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  2. February 24/25 Mixed Bag / Moderate Event. CNE NNE centric

    Going to be another case where we get another over-performer of a cold tuck....
  3. February 24/25 Mixed Bag / Moderate Event. CNE NNE centric

    looks like quite the scalping for many of us Sunday morning .. wouldn't surprise me if the surface to 900 mb layer continued to tick colder leading up this. High pressure is initially in an ok spot but slips to the east pretty quick. Still a solid CAD signal - especially CNE / NNE. Too bad the antecedent airmass is garbage.
  4. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Definitely.
  5. Definitely alot of sleet in there south of Con, but the warm nose aloft was less pronounced on the gfs than the nam
  6. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    We Rangely.
  7. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    Trofs settling into the SW arent really all that uncommon at all actually. Not sure if you can pull verification stats on this or not, I would be curious to see. Isnt this similar to saying the -NAO wont sustain itself and will be transient because it just hasnt been a sustained feature since 2011? The argument could go both ways. Biggest features I am watching are the strength of the NAO block, the location of the block, and what the 50/50 decides to do. All will play key roles in determining how that storm signal around March 2 unfolds as well as pattern thereafter. Obviously the PNA (sw trof?) could play a role in the pattern across N America as well irt any potential full lat ridge.
  8. A few flakes in the air the past half hour.
  9. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Hopefully not.
  10. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Started a thread for the 5-10 people this might effect
  11. In addition to the snow potential, the full moon is on March 2nd with some of the highest astronomical tides of March.
  12. February 24/25 Mixed Bag / Moderate Event. CNE NNE centric

    Not buying the TT GFS snowmap. A lot of sleet maybe?
  13. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    March 2010?
  14. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Mid levels looks fine at my latitude......all I care about.
  15. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    Look at what has happened to my snowpile!?!?! Its barely hanging on after the 70's and 80's. This is after shoveling my backyard. My neighbors behind me think I am crazy BTW
  16. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Nor will it be snowing for many.
  17. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    You aren't suppressing with that SE ridge in place at first.
  18. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Snow to ice in far northern parts of CNE and southern parts of NNE, is my guess. Most of NH and ME will stay all snow, and then maybe brief drizzle in low to mid 30's as we dry. out...
  19. Severe potential 2/24

    I'm on Quincy's side here. I don't see any reason to believe that there will be much in terms of supercellular activity. Typically what makes or breaks these cold season events is whether you get open warm sector development. Sure, the parameters may bring with them some impressive analogues, but they also bring some mediocre ones, and that's the problem with these events. The difference between a memorable tornado event and one that sucks is small. I'm not surprised in the 30%/hatched but I'm surprised definitely in the wording. That said, the forecaster has me less surprised.
  20. What a surprise, the GFS trends warmer and wetter for that early March storm as the SE Ridge keeps pumping warmth in the east. That's what? The 5th fooking rainstorm in a row? Unbelievable! I'm throwing my towel in for this winter. What a terrible end to a lackluster winter. Bring on Spring!
  21. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    I worry more about a marginal airmass down here then a complete whiff.
  22. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Looks like the flu season is peaking now, and declining in most spots. Good news is that the A strains are really declining, in favor of B strains. The flu shot is more effective against the B strain than the A strain
  23. While it won’t effect a ton of folks on the board, it could be a messy to decent event for some on here.
  24. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Yeah and about this time last month things were looking pretty good for a cold and snowy mid February till the end of the month. I will put as much faith in this signal as I did in that one. Curious why you seem to put great faith in only warm signals but never any cold ones. You have a Warmacist bias it seems.
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