CAPE

The worst matchup would be KC and Philly. We just saw that play out 2 years ago. Boring. I want the Bills to win, but If it ends up KC vs Washington I wouldn't hate it. Love to see them get there for a chance at a 3-peat and lose to an upstart team with a rookie QB.

Let em. Who cares. They do anyway. Anyone in the sports media who has any credibility would not use Daniel's early success as evidence Lamar has somehow underachieved. The reason they lost to KC at home last Jan and Buffalo last week are not solely on Lamar. Monkon, Harbaugh. Flowers, a rash of penalties, and last week mostly Andrews were big reasons. Lamar had 2 bad plays the whole game - a misread on an interception that amounted to a punt, and the fumble on a bad snap that he should have just fallen on, and Buffalo scored off that one. He was pretty much spectacular outside of those 2 plays. The Andrews fumble when the Ravens had all the momentum and were driving for a probable go ahead score was THE killer. Game changer. His drop on the 2 point try was bad, but that would have only tied the game. Allen would have had 1:30 and 2 timeouts to make a few plays and set up a game winning field goal.

Why would that be embarrassing? How about Daniels getting a ring before Allen or Burrow? Or Goff? Would that be embarrassing for them?

It comes mostly from 3 members with pretty big hits between the 2nd and the 4th. Almost nothing on the rest.

A couple tweaks on the Canadian evolution(mostly a little stronger/further southwestward HP over southern Canada) and at least some of our region could see more sleet/snow.

If you expand out the view so the upstream trough near the GoA can be seen, might be a hint of less/later interaction as that trough digs southeastward. The Canadian has a different orientation wrt the WPO ridge and that trough, the trough isn't as deep and there is less interaction/ northward 'pull' on the ejecting shortwave energy.

I will be watching that shortwave energy up in Canada. With the antecedent HP over the eastern US exiting stage right as the storm approaches, we are going to need a flow of cold/dry air from the north given the low is not likely to take an ideal track to our south. Might get a Miller B deal though.

^Its actually a hellacious ice storm lol.

A feature to keep an eye on is the presence of shortwave energy in eastern Canada and associated confluence/convergence inducing HP at the surface. If that energy ends up stronger/digs a bit more there is the possibility of a stronger/souther HP in SE Canada. The 0z Canadian is the closest to a decent outcome for some of the region at this point.

10 this morning

Latest Euro Weeklies for the week beyond the end of the 0z ens run. This is actually a decently cold look with cold air delivery mechanism between the ridge over AK and the TPV. Plus the thermal boundary is very close by for shortwaves to traverse.

High of 27 after a low of 1. Didn't think it would make it to the forecast high of 31 today.

Looks like a good rain could be in the offing. At least with temps getting into the low 40s in a few days getting the hose out and washing the car will be possible. I'll probably do that Sunday.

The core of the cold air mass is on the way out. Last night was nearly perfect for radiating, enhanced by snow cover.

There is a signal for storminess on the latest GEFS and EURO ens runs in the Feb 1-4 window. A handful of members from each model have some frozen in our region. Still pretty far out in the LR, but not a particularly cold looking period on the mean at this point.

Down to 1.2 at 7am.

2 here at 6am

Early Feb has been a window with potential for awhile now. With a modeled +NAO however, timing is critical. There is cold HP to our north but it will be on the move eastward without any block in the flow in place. In this case the low tracks northward to our west as HP shifts towards/off the NE coast. The temporary damming allows for some mixed precip in the northern/western parts of the region on this run.

That's not really been the case overall. This right here is an atmospheric block(Rex type) with a quasi-stationary vortex 'stuck' underneath a ridge, same as what we see in the NA at times(which we love in that case). It alters(splits) the flow. This isnt a particularly long lasting one as modeled.

7 at 11pm

10 at 8pm.

Scattershot but there are some decent hits among the ens members for our region in the first week of Feb. There are 2-3 members that heavily contribute to the Central VA jack(mostly 1 lol)

A bit of banter but it's a slow period. I was bored at work today so I read through the 1/6 storm obs thread- I needed sleep that night so from about 11pm to 5am I was out. Slept through the beginning of the storm. Anyway reliving it a bit I wanted to look at H5 again. Damn that was a really impressive h5 look, and pretty characteristic of some of our major snow events historically. The vortex part of the block was extreme and displaced southward from ideal, which limited potential somewhat, esp for the northern parts of our region.

Yep. we need some vorticity to eject eastward underneath, but if the mutha load comes out, pretty risky with a +NAO.

Pretty good outcome at this range. Just one op run. With no help in the NA we gonna need some good timing.