamar looks off just like he did to start the Steelers game.

18z GEFS a little more enthused for a bit of snow Sun-Mon timeframe.

You realize the HP there is a fixture every winter, right? That area is adjacent to/part of the hyper-continental climate of Siberia(and the Siberian High). It takes a specific longwave pattern to deliver the extreme cold southward into our part of the world from that region. A negative WPO/EPO in conjunction with the elongated TPV stretching southward over Hudson bay is the potential delivery mechanism in this case. With a different longwave pattern that cold HP still exists during every winter and it is largely irrelevant to our sensible weather. This is the case many more times than not.

There might be a suppression risk, but a high amplitude ridge with a slightly west biased axis is going to give the best chance (imo) of a NS wave digging further south with enough space to allow a surface low to develop in time to affect us. A low amplitude/broader ridge most likely results in shortwaves tracking further north and/or scooting off the coast with LP development occurring offshore- too late. A delicate balance when almost all the action is occurring in the NS. 12z Euro run today H5 that results in a moderate snowstorm for the MA-

Ugly AK trough right here

The Euro has been trying for several runs for around the 7th, and it gets to a pretty good outcome on the 12z run.

The western US ridge and the downstream trough orientation/axis have been discussed. The big picture as advertised on guidance is a pattern that can deliver anomalous cold. Plenty to nitpick should you choose to do so. Might end up cold and dry- that is a 'risk'. As I said in at least one post, it will probably take a significant NS shortwave to get a surface low to develop far enough south(and west) for the MA to cash in. A higher amplitude ridge with an axis further west would help to facilitate this.

It's an h5 snapshot from an ensemble mean for a specific time on a single day. The longwave pattern phase isn't stationary.

Their best play is a hail mary lol.