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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    The 0z EPS has a Miller B signal for the 6th, and then another potential wave beyond that. Jan 6-10 looks very active on on the mean. A little too soon and don't have time to pore over the individual members for details, but this run definitely does not look dry.
  2. CAPE
    Strong signal for an east coast storm on the 0z GEFS for the 8-9 window.
  3. CAPE
    Big picture reminder- Of all the indices we track, historically a -AO, especially when combined with a -NAO, correlates to higher probability for cold and increased chances for snow for the DC area. All guidance forecasts -AO/NAO in addition to a neutral/+PNA and -EPO for early Jan. No guarantees as we always need some luck with timing, but this gives us a hell of a chance to achieve the desired outcome, entering prime time snow climo.
  4. CAPE
    The 7-10 period is active on the GEFS. Looks like possibly 3 different events on the mean but some of that is differences with timing among members.
  5. CAPE
    Yeah the 9th-10th. Euro has it too but its a bit more convoluted/further north.
  6. CAPE
    12z GFS and Euro with snow on the 9th.
  7. CAPE
    This is probably a nitpick but the h5 look depicted in the LR on the GEFS has a broader 'bowl' shaped trough with the ridge axis a bit further west, while the latest EPS runs have a more prominent Aleutian trough with the downstream ridge/trough configuration shifted a bit eastward. The GEFS look would seem more conducive to getting earlier low pressure development with a track right along the east coast. The EPS depiction could have more of a tendency for offshore low pressure.
  8. CAPE
    3 games in 11 days coming off the bye. 3-0 All dominant wins. LFG!
  9. CAPE
    MV3!!
  10. CAPE
    No left fade lately. Just down the middle.
  11. CAPE
    Anyone feeling sorry for the Steelers fans? The Chiefs might actually be very good right now, despite the smoke and mirrors routine for much of the season, not looking great and getting every call and every break. And Mahomes is always money when it counts.
  12. CAPE
    There is still a storm signal for the 4th on the 12z GEFS, but a bit weaker than the last 2 runs.
  13. CAPE
    It's cold, it's gray. Actually feels like Christmas day. Enjoy the holidays everyone.
  14. CAPE
    Snowstorm on the 8th then the avocado drops.
  15. CAPE
    There is one monster hit, but there are 4 or 5 others with frozen for the MA plus one that's suppressed south. Pretty solid signal on 2 of the last 3 GEFS runs for a potential D9-10 event.
  16. CAPE
    The strongest signal on the EPS continues to be around the 8th.
  17. CAPE
    7-8 members have frozen for the MA in the 4-5 window, biased somewhat southward. 2 big hits.
  18. CAPE
    Solid signal on the HH/Xmas eve GEFS for the 4th-5th.
  19. CAPE
    Multiple signals on the latest EPS from around the 3rd on, but the 8th is the strongest. Actually favors frozen south of us.
  20. CAPE
    It tried. Just different timing between shortwaves and not enough spacing this run. The 0z Euro tried too. That is definitely our first window of interest. 6z GEFS has 7 or 8 members that imply frozen for our general area in the 4th-5th timeframe
  21. CAPE
    I think the extended tools are probably most useful to take a peak beyond the end of the latest ensemble run by a week to 10 days, but not 20 or 30 lol.
  22. CAPE
    18 here this morning. I think the forecast low was 23 or something.
  23. CAPE
    The combo of Nina and the TPV position/NS energy rotating southward around that complicates things. We end up with more LP to our north/northwest than we want. Wave timing becomes more critical to get the outcome we want.
  24. CAPE
    Also the extended products that far out aren't very reliable- as we all well know from last winter's perpetually advertised epic pattern that never materialized.
  25. CAPE
    I made a post about this a day or 2 ago. As long as the EPO ridge persists that pattern isn't hostile. We can have a SER and still get a wave to track underneath. Exactly what happened in Jan 22 when we were apparently in a complete shit the blinds pattern a week or 2 prior.
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