CAPE

It really comes down to h5 and the timing/interaction between the pieces of energy and whether it consolidates in time to take on a neutral/negative tilt. At this point probably a light event is still on the table, but that would probably be more for coastal areas, maybe to I-95. Current guidance(excluding GFS) only has an inch or 2 for the coastal areas of NC and SE VA...that's the jackpot lol. Its weak and mostly offshore.

The Spire basic is close. Anyone check the Panasonic?

I don't really get emotionally invested anymore. When there is something worth tracking, we track it, but expectations should be low when only one model is depicting the desired outcome over several runs, even at 4-5 days out.

Never get too invested when the GFS is all alone.

Kinda saw that coming. A bit more in line with the rest of guidance for now. We got time. Watch the Euro make a big shift NW over the next few runs lol.

18z EPS is slightly worse than 12z. Minor. No progress though.

Still has a ways to go

Definitely something to this. NS dominant patterns are chaotic- turbulent, with vortices flying around all over the place- very difficult for model guidance to get all the wave interactions and timing correct, which ofc have a big impact on sensible weather. Southern stream dominant patterns tend to be prominent in El Nino years and generally have a "quieter" NS, esp with a NA blocking regime. Just a matter of waiting for a significant SS wave to track eastward and snow on us(hopefully).

The vorticity dropping southward over the ridge phases in nicely behind the main shortwave on the 12z run.. not as much on 18z. Subtle differences.

NW crew not liking this run, but still close to something good. Not much different in my yard.

18z GFS has begun rolling. Most important run of our weenie lives.

Kinda like looking at a car wreck on a long drive? Fucking boring and haven't seen anything interesting for miles.

12km NAM is junk. Even worse at range. I don't even bother looking at it anymore.

GFS and CMC have a little something too.

12z EPS similar to the op- a little worse than the 6z run. Nothing earth shattering.

Very subtle differences in the wave interactions(vorticity phasing) but that's all it takes in a situation like this. Bottom line is the shortwave turns neutral/negative later(too late) than the GFS. More runs to come and we will see somewhat different interactions and thus outcomes. Fun stuff eh? eta- you can see it clearly in the panels you posted. Also happens with another piece energy a bit earlier. I have said this ad nauseum- all our hopes and dreams depend on random wave interactions and timing.

12z GEFS further NW than 6z with precip.

A large part of what is allowing the shortwave energy to dig more and earlier is the ridge out west is more amplified/steeper than earlier runs. Also better interaction among the different pieces of vorticity. Not sure how much further west it can go unless there are more corrections to come in the upper levels- like the ridge axis being further west. Personally, I am fine with how it is currently modeled.. maybe a tad further west.

Cape storm comeback. I said I had a feeling at HH yesterday...probably influenced by some drinks But seriously, there has been a definite trend towards a more favorable upper level evolution the last few runs. Didn't really expect this big of a jump from 6z though. Euro been trending that way too.

Improvement with the sharpness and orientation of the UL energy and surface low development location over the last few runs on the GFS. EURO trending the same way but surface low development is a bit further offshore

6z GEFS and EPS look very similar