CAPE

Where? PSU's yard? Forecast high for greater DC-Baltimore area is 40 with plenty of sun.

Other than padding stats a tiny bit, what's the difference? With mid Feb sun and and high temps of 40, 3 inches will disappear just as quickly as 1-2.

Yes, looking forward to yet another beach chase. At least we can get some legit cold in a Nina at times. The typical 'domestic' cold in a Nino doesn't seem to work so much anymore. Once again we see LR guidance advertise the epic sustained NA block in conjunction with an amped -EPO with cross polar flow, and as usual it's a unicorn.

Well, he is chronically hyperbolic among his other issues. Not sure why anyone bothers reading his crap.

The blend suggesting 1-2 the last couple runs. Seems reasonable. This is a fairly moisture starved fast mover, and not very cold either. Boom is probably 3 in the lowlands.

Go ahead and pass lol. I'm way good with that outcome. Never kick a few inches of snow out of bed, even if it only lasts a few mins. Better than more rain, or sunny and 55. We have 6 months of summer on the doorstep.

That is a tenuous way to get a legit block. Transient -NAO, sure. Guidance did indicate a retrograding Scandi ridge for a time, which is a path to a legit, sustained NA block. Clearly that idea was wrong though.

Damn I wish. Jonesing for one. Drank a KBS though, and now sipping on an old fashioned.

Weed(or 120s) clearly aren't working for me.

Then stay the fuck home. No one here cares what triggers you or what kind of day you are having.

Thanks chuck.

Snow TV in Easton for maybe an hour. Looked at my security cam at home and there was a coating on the grass and tree branches. Better than nothing.

Same sort of signal on the 6z GEFS. Getting NS energy to dig far enough south to phase in time has been challenging this winter. The weaker than expected look in the NA probably doesn't help for this period. Still 10 days out.

0z EPS v GEFS for Saturday. GEPS is closer to the EPS. If everything breaks right, maybe a light to moderate event for at least part of the region.

This weekend/early next week is still on the table. Guidance still hasn't resolved the storm for tonight.

Pretty close to NE MD PUMMELED!

Nice disco from Mt Holly. They are adjusting. Probably more to come. with a broad upper-level low across Quebec and Ontario driving a northern stream shortwave down across the Great Lakes, a transfer to a rapidly intensifying coastal low will occur after midnight, with the surface low quickly transferring eastward across Virginia and off the Delaware and southern NJ coast by early Tuesday morning. With the upper-low remaining strong and closed off at 500 mb along with tightening mid-level low along a strong baroclinic zone extending from the Chesapeake east-northeastward off the mid-Atlantic coast, the low will continue to rapidly intensify, dropping below 980 mb as it pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast to south of Nantucket by Tuesday afternoon. The mid and upper-level low will only further intensify, as northern stream vorticity partially tries to `phase` into the main upper-level low. This is a very dynamic meteorological set-up, and those dynamics will result in particularly heavy precipitation in the cold sector of this fast-moving storm, resulting in heavy snow. The keys for our region continues to be how quickly the coastal low takes over and intensifies, and subsequently how quickly cold air is drawn southward late tonight through Tuesday morning, resulting in a changeover to snow from the Poconos down to the I-95 corridor. The situation for our area has escalated quickly with the past round or two of model runs overnight, not only with respect to the high-resolution models but the larger scale global models as well. Not only has the projected storm track shifted a little farther south, but with a stronger mid and upper-level low and a tighter mid and low-level temperature gradient, stronger dynamic forcing along with stronger cold air advection into the system looks to now result in a quicker changeover to snow, and heavier precipitation hanging back in the cold sector of the storm. Model QPF rose for many areas near and northeast of I-95, with some guidance even suggesting close to 1.5 inches of liquid from the I-78 corridor northwestward. While snow ratios will be initially poor, situation will change very quickly as the transfer to the coastal low occurs and the dynamic mid and upper-low passes to the south of much of our area. As a result, snow totals have been raised across the entire area northwest of I-95 by a good 2 to 4 inches; even more of a jump around the I-78 corridor. 8-12 inches, perhaps even locally more, are possible across the higher terrain around the Pocono Plateau to Sussex County NJ and even northwest Morris County, and some adjacent areas. See the latest Winter Storm Warnings that were upgraded from the earlier Watch, and a strip of Advisories to the south of that, northwest of I-95. Rain will linger a bit longer, but change over to snow quickly from 3 AM to 8 AM, from I-78 to I-95 respectively. This is of great concern for the Tuesday morning commute in particular, with 1 to 2 inch per hour rates possible along the I-80 corridor, and potentially down to I-78 as well. Farther south and east, low- level temperatures will be more in the mid-30s with stronger forcing not co- located with the dendritic growth region. Combined with milder ground and pavement temperatures, snow still may struggle to accumulate along the I-95 corridor. However, given the rather dynamic situation with strong frontogenetic forcing, there may be a brief window for heavy snow even close to I-95 around the later part of the morning commute that will bear watching. Again though, that looks like it will struggle to amount to more than a slushy inch or two. That part of the forecast may need to be adjusted by later shifts, though.

No one saw the 6z Euro?

His physical skill set is better than Brady in every way. The intangibles are similar.

True. Mahomes is better than Brady though.

Did anyone really think Purdy was going to beat Mahomes? It would have taken a perfect game.

OT we go.

That blocked PAT looms large. And the turnovers.

Money kick. But, Mahomes has plenty of time.