CAPE

Anomalous early season winter cold with no moisture. Woot!

Hard to complain and looks cold, but remains to be seen how conducive it is for getting a significant NS shortwave to dig enough to develop a storm south of our latitude. Probably need an anticyclonic wave break to get a shortwave embedded in the flow to dive further southward/further west than these panels imply.

Yeah it looks cold, with reinforcing shots. Gotta have some legit cold for the lowlands to snow and in the current climate regime this is how we can get it. Hopefully this period won't just end up cold and dry with NS waves passing to our north.

Not seeing a discernable signal for a storm beyond late next week on the 0z ens guidance. There is plenty of broad NS vorticity embedded in the flow but a lack of sharp shortwaves as currently modeled. An amplified western US ridge with an axis further west would be more conducive for a sharper NS wave that can dig further south and involve some of the energy in the SW undercutting the ridge. That appears to be the best path to get surface low development early enough and further south for the first week of December, and what I will be watching for in upcoming model simulations. 0z Euro has the right idea and gets close in the 2nd-3rd timeframe but it doesnt come together soon enough and surface low development is a bit late/offshore.

More beneficial (cold) rain today. 0.35" Over an inch the last couple days. Denting the drought finally. eta- 0.47" total today.

Weird team. Offense can be prolific at times. The team as a whole is undisciplined, and that's a feature of a Harbaugh coached team. Tucker is now unreliable. Worst pass defense in the NFL. Monkon is a dumbass who doesn't really want to run the ball. With the changes they made in the secondary, the play was much better against the Steelers. Maybe that continues. They must reduce the penalties. Maybe Tucker can figure out why he is pushing the ball left. Get back to running for 150+ yards per game. If they can do most/all of that, they will win 10+ games and be in the playoffs.

Snow game and Steelers lose. Perfect.

Late next week probably favors places north of our region for frozen, with the thermal boundary a little too far north and the cold not quite in place yet on current ens guidance. Shortwave energy interactions/timing are not going to be accurately resolved at this point so.. still time. I remain more interested in the early December window with colder air in place as currently modeled, and the boundary further south. Recent guidance has been hinting but too far out to have any consistency with shortwave locations and timing from run to run.

T&L and heavy rain. Its been ages. 0.73"

Actual rain and wind gusts 40 to 50 tonight. I was a bit surprised at the wind part. Good thing the soil is dry as a bone and hard as a rock. Oh shit, here comes RR.

The 6z GFS gets it done with some shortwave energy riding the thermal boundary.

There is a signal on the 0z Euro ens for a moderate precip event in early Dec. About a dozen members have frozen for at least some of the MA(apart from the western highlands) in the December 2-4 period.

Ralph?

The following shortwave energy in the flow overtop the ridge gets suppressed and strung out well south, unsurprisingly. Nice to see some wintry possibilities on guidance for the beginning of December.

HH GFS brings some legit cold heading into Dec. Pretty radical look. H5 Avocado.

This is a general winning look in a Nina that can suppress the SE ridge at times, bringing shots of legit cold southward and placing the thermal boundary in a favorable spot. CFS has probably been the most persistent of the seasonal guidance the last couple months depicting the -EPO with southward stretched TPV. We have been seeing that same look on LR ens and extended guidance lately, which is definitely encouraging.

That Euro run would be a pretty straightforward path to an early season victory. Miller A!!

Too bad its forever away because that is a pretty sweet evolution with energy riding overtop the amplifying western ridge and dropping southward, inducing low pressure in the gulf that tracks right up the coast just off of Cape Hatteras. Plenty of high pressure to the north.

12+ days out. Canadian ens actually has a little something for Dec 3-4 period. Might be just cold enough for the NW burbs verbatim. Snow tv would be a win for most that early.

Not much showing up on recent ens runs.

^That's my storm. Sneaky.

They lost to the Raiders and Browns. Most penalized team in the league. Harbaugh is constantly outcoached by better coaches like Tomlin and Reid, and Monkon seems more interested in Lamar passing for 4000+ yards than actually calling plays to win games at times. Henry had zero carries in the 4th quarter, and was on the sideline for that hideously 'designed' 2 point attempt. Still don't trust him after the AFC Championship game debacle.

A KC win potentially helps the Ravens with playoff seeding as they have the tiebreaker over Buffalo. Ravens aren't going to end up with a better record than the Chiefs. Ravens have a lot to clean up. Right now I would predict they end up 10-7, maybe 11-6.

I get that, but the play has him running left towards the sideline- even if a receiver was in that spot, if there was good coverage then what? I'm sure the Steelers love seeing Lamar running parallel to the goal line with the pursuit they have. The play design was crap.