CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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The key is have HP to the North/NW. The warmer ssts off the coast can actually enhance a winter coastal storm with a stronger baroclinic boundary. Ofc we would need a cold air mass in place and a synoptic setup that continues the flow from the N/NW as the storm progresses.
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I could see how frustrating lake effect can be, from both a forecasting and weather weenie perspective. Imagine being just a bit on the wrong side of a death band, but it lasting for 12+ hours.
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Yeah Jones would have been a nice pickup for insurance this season, and a compensatory pick next year when he ultimately walked in free agency this offseason.
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It was spotty earlier- heavy snow showers then slack off to nothing. Looks like a nice band has formed this evening per radar, but a bit south.
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Yeah no, Ravens don't make the playoffs without Lamar. Do you know who their backup is? 8-9 won't cut it in the AFC. Mostly likely it will take 10-7 to get in. Ravens should be able to go 3-2, and finish 11-6. With Lamar ofc.
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Lake effect bust in Watertown so far. Forecast this morning for today was 11-17", and another 12-18 tonight. It's approaching 9pm and there is a couple inches of wet snow otg, roads are wet, and it isn't snowing lol.
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32 here at 840 This should be the coldest night of the Fall by a couple degrees.
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Warm trough. The kind that only produces 33 and rain. Chuck knows.
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Fucking Chiefs. Fucking Raiders.
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And also a few days later. Pretty persistent signals for those 2 windows.
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As it is the heaviest snow is south of us on that run, and as the center of that high shifts east the back end of the storm produces some snow in coastal NC and SC. Pretty cold.
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lol what? That high is north of Minnesota. There is a 1034 HP in SE Canada and its snowing on us with temps in the mid 20s.
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December 5th could be a sneaky chance for something minor. Dec 7-8 and 10-12 continue to look interesting.
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18z GEFS depicts the same idea.
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Overrunning with sprawling cold HP pressing south.
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Hard to complain about the advertised h5 pattern on the 12z EPS heading into mid Dec. Solid look out west, TPV stretched southward towards Hudson, and indications of +heights building westward into the NAO domain.
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Not bad verbatim. Some minor adjustments and some of the juice that is just offshore ends up a bit further west.
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The 12z Euro- a lot going on here. A bit out of sync with the wave interactions but as is it develops a low in the gulf that tracks up the east coast just offshore of the outer banks. A near hit.
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Damn Ralph. lol harsh dude. Have one of those big ass stouts and chill.
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A few close calls between the 6th and the 12th on the 12z GFS. Trackable possibilities.
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0.31" Should be out of here in the next hour. Just over 2" for the month. Much better than the 0.00 of October.
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I noted the jet retraction in my earlier post. Seems he expects it to be temporary. As advertised the shift in the longwave pattern is relatively minor, and could potentially allow for a more significant storm.
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Looking at the latest operational and ens guidance Dec 6-7th and 10-12 are the 2 'threat windows' that stand out. The second looks especially interesting with potential for significant NS shortwave energy to dig southward and involve moisture from the Gulf.
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Wrt the mini panic over the advertised pattern in the LR, looks like the NPJ core retracts a bit esp on the GFS/GEFS. That shifts the ridge westward some and places lower pressure in the WPO space(trends +). Even if this is real its not like the east coast is going to suddenly go warm.
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lol at a rug pull on an advertised h5 pattern 2 weeks out.
