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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Weak and south wont do it. This has always been about a strong low, which requires a damn near perfect phase at h5, and a perfect LP track, with heavy precip and dynamic cooling. A lot to ask for just to get it to snow moderately. The antecedent airmass is pretty bad.
  2. CAPE
    Sounds fun. Enjoy it. It isn't gonna snow in the lowlands here lol.
  3. CAPE
    A -PNA can work if the other key indices are favorable: -AO/NAO and a ridge in the WPO and /or the EPO space.
  4. CAPE
    Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side.
  5. CAPE
    Other than me, he is keeping this thread alive lol.
  6. CAPE
    Potential is still there. I guess most aren't paying attention to potential down the road and are clinging to a Presidents day storm that may yield few sloppy inches mostly for NW areas, which is fine given the alternative- rain or nothing at all lol.
  7. CAPE
    The LP is a weakling. Not gonna work in this setup with marginal cold. A couple inches in the favored areas looks to be the upside.
  8. CAPE
    They needed to sign another starter. Was worried Elias was going to pull the same old shit.
  9. CAPE
    Might make a run at 60 mid next week. Mid 50s look likely at this point.
  10. CAPE
    Yeah I didn't read his post correctly. That sort of thing doesn't really interest me, but it probably wont if the forecast pattern comes to fruition.
  11. CAPE
    I wouldn't care if we had gotten some snow on top of the glacier, but most of that cold was wasted, other than keeping snow/ice cover otg for an extended period. At least our dry streak continues lol.
  12. CAPE
    The WPO is forecast to be significantly negative for the last week of the month. The advertised orientation of the ridge can help offset the -PNA some, and the EPO is forecast to be only slightly positive before rising some the last few days of the month. AO and NAO look to be negative, but not severely. If all this verifies then the only 'unfavorable' index is the PNA, which is forecast to trend less negative from the 20th through the end of the month.
  13. CAPE
    lol I don't think he likes the last week of Feb for cold. -PNA eta: +EPO!
  14. CAPE
    I've been posting about that period in the other thread. The 'good' pattern has been getting delayed a bit but beyond the 20th has been looking more favorable on the ens means, with hints of storms.
  15. CAPE
    This is all silliness and has no relevance to what actually occurs. Weather does what it does when it does. Doesn't give a fuck about weekend rules or whatever else.
  16. CAPE
    A few
  17. CAPE
    This period doesn't look quite as good as it did a few days ago, but guidance is hinting at a few chances for wintery weather. Still have a developing -WPO and a decent NA look with a modestly -NAO and tendency for lower heights in the 50-50 region. Yes the trough out west is not ideal, but also not a death knell given the other h5 features. Still looks like a somewhat colder regime is in the works based on the HL upper level flow.
  18. CAPE
    What we have is time- time for the models to converge on the perfect phase...time for the upper levels to align so that we somehow have a cold feed from the north into a pacific airmass.. and then the perfect track/ strong low pressure with heavy precip and dynamic cooling. All meteorologically possible!
  19. CAPE
    Is there any other model that giveth hopium? Just the CMC Lets fucking go!?
  20. CAPE
    More detailed discussion in the other thread including the 0z Canadian run.
  21. CAPE
    The 0z CMC is pretty much what we want- the 50-50 low is strong and somewhat displaced southward, locking in HP to the north. There is no phase and the developing coastal low is relatively weak, but good enough and the track is close to ideal.
  22. CAPE
    The other problem with this run is, where's the 50-50 low? If it were in place, as that low strengthens and moves off the coast a bit it would probably snow.
  23. CAPE
    @Ji Unlike the 6z run yesterday which had a perfect phase with the NS vorticity digging southward in behind the SS energy at the right time, the latest 6z run has a 'bad' phase. That NS piece is strong and gets involved too late, but rapidly intensifies what was a weak surface low, and its initially too close to the coast. Next panel-
  24. CAPE
    This was the ultimate way to win for the region, but a complete thread the needle with the perfect phase and that intense vortex near the 50-50 region
  25. CAPE
    I think there is a very narrow path to victory for this, and the Canadian is probably close to it. The track and strength of the low is critical with the lack of antecedent cold. It probably will take heavy precip and dynamic cooling to get accumulating snow for places east of the mountains. Unlikely to see frozen regardless on the coastal plain.
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