CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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I care about snow, not the date lol. The GFS keys on a different piece of energy every other run it seems. Lately its been 19th or 20th for our region or just north. 12z run-
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The ens mean has been somewhat better, so lets see what it has. Still 6-7 days out
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Yeah nothing. GFS is so inconsistent and bad, and its the only model that offers any hope lol.
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WB is behind. Its around 15z Tues that is of interest.
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Although its the trailing energy the produces the lift and precip on previous runs, so maybe
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Damn WB so slow. But I don't like it at hour 102. Positively tilted.
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Its frenetic as fuck. Fun! GFS has been most persistent, although all over the place from run to run.
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The Cape storm is centered on the the 19th-20th. Anything else is not mine lol. That's the window I said I liked for a winter storm based on the ens h5 look several days ago now. It has changed some ofc. But still.
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Its been frustratingly close. I have a feeling...but it might just be this HH bourbon.
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See? You don't know how to interpret ensemble guidance. Stick to the op runs and go from happy to hissy fit every other run.
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Depending on the model/specific run it looks like the 18th, or the 19-20th on the GFS/GEFS. Looks like there could be 2 pieces where neither does much of anything, maybe a dusting(Euro). Next few runs might be interesting- small chance this could end up better.
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EPS does have a bit more of a ridge than the GEFS for around the 24th- both have trended to more a trough out west initially before it shifts east and flattens the ridge. Then we have the CMC ens with a trough and a bit of a storm- snow verbatim.
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The point was the SE ridge is transient. And its an op run at range. Ens means have been depicting a flat/suppressed ridge and a gradient look with colder air just to the north and avg to slight below for our area.
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GEFS still looks interesting for that window, although the boundary probably is a tad further north than we want verbatim.
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I liked the 23-28 window, and I thought you concurred. Its an op run, but that ridge is transient, then we end up with this-
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Cape storm wont quite die on the GFS/GEFS
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Poor Karen Rodgers. He got smacked around. Probably should retire.
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GFS has a bit of snow across the region for the so called Cape storm. Definite improvement in the upper levels though.
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The GFS is becoming a bit of a joke lol. We are well within range for a deterministic model, but look at its last 4 runs. HH has the snow(such that it is) in SE VA/NE NC now. One of its last 4 runs will probably be correct, given the disparity.
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I concur. His posts have really improved recently. The youngs are gonna need to keep this place relevant and high quality going forward. As for Ji, meh, he can easily be ignored, but he is a fixture here like it or not lol.
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lol didn't even realize there was a thread for this. I'll put this here- Half the 12z GEFS members have some snow for central/eastern areas on Thursday. Too bad the EPS and GEPS have little to nothing lol.
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This would be following our big snowstorm.
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Half the 12z GEFS members have some snow for central/eastern areas on Thursday. Too bad the EPS and GEPS have little to nothing lol.
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There is some ignorance here when it comes to interpreting the 'value' of mean snowfall. That's why I would rather not see posts about it until we are within 4-5 days of a persistent threat among guidance. Keep it in the digital snow thread until then.
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12z EPS supportive of the op. Snow maps are respectable at this range, for those who need to have that to believe.
