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I've seen research that suggests Spring snow is not really impacted by warming climates, because the oceans are still frigid into early May, since they reach their coldest temperatures in Mid-March. No coincidence that the ice extent/volume peaks in March too for our hemisphere. Fall snow is impacted though, because Summer heat in the oceans lingers and the ice takes a bit longer to recover. Super late snowfalls also seem somewhat tied to solar activity, there are pretty massive differences in the historical frequency of a last measurable snow after early-mid April in Albuquerque over relatively long-periods of time. The NAO seems to go strongly negative sometime between Jan 15 & Apr 15, or even into mid-May when solar activity is low and the upper levels (above 6000 feet) are supposed to be colder with low solar activity. For whatever reason, the effect has a limited window here, on/after Apr 1 to on/after Apr 14, wth the peak at Apr 7-12. Last Snow Frequency of Last Snow in ABQ by Date (1 = Dec 20, 43 = Jan 31, etc): Significant in Early April Sunspots July-Jun Years <=31 <=60 <=73 <=85 >=85 >=98 >=110 >=115 >=140 >=55 53 3.8% 15.1% 26.4% 50.9% 50.9% 32.1% 13.2% 9.4% 0.0% <55 33 6.1% 18.2% 30.3% 42.4% 57.6% 45.5% 33.3% 30.3% 0.0% P<=0.05? y/n no no no no no no 0.02574 0.01278 no P<=0.05 104-117
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Thursday highs
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Impressive winds here. Nothing crazy. Sounds like a ripping Noreaster
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Thanks Don.
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Hope that UHI doesn't do you in tomorrow lol. Just can't believe we're talking these kind of temps the last 1/3 of sept. I guess why does it surprise me - there has been a lot of extremes the last 10 yrs and I have a very limited memory.
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Still 85 at Midway. Brutal UHI. I'm not exactly rural and it's like 10 degrees cooler.
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92 for a high today at DEN (another record), 75 at 10 PM. Mean temp for the date 74 (+12). Yup, sure feels like winter! 0.02" precip in the past 37 days. Hopefully all this will change in the next couple days. Interesting blog post last week on Weather5280 how it seems like seasons have shifted by a month in the past few years, with September more like August and May more like April. https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2017/09/14/the-september-snow-i-used-to-know/
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we might not be notching 90's but this night time warmth is off the charts impressive and enjoyable. windows wide open to the the sounds of darkness and a choir of frogs and rains sucks singing me the best songs about heat.
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I'd suggest we mostly focus on fewer years with most of the data sets. It might be a personal preference, but using that many years for a single variable might give some wacky results imo. For enso seasons in particular, all the years works great to see if other variables (regional temp anomalies for example) puts other scenarios in play to hone in on, but generally I think less analog years allows better correlation for the pattern of interest.
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It looks blocked by medium concentration ice in the image above. Is that refreezing in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago by 9/9?
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Forky, doesn't Siberia generally have much lower temps than our side of the globe because of the larger land mass of Asia? It's much rarer to see colder air on our side of the globe than what Siberia experiences- particularly the cold pole region of Yakutsk-Omyakon-Verkhoyansk.
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Thanks for your input, I believe you're right, since Katrina was a strong Cat 3 at landfall (with a Cat 5 surge.) Irma had interacted with land by the point that measurement at Naples had been recorded and wound down a bit from its Cat 4 impact in the Keys. Perhaps it was close to 140 during its original Keys landfall.
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I guess I'll go 94 at ORD tomorrow. Was tempted to pick 95, and part of me is anticipating them coming in with that just to mess up my call by a degree again. Will have to watch the lake breeze, but it should be similar to today in that it doesn't quite make it. My odds for various high temps: 93: 20% 94: 35% 95: 30% 96: 10% anything else: 5%
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The problem is the GFS and Euro are not budging.....or at least the GFS hasn't at 00Z and I doubt the Euro does either....the GFS literally takes Maria almost due NNW or N from her current location, if Maria is on the same general heading in 12-18hrs and in the Turks and Caicos without a noticeable north trend then maybe the CMC was onto something and you would think the other models would begin correcting....still that seems unlikely as hell IMO.....
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Speaking my language now bud Let's just make sure the biggest event doesn't happen during my anniversary week lol. Hopefully I can clear enough time to be up there for 3-5 days.
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Not glad we don't live there.
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The passage had the earliest ever transit this year on July 29th.
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Been windy, had some power outages in Hanson, Run of the mill stuff.
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next thursday
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Apparently the nhc fixes has been well west of their forecast track... Don said in his most recent post also said that Maria has started a w of NW motion within the last few hours.. how short lived it is who knows but satellite confirms it's not a wobble... I know it would be unprecedented but it would be something if the CMC is onto something.. The storms current heading and the CMC position around the Turks looks similar. I wonder how long the nhc is gonna keep current forecast track till they adjust it to the latest center fixes Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk
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Exactly! When a Lake Effect Snow Watch is issued you know what the possibilities are depending on the verbiage of the warning. You also know that its most likely going to be more localized. A winter storm watch into a lake effect snow warning makes little to no sense, why not just keep it the same? From my understanding lake effect snow warnings and advs are completely gone. The only thing there will be is winter storm warning or advisory? We had a big event last year but it's been 3 years since a really big event in the populated regions of WNY. The city is especially overdue for one. Lake Ontario in the tug gets on average 2-3 50" events a year. So every year you can set aside time to chase up there.
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Congratulations. Thanks for sharing this fantastic news.
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A few more west jogs like ones the plane is finding and she will be outside the NHC cone inside of a 12 hrs....this doesn't necessarily mean anything down the road but slower and more west means more time for Jose to die and the ridge to bridge.....still the ridge to her immediate NE is small and suppose to weaken thanks to Jose so she should begin to turn north fairly soon......unless the models have over done Jose's effect on said ridge....also 128knt at the surface in the eyewall that last pass....probably a gust but still that's 150 mph.....
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Am I crazy for thinking we might be entering a Dustbowl redux? Last winter (2016-17) was very similar to 1931-32 by temperature anomalies nationally. This (2017) Hurricane season is the only one since 1850, other than 1932 - to have a category four hurricane hit Florida, Texas and Puerto Rico in the same season. The PDO, Nino 3.4 (raw) temperatures, AMO (raw) temperatures, and solar activity are all almost identical to 1932 right now. To me, the Dustbowl started after how dry / warm the 1932-33 winter was for much of the Midwest. PDO: Aug 1932: -0.1. Aug 2017: +0.1 AMO: Aug 1932: 23.51C, Aug 2017: 23.66C Sunspots July-June: 1932-33: 14.5 July-June 2017-18: 18.0? Other: Both years two years after Super (Modoki) El Ninos: 1930/2015 Look at how close Nino 3.4 is for August 2017 & August 1932 too - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKS8WhyVAAAb3KN.jpg:large
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I see no viable threats on any models. Home brew prospects in the Gulf look subdued. Enjoy your first good cold shot next week, I think we get back into some AN mid-month.
