CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Light snow falling here now.
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I know lol. I am most definitely a stickler for homophone misuse(abuse). I rarely do it. I always re-read what I wrote right after posting just to double check for misspellings etc.
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I mean, I effing corrected that like 30 seconds after I posted lol. ofc you caught it.
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Just having a little fun. When the models were cranking out the epic snow for our current window, I never bought it given the UL pattern. Snow/mix/ rain slop was the most likely outcome for these events. The fact we might sneak in a moderate snow event this week before it gets washed away by the next wave is a huge win to me. Getting perfect timing/spacing/amplification multiple times is asking too much in an 'okay' pattern. Looks like a fun period upcoming overall.
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This is the beginning/lead in to our upcoming epic (multi KU) period. It's not etched in stone that this will be a big MA rainier with cold coming in behind imo. A few days ago I had a little fun with the PD III possibility, and it won't be that, but a rain ending as snow deal or a secondary wave is a possibility Sunday into Monday.
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I'm not sure anyone else could have seen the persistently favorable h5 looks advertised by LR guidance for that period and made a bold call for a big winter storm.
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29 and cloudy
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6z EPS A half to 1 inch of that from about DC south is from today.
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There is a break between the 2 waves. The second one begins as snow before going over to mix/rain. This is the actual snow map for wave one, and up to an inch of that for central VA into S MD is from today.
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Suppose its snowing heavily in S VA and you are smoking cirrus? Without an Arctic airmass in place your more northern area could easily be warmer.
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I never said the ensembles looked amazing for next weekend, but there is some uncertainly for that period wrt the overall evolution and storm track.
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Don't sleep on late next weekend/PD. Probably not PD III but I have kind of liked that period. Some ens members on the 12z run were pretty interesting.
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Why expect it to be the same? Different op run at range- more than a week out.
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+NAO? That's mine btw.
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Maybe
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31. All freezing rain since the start. Icy on the deck but don't think roads will be a problem. Should go above freezing in the next couple hours.
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Absolutely, but a little too late for a PDIII potential storm.
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Btw, PDIII potential here.
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Not as much time to fuck off on here for sure. Just calling it as I see it. It's but another op run and quite possibly does not represent the actual outcome. Hopefully we can do better.
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Not the best look up top at the surface. Not horrible, but with HP off the NE coast its hard to imagine we don't mix or go to rain beyond the end of that run.
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To be a -NAO or not be a -NAO. Call it what the hell you want but that's a hell of a HL block.
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Completely agree with this.
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That was a Dilbert reference lol. Love that one. I like to think I am pretty level headed with my posts.
