CAPE

It was definitely cold and with significant snow otg for much of Jan and being in an anti UHI area, and not close to either bay for moderation, pretty believable.

Probably, but there is always a chance for a fluke, especially in March. The thing is, we probably see some -NAO action develop again, but not until late March/early April when it is completely effing useless, unless you want cold and damp at that point.

I am all for continued drought until maybe early June at this point. Maybe once in all the years I have lived here did my seasonal woodland wetland stay dry through Spring, requiring no larvicide treatments. I would love to have that situation again. Once leaf out happens and days are longer and hotter, the water table is dropping, so even a deluge in late Spring/early Summer won't result in water lying there.

Just looking at the ensembles, and there is no real signal for a winter storm at our latitude or south through D15. Storms track to the north/northwest, followed by cold coming in behind. This makes sense given the advertised +AO/+NAO. With no NA help at all, perfect wave timing(probably a trailing wave) will likely be required to get snow here. Not impossible, but h5 and surface maps indicating cold over the eastern US on the means can be deceiving when it mostly comes in the wake of mild storms taking bad tracks.

15 Looking forward to 50s

Clearly the climate has changed over the history of Earth. Not even disputable. The reasons are varied. Its mind boggling that so many want to deny that the reason its changing now is largely attributed to the industrial age.

You do know though lol.

Climate change is settled science though. That's all that matters on a scientific, fact based forum. The politicization of it is completely irrelevant. I mean, some believe the earth is flat, but that is factually incorrect.

I actually teach marine engineers who work on NOAA research vessels. They will be out of work.

Yeah I brought this up earlier. Its gonna happen, and this is a science based weather forum. Taking the chainsaw to NOAA isn't pertinent or discussion worthy?

As I mentioned in some previous posts, this is likely the beginning of our last gasp window for a potential winter storm, ending around the the 10th. Pretty decent signal for a coastal low here with possible frozen precip.

You can't change the minds of the willfully ignorant. You will learn that with experience.

I thought that was my storm lol! The storm (window) claim thing is super amusing lately. I mean I had the one in 2022, but to be fair we were in a complete shit the blinds pattern of despair when I saw the potential way out. And it actually happened. That is my one and only "storm claim". And it was more of a recognition of a major pattern change along with the potential to produce a snowstorm pretty quickly. I retired after that one.

I wasn't referring to approval rating. That is historically bad for this early in a presidency. I meant nearly half of the electorate actually voted for this shit.

Nothing about the fucked up political situation is going to be fixed by bringing it here though. Unfortunately nearly half this country thinks what's going on is awesome. Engagement is futile. This is simply and sadly where we are at.

Sometimes there is overlap. As a scientific community with a focus on weather and climate, this shouldn't just be brushed aside or ignored because it is 'politics'. https://www.npr.org/2025/02/15/nx-s1-5297183/noaa-national-weather-service-trump?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5157377-trump-administration-noaa-cuts-imminent/

https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/snowmaps2/Great Atlantic coastal snowstorms.pdf https://www.glenallenweather.com/historylinks/history2/vawxhistory.pdf

This is probably the most likely period overall for something interesting to occur.

Drinking a Wicked Weed Perni-Haze IPA. Kinda been bored with the NE style Hazys for awhile, but picked it up as a single big beer can just for the hell of it. Rather enjoying it to my surprise. It seems quite good, but might just be that I haven't been into these much lately so a nice change of pace.

As of now, this window looks like maybe the best chance for something wintry- in the form of a southern stream shortwave ejecting eastward and riding the thermal boundary just to our south with cold air pressing.

If that's what he is specifically referring to, then yes the strength and depth of this cold airmass with a southward suppressed thermal boundary was not conducive to a weakish, flat, southern stream wave doing anything other than what it did- moving west to east and exiting the coast well to our south.

Its not 'too cold' to snow. We don't have a hyper continental climate. We do cold and dry/mild and wet pattern cycles quite efficiently though.

And...no one cares about whackUweather.

Given the metrics heading into winter we were pretty lucky to get any significant -AO/NAO periods. Going forward into March our chances for cold/possible snow will be driven largely by a more favorable Pacific.

EPO is still forecast to go negative around the end of the month on the means. Prior to that we have a +PNA Chuck.