CAPE
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And just for the hell of it.. ooh January
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Weeklies H5 for the beginning of Jan. Qpf looks avg to slightly above.
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New edition of the Euro Weeklies for the last week of Dec-
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Not a good surface pressure configuration up top leading in on the GEFS. Pretty much the antithesis of what we want to see. Cold is way back to the NW and comes in after the storm passes. It would take a significant piece of energy that lags behind and moves along the thermal boundary as it shifts to our southeast. One member suggests this is a possibility.
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Discombobulated. Doubtful that evolution will be the final outcome lol. That said, this is a thread the needle deal to get snow in the lowlands. Not impossible though.
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And after digging a bit (see my post above) 95-96 is considered a moderate event. So all 9 weak events since 1959 produced below avg snow for the DC area. Not that big of a deal to me as any winter can be a ratter these days. I never expect 'normal' snowfall anymore.
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My wag is we will have opportunities throughout Jan. Fwiw the Euro weeklies look cold from Jan 1 through Jan 19(end of run). It will go back and forth but some cold shots should continue. Who knows about Feb. CanSIPS suggests we are close to the thermal boundary on avg. That implies some cold periods plus precip chances.
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We talkin snow. 95-96 was borderline weak-moderate, so historically not considered weak? Seems to be the case. https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm And that is certainly implied in the quoted discussion below. From NOAA ENSO blog- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/revisiting-la-nina-and-winter-snowfall
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Ok one lol.
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Weak Ninas are especially bad for snowfall for the DC area. Pretty sure every one has produced below avg snowfall. Now that doesnt mean no snow. Folks need to keep expectations realistic. Last year was a strong Nino winter and there was one 10 day stretch where it was cold and snowed twice, and that was it here. I'll gladly take that again this winter.
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I usually head to Rehoboth leading up to Christmas. Rooting for a scraper.
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That's part of it. A lot of it has to do with the shortwave timing/degree of interaction/phasing upstream. I liked the Euro evolution at 12z. Very close to a good outcome. It will all change many times over the coming days ofc.
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What a friendly trend. We have 8 more dayzzzzzz
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It's better but not there. More confluence at h5 with a better surface High position to the north; low track a bit further east.
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Looks even better just beyond this.
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19 here
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No aspect of a forecast is accurate a month+ out on modeled simulations, but that is especially true of snow forecasts. Best you can do is maybe glean the potential for a cold pattern and the tendency for it to be wetter/drier than average.
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Maybe, but this is kinda rich coming from you lol.
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Snow maps are pretty useless imo until there is a persistent storm signal on the means.
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12z EPS for mid month has a -PNA, but it is transient verbatim. A few days later the PNA is positive with a neutral EPO. Cold remains in our source region and is on the move southeastward-
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Tend to agree in general-bring the cold. With a NS dominant flow regime though, the chances of cold and dry at our latitude are increased.
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Yeah it was better further east/NE. There was so much wind and drifting it was hard to measure here- plus there was already snow otg. My guess(plus looking at snowfall total maps) was at least 15" here.
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Which one? Second one was a legit blizzard.
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Especially since it occurred in December. We all know how unusual it is to get even a moderate event that early.
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Fwiw because the GEFS has been indecisive about the upcoming pattern. @frd This-
