CAPE

If we gonna do snow maps, do it right. Zoom out a bit. And THIS is the total.

I guess my technical thread is dead. I'm here now. Oh well. People love the snow maps and emotional pendulums. I'll deal with it.

There are at least 5 key pieces of energy in the western half of the US on this panel, and all of them will play a role in the ultimate outcome.

Not just spacing young lad. Timing and interactions. There are multiple pieces of energy-vorticity ribbons and balls of vorticity, on the playing field. No way to know exactly how the interplay will work out at this range.

You really are gonna move there? Good for you. I bet its bang for the buck.

Maybe just OD on Viagra? Seems like a better idea than injecting your junk.

Anybody see this? Maybe I haven't been paying attention but apparently if you pump up your willy for a bigger bulge you go further! Reports alleging that some ski jumpers are injecting their penises to make them larger stem from a strategy to gain an aerodynamic edge to achieve longer, more successful jumps. This phenomenon, often referred to in media as "penisgate," is believed to be an attempt to circumvent regulations regarding the sizing of ski jumping suits. Manipulating the Crotch Point: By artificially increasing the size of their genital area (using substances like hyaluronic acid), athletes can create a lower-hanging crotch. This allows them to wear a slightly larger suit with more fabric, which generates more lift. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/feb/06/penisgate-winter-olympics-ski-jumpers-acid-penis-health-risks-explainer

This is very acceptable for a mean at this range. GEFS and CMC ens are decent too. Pretty strong signal.

If its meteorologically possible, we track it. Fuck an MJO. It isnt the master of the atmosphere.

The NAM did a remarkable(well not for the NAM) 180 from one run to the next near gametime. The ICON was better lol.

It seems to be the best opportunity for something, for now. Have to monitor the h5 look to see if it degrades in future runs. That's what has tended to happen recently.

6z GEFS has it.

0.56" total Glad it wasn't more. Already mucky with the snow melt.

Cold rain. Temp down to 36 and 0.27"

I lived up there for almost 10 years as a kid( in the 80s), so I get the historical advantages in marginal setups. About 10 miles south of Westminster at an elevation just under 800 feet. I think Westminster averages about 35 inches, probably a bit less where I lived but not by much.

Other than the ratter a few years ago I have been right around or just under the long term avg in recent winters. Ninas can tend to have colder periods and over here we can do well with late developing/offshore coastals. Lots of Ninas lately and not bad at all here wrt snowfall. Btw that 18.5" is for Denton, 10 miles south of me. Years ago when the CPC allowed the ability to look up historical data for many stations(free), I did Denton, Centerville, and Chestertown. IIRC Centerville was 19" and Chestertown about the same or a bit more. What happened to that? Is there any other resource where detailed historical weather data can be obtained?

It probably affects us all proportionally. Long term avg here is 18.5. No idea what it is now, but its less than that.

Light rain, 38 degrees 0.15" so far

Because there isnt a NA blocking set up, the success of the upcoming potential events largely lies with timing of the vortices moving into the 50-50 space- they will be on the move and we need the confluence/convergence on the west side to flatten the flow some and keep surface HP in place.

2 potential windows in a less than ideal pattern-hard to ask for more. The 20th is the longer shot for now. The window centered on the 23rd looks better, but unfortunately as we get closer the looks have become less favorable lately. We just cant know yet.

The Miller B signal has been there on the mean for a few days now, but it has trended south on the EPS on recent runs. Discussed this in the other thread. Still a bit of a longshot, but still some time for adjustments. The window around the 23rd is also intriguing(maybe more so) with a Miller B look, but further south. The look up top is nice with HP to the N/NW and the 50-50 low.

We have had some timely blocking episodes in recent winters, but not anything I would consider sustained. A transient -NAO doesnt mean there is an atmospheric block. Maybe 2009-10 was a unicorn and we never see that again, but I hope that's not the case.

I dunno. This just doesnt look like a a winner baby, not for our latitude. Now a stronger low along the coast, you would have something up your way at least. It doesnt really deepen until its well offshore though. And the High to the NE with lower pressure to the NW, kinda inverted from what we want, esp in a marginal Pacific airmass. Not like we have an antecedent cold air mass in place, but retreating. Its freaking mild air leading in. I think we agree in general, but I just don't think it applies in all marginal situations. A slightly stronger High to the north, even with the same weakish low and track might have been enough to tip the scales up your way. Its the fine details in a marginal setup that can make the difference.

How about a Modoki, with hella NA blocking? We can't have nice things anymore

Yup. We had an arctic desert for 20 days.