CAPE

You're on the right track, I think. Both tornados and hurricanes exhibit vorticity and wind(a vector quantity). The big difference is the scale, but at a given point the wind velocity is what it is in both cases. Now consider the vorticity and lift. Much of the extreme damage we see in a tornado results from the(straight line) wind at a point PLUS the very strong localized lift within the more localized vorticity- an intense localized suction vortex. This produces the forces we see in videos that dramatically rips off roofs and uproots trees while lifting the debris rapidly upwards. Tornados are more intense, or 'violent' in a much more localized area.

Harbaugh is an atrocious coach. Its criminal that he has designated Mitchell inactive for so many games, said he was not a "good enough" kick returner, and said he was the odd man out/putting him in would make it obvious to the defense he was getting the ball. He truly is an incompetent boob. A little late for this isnt it? So fucking dumb. Oh yeah, the plan HE came up with. GTFOH. https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/baltimore-ravens/john-harbaugh-keaton-mitchell-plan-bears/

Who is they lol? He says he is a science teacher. That being said, last winter was not one of the coldest on record.. it was cold relative to current climo.

There will be some wind so plenty of leaves will come down. And I have a lot yet to come down lol. All I have to do is look up at all those leaves. The blower is tuned up and ready.

One feature that continues to be a constant on all the extended products is an Aleutian trough, with a downstream +PNA.. and also to varying degrees a -NAO. We shall see how it plays out but good signs for now as we head into early winter.

Just keep the damn -PNA at bay Chuck.

Eh, when there is snow otg for damn near 3 weeks in these parts given current climo, its pretty damn cold. Hard to compare it to 'cold' winters decades ago for obv reasons.

Latest QPF from WPC I think its probably gonna rain

Still some differences in the evolution and track across guidance. Go with the blend.

The weeklies/extended tools can be useful, but probably only for a week or so beyond day 15 on the ens run in most cases. Just my opinion based on experience. Not to say they can't have the right idea 30 days out but it's more of a crapshoot.

Do you realize a single Euro control run extended to day 46 is the equivalent of extending one run of the GFS deterministic out 46 days? And what you posted is a 30 day mean of the Control for that period. How useful do you think that is? Here is the latest run a day later-

Your observation is probably(at least partly) because we have had quite a cool early Fall that has continued through October, instead of the usual second summer that can be warm right into mid October. Color definitely seems ahead of schedule here. Nearing peak. The upper Midwest has also been generally above normal, so without significant elevation differences it probably evens out. Just my take.

I'll be pissed if they trade him, but that's the word among the pundits. Again, this is a Harbaugh thing. "He is the odd man out". Oh fuck off with that crap. Hopefully he is out after this season, although I doubt it.

One nitpick today- the Ravens guard play is still bad, because they made no changes lol. What happened to the open competition during the bye week? Harbaugh hates Ben Cleveland. Just cut the guy. At least Keaton Mitchell got a chance- most likely showcasing him for a trade. I will always and forever want Harbaugh fired because he is a fucking dolt.

If the Packers beat the Steelers tonight, Ravens would only be 2 games back.

Nice job by Snoop. Defense playing better. Ravens have a pulse. And wtf how did the Bengals lose? Good day for the Ravens.

We have seen Caleb Williams cry. Raven's defense needs to make him want to cry today. Let him be comfortable in the pocket, and he has the arm talent to make you pay.

I believe in the WDI. The PDO? Eh, just hope for less hostility, which it seems to be trending towards. Kind of aligns historically- a weak cold ENSO should correlate to a weakly negative PDO. Bottom line is if we have periods with a +PNA and/or -EPO, and get a little help in the NA, we should have cold shots with storm chances. The rest is luck with timing waves, as always.

The punishment they will face will be tomorrow- when they get outcoached by the Bears lol. Monken again will refuse to stick with Henry the the run game-this time against a defense that is awful against the run, and will instead try to make Huntley into Dan Marino.

High of 57. Been cloudy since mid afternoon. Currently 56.

And the latest. Still quite a bit of uncertainty among the guidance wrt storm evolution and impacts. So the blend is the way to go for now. Most here only care about precip since it has been dry, so here is that. However depending on the exact track/evolution there could also be major impacts for coastal areas that took a big hit recently.

Yeah pretty clear he was never going to play. He ran the Scout team- not considered a FULL practice. QBs who are on the mend and not ready yet do that. Also look at the other moves- like explicitly naming Huntley the No 2, and adding him to the 53 man roster.

The Bears give up over 5 yds per carry. Patrick Ricard is back. If Monken fucks this game plan up, tries to get cute with tush pushes and whatever other dumb shit he does, he should be fired immediately. Run the damn ball. Control the clock. Score enough and keep the defense fresh. No brainer.

Harbaugh lol. He was exposed this morning by Rapoport. Lamar ran the scout team yesterday.

Huntley gets the start tomorrow. Lamar ruled out. Seems they don't want to put him back in there Sunday with a game on Thursday night. That's the target now. Ofc if they lose tomorrow, might as well give him a couple more weeks to get fully healthy.