CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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18z GEFS for Wed night into Thurs- a half inch or so- plus the next "event"(my storm). For the snow map freaks- Taking it out further to include the @NorthArlington101storm(not likely correct ofc)
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Up to a half inch of snow in my forecast for Wed night. Woohoo!
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Natty Blend for my storm. Hmmm. Not sure this will look as good next run. Heavily weight towards the GFS?
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18z GEFS
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Peace Yeah when it shifts south 80 miles.
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GEFS 12z and 18z- a little more consistent than the op, as expected.
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Hey now both PSU and I staked a claim on that period, but if he agrees then its yours.
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I think that chance might be gone. The primary energy is likely too little too late wrt orientation and also sharpness. Still time with this one though and the guidance has been erratic as hell.
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Yeah I will take scraps bro if this is the result-
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I care about snow, not the date lol. The GFS keys on a different piece of energy every other run it seems. Lately its been 19th or 20th for our region or just north. 12z run-
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The ens mean has been somewhat better, so lets see what it has. Still 6-7 days out
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Yeah nothing. GFS is so inconsistent and bad, and its the only model that offers any hope lol.
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WB is behind. Its around 15z Tues that is of interest.
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Although its the trailing energy the produces the lift and precip on previous runs, so maybe
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Damn WB so slow. But I don't like it at hour 102. Positively tilted.
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Its frenetic as fuck. Fun! GFS has been most persistent, although all over the place from run to run.
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The Cape storm is centered on the the 19th-20th. Anything else is not mine lol. That's the window I said I liked for a winter storm based on the ens h5 look several days ago now. It has changed some ofc. But still.
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Its been frustratingly close. I have a feeling...but it might just be this HH bourbon.
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See? You don't know how to interpret ensemble guidance. Stick to the op runs and go from happy to hissy fit every other run.
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Depending on the model/specific run it looks like the 18th, or the 19-20th on the GFS/GEFS. Looks like there could be 2 pieces where neither does much of anything, maybe a dusting(Euro). Next few runs might be interesting- small chance this could end up better.
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EPS does have a bit more of a ridge than the GEFS for around the 24th- both have trended to more a trough out west initially before it shifts east and flattens the ridge. Then we have the CMC ens with a trough and a bit of a storm- snow verbatim.
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The point was the SE ridge is transient. And its an op run at range. Ens means have been depicting a flat/suppressed ridge and a gradient look with colder air just to the north and avg to slight below for our area.
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GEFS still looks interesting for that window, although the boundary probably is a tad further north than we want verbatim.
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I liked the 23-28 window, and I thought you concurred. Its an op run, but that ridge is transient, then we end up with this-
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Cape storm wont quite die on the GFS/GEFS
