CAPE
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Personally I don't pay much attention to surface temps in the long range as long as h5 looks favorable. Distilling the LR takes a bit of skill.
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Beyond mid month the GEFS depicts the EPO ridge taking a positive tilt orientation causing the downstream trough to dig a bit more out west. Not an awful look verbatim as the NA is still favorable. Bottom line is I just cant care much about what any model depicts 15+ days from now.
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I think what you mean to say is that places to the south(and east) have been at or above climo for those locations while places NW have largely been below for those areas. There is a significant difference in what is 'normal' snowfall for southern DE compared to places NW of Baltimore. Pretty sure PSU has had more snow than Lewes every winter since 2017(except maybe one).
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^might as well since we are apparently heading into a total shit the blinds pattern with nothing to track for ages.
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Start a thread. Euro leading the way. GFS playing catch up.
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Yup. Exactly what we were discussing earlier, and why we don't necessarily want a +PNA with an EPO ridge. A Slightly -NAO. Could use a little stronger to flatten the SER more and encourage waves to track to our south.
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I'll just casually drop this here with no commentary. @Ralph Wiggum
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One day in the upper 60s with a southerly flow ahead of a strong cold front wont be the kiss of death lol.
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Yeah if we start getting days in the 60s/low 70s in Jan we are probably in a shit the blinds pattern.
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20% chance of snow in the forecast here. Did pretty well with that the last 2 days lol.
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Having some days in the 50s is normal around here in winter. Did ya know the high temp the day before the Jan 3-4 2022 snowstorm was around 60? It was snowing 12 hours later.
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Yeah with an amped EPO ridge we have a mechanism to deliver the cold. Having a neutral/slightly -PNA can facilitate shortwaves ejecting eastward further south. Otherwise we need a healthy NS wave to drop south and track underneath. We will need the NAO to be favorable to keep the SE ridge flat/suppressed and most of the guidance is depicting a ridge over GL in the LR.
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yep. fundamental diff eq.
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And those areas go through stretches where its mild and doesn't snow. Anyone who wants cold and snow all winter probably needs to move to northern Maine.
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We had a cold December and it snowed multiple times. Just had a snow squall roll through on Jan 1. Slight chance of snow this weekend. We haven't even sniffed a shut the blinds pattern. Maybe we wont see a flake of snow over the next 2 weeks, but I kind of doubt that. We are due for a milder period and that looks pretty certain. This is how winter goes in these parts. Personally I am looking forward to some days in the 50s. A little tired of the cold and wind.
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Wow that was an impressive squall line. Would have been cool to see.
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Well I missed seeing it happen again but woke up to a coating of snow for the second day in a row. Kinda cool.
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That sounded like Charlie Brown's teacher speaking to him.
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yes and you whine when you don't get the outcome you want.
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And the equations used to describe the atmosphere are quite primitive. Amazing the models perform as well as they do given the complexity of the atmosphere.
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I've been here long enough to know that 'some people' will never learn. Its tiresome.
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More emotional crap from you lol. You don't understand science.
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Weather is complicated and random. Guidance is imperfect. The equations used to represent the atmosphere are not accurate enough to perfectly represent the chaotic nature of large scale fluid mechanics. Deal with it lol.
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All I can do is laugh. I'll admit this place is entertaining.
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GFS wins!!
