CAPE

Impressive forecast. Haven't seen that here in ages lol.

Not a broad lobe, but a sharp shortwave that is neutral/ going negative, well sure.

I don't look at the AI models very often, and I don't think I am missing anything very insightful most of the time. Mostly seems like a desperation thing when the physics based models aren't advertising what we want. They aren't quite there yet.

Well, lets just say that isn't even close to perfect for the MA. He gets over excited anytime he sees a piece of digging vorticity, regardless of its orientation or location, or whether its sharp or a lobe that wont do anything at the surface.

Good thing about being busy at work all week- I haven't had much time tor tracking anything run to run and get invested. I saw a couple decent runs on the GFS and maybe one on the Euro, but otherwise it's looked like maybe a skiff of snow along a cold front.

Reading the room, I'm just guessing there isnt much interest in analysis about the feature that's fucking things up in the upper levels to make it not snow again. But thanks!

6, which is over 2 yesterday, which was under

Its supposed to be around 5 mph here. Cold airmass in place, with a glacier otg and clear skies, and the antithesis of UHI around here.. temps should tank.

Forecast low tonight is 4 here. I'll take the under after hitting 2 this morning when the forecast low was 7. Might make a run at 0 if the wind completely dies down.

Make a detailed post discussing the modeled synoptics and why you believe this window holds potential for a winter storm.

No end to the cold in sight with this h5 pattern. Hopefully it isnt all wasted.

It does look like the next tease will be late next week on the ensembles.

low of 2

Latest weeklies for mid Feb. NA blocking and a Nino-ish look overall. It generally likes to snow here in Feb, and this is an h5 look that can facilitate that.

LOL come on dude with the snow maps 2 weeks out

Long way out so I would expand that window a bit.. The NA looks very favorable and I know Chuck will swoop in here and do his -PNA deb thing, but this works out at times(more so in a Nino) with potentially significant energy ejecting eastward from the SW.

lol

Never occurred to me to look at the RGEM at this point but since Mt Holly mentioned it.. Not sure how much difference this makes but it is wester in the upper levels- also at the end of its run.

Pretty interesting AFD from Mt Holly- Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic zone along the coast. In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at this time. Generally speaking, the latest 12z deterministic guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the storm`s precip shield. The GFS has shifted slightly farther S/E with the storm track and precip shield compared to the 0z run while the ECMWF has shifted a bit west. There also continues to be spread among the ensembles. One thing that`s interesting to note though is that the RGEM (the Canadian model) appears to be supporting a track near or a bit west of the model consensus based on its placement of upper level features at the end of its run at 84 hours out (7PM Saturday evening). This model generally does very well with these types of large scale winter systems. Potential storm impacts include not just heavy precipitation but also strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing wise, the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with the brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we get it. Given the very cold temperatures in place both at the surface and aloft, all snow is strongly favored in terms of precip type. The latest NBM probabilistic data has trended back up a bit. For snow amounts greater than 2 inches (plowable), the range is from around 60-70 percent near the coast to 40-50 percent near the I-95 corridor with lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ inches, these probs are around 30-40 percent near I-95 up to 50-60 percent near the coast.

They need something after the Belichick snub lol

Looking like a visit to Rehoboth might be the way to go to see some snow in an hours drive. Plus DFH.

Yeah I was just looking at that. HH GFS craps the bed and now the Euro/EPS is trending better..maybe.

There is always a cutoff on the north side. There is a precip shield on the NW side we just aren't in it. That low is pretty far south at that point . As the low moves NE and deepens the precip on the NW side becomes more impressive but its all offshore.

Still ok on the mean

Fuck yeah we are. We will know how this will go sometime Thursday, probably HH.