CAPE

Low of 16

What can be gleaned from the ensembles at this point is a general increase for chances of frozen for the MA maybe as early as the 3rd. There are some hints on recent runs, but not seeing a notable signal for a discrete event yet. That is beyond day 10 on current runs, so plenty of spread/uncertainty.

Use the 6-hour member snow total panels for that purpose. A 24 hour would be better but not an option. Just go through several in succession and count the hits for that period, and include that in a post. You don't have to post the all the maps.

Why are you posting total snowfall maps if you are focusing on a specific period? This depicts the EPS mean snowfall for the weekend after new Years-

Saw a video clip a week ago where he said he is ready to go, whenever they decide to put him in there. With a short week Hill is likely not going to be available against the Texans. It will be telling if Keaton is deactivated yet again.

Nice to see the defensive turnaround. A key forced fumble and pick six- you love to see it. Ravens got lucky with their fumbles today. And they didn't kill themselves with penalties!

This team is hard to watch.

I dunno

I'm beyond getting pissed off lol. This team is too flawed to go far in the playoffs. They are what they are.

3rd and less than one. Why not QB sneak? So predictable. Steelers knew it.

Justice Hill out with a concussion. Keaton Mitchell inactive again. Must be saving him for Christmas.

Mount Holly as a low of 8 here. Looks about 10 degrees too cold per guidance. I get it's a cold airmass and it will be near optimal radiational cooling conditions, but with no snow cover, IDK.

Agree 100%

I don't necessarily think our window of opportunity is limited to early- mid Jan. Looking way out there towards the end of Jan/into early Feb on the latest Euro weeklies(fwiw), a period where many have suggested the pattern will become hostile/shit the blinds- it probably does trend more towards a typical Nina, but this is far from a shutout pattern should it materialize. It in fact looks much like h5 leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm. If that EPO ridge keeps on keeping on, we should continue to see opportunities for a wave to track underneath along the thermal boundary at times, with a flatter SER.

Go back and look at my post from this morning for that same period, focusing on the jet stream and h5. One astute poster asked if I was predicting a redux of the 96 storm.

Inverted trough. Models love to depict heavy precip from that feature in our area in the LR, but it always ends up Philly and north.

Yeah long duration snow tv lol. I had that one intense band come through that coated the deck and grass. Snow too light/temps a tad above freezing since. Still, it's a few hours of snow falling. No complaints!

Dover radar on COD. Weakening a bit now though.

Those yellows and oranges on radar to the NW look interesting.

33 with moderate snow. Coating!

Snow tv with temp at 34. If it comes down a bit heavier might get the temp to drop to near freezing and get a little coating.

A had a few flakes a a few weeks ago with some weak thing moving though. It was cold and dry so not much.

35 with big wet flakes mixing in with the the rain here.

That has to happen in order to get anomalous cold into the lowlands of the midlatitudes, in particular places that are moderated by proximity to oceans.

A 'torch' in Siberia in Jan is like -20c