CAPE

Latest blend. NWS relies pretty heavily on this product at range when there is still some disparity among guidance. Don't see this often 5 days out.

Yeah its not done-

I agree(you saw my post a couple pages back). 12z does actually eject significant energy from the SW, via a partial phase with the energy dropping south from the Pac NW. 18z doesnt, its flatter, but is slightly better with the silly snow maps. Ofc that's only part of the story- the timing/depth of NS energy associated with the TPV is another component.

On the GFS its mostly how much interaction/phasing occurs out west- more on the 12z while 18z pretty much misses, so ends up flatter/souther downstream with the precip. (see my post a page back) The 18z GEFS is closer to 12z wrt that interaction, but a tad later.

Subtle differences in the interaction between the pieces of h5 vorticity make a pretty significant difference at the surface downsteam- one such difference occurs here with a lack of phasing between the NW energy dropping southward and the Baja vortex. Compare to 12z- some phasing occurs and vorticity from the SW energy ejects eastward contributing to more amplification and sooner.

This should be a separate thread lol. J/k. Nice job.

12Km NAM posts should be hidden in a serious storm threat thread at this range, or any range come to think of it. It is about to be retired, and should already be. The Panasonic(which doesnt really exist) is better.

Maybe, but there was a big jump in snowfall from 12z to 15z run, and 18z looks exactly the same.

Latest Natty blend- I think it has ingested the 12z model runs..

LOL just realized there is an actual thread for this threat. Kind of early but the signal is strong.

We we are close enough for snowfall maps to be useful given the strong signal for a storm across guidance.

Latest AFD from Mount Holly on the upcoming potential event- KEY MESSAGE 3...There is signal for an impactful winter storm to impact portions of the area this weekend, however quite a bit of uncertainty remains. Signals of the upper level pattern by late week and the weekend becomes quite active between the northern and southern stream jets. The key elements embedded in these features are currently located over the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean, so it`ll likely take a few more days for guidance to become better aligned. In the meantime, almost all available guidance depicts an area of low pressure developing over the Southern Plains on Friday before tracking eastward into the Deep South on Saturday. Beyond Saturday, its uncertain where the track of the low may go. The main player here is the Arctic high to the north and how strong the high becomes. Some guidance depicts a very strong high near 1044mb, which results in a suppressed storm track keeping any significant precipitation to the south. Whereas, a weaker high would result in a more northerly storm track and potentially bringing significant accumulation to the area. Considering that the system is 5-6 days out, the signal for a winter storm to impact at least portions of the area do appear to be stronger than usual. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM show a 40-60% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 20-40% chance of 6+ inches of snow for areas south of Philadelphia. Probabilities do lessen further north. Even the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P), depicts a 40- 60% chance of moderate level winter storm impacts to the south of Philadelphia. Obviously a lot can change between now and the weekend, but users should keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days.

Ok just looked at the GEFS and EURO AI Ens runs. They look supportive of the GEFS and EPS respectively, but more juiced up.

Been out splitting wood for the upcoming vodka cold, so catching up on 12z. Both the GEFS and EPS look completely fine for this range. GEPS ofc looks awesome. Can't bother caring much about the AI models at this point.

lol that's not saying much. I kind of thought places closer to the coast might get an inch or so, but temps were more of an issue I guess plus they didn't get in on the heavier precip either.

Sounds similar to Harbaugh

8-8 in the playoffs and this year there was no Ravens or Chiefs to deal with. Not sure if the 5 turnovers- 4 by his QB- can be blamed on him, but there have been some issues with him in the past as well.

Bills fired McDermott

It has a cold bias at range but in this case the GFS is pretty similar with temps leading in. Both in the teens.

The currently depicted h5 pattern on the majority of guidance would have to be way off in order for that to happen. Ofc if you wanna ride with the UKie and Experimental Canadian model then maybe. It would likely take a phase of the shortwave energy dropping southward from the Pac NW with the Baja vortex and ejecting it all together.

Both the EPS and GEFS eject significant energy eastward from upper low moving southward towards Baja.

The 0z and 6z Euro Ens essentially look the same wrt precip/snowfall at 6z on Sunday, outside of run to run noise. There is no 'trend'. I am going to trust the Euro more overall for this potential event given how crappy the GFS has performed recently. I will lump the AI models in with the GFS/GEFS based on their performance with our recent (mostly Non) event.

What makes you think tomorrow would be definitive? Trust me, we won't know yet.

12/5: 1.3" 12/14: 1.8" 12/31: 0.2" 1/1: 0.1" 1/18: 0.4" Total: 3.8"

Sun about to come up. 16 degrees. Not quite a half inch.