SR Airglow Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's always slow. Good to know -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Models pulled the rug out on a major snowstorm in the final 36-48 hours before the storm only to see it come back 12-18 hours before the storm happened. I remember about 24 hours out, most of the region had 1-3/2-4 forecast by the models and verification was 12-18" but not for everyone..it was a four to six inch deal for much of the nw interior..i had almost ten inches however just a couple miles to my nw it dropped off to six inches within the city limits. the 12 to 18 was for a sig portion of sne but not everyone had quite that much of a good time. nonetheless everyone wound up much better than progged...and those lucky folks just south and east of me wound up with mind boggling snow depths at or approaching over three feet on the level... the nyc forums will talk about that event forever as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Models pulled the rug out on a major snowstorm in the final 36-48 hours before the storm only to see it come back 12-18 hours before the storm happened. I remember about 24 hours out, most of the region had 1-3/2-4 forecast by the models and verification was 12-18" This is a funny quote from before that event: I'm just going to add my two cents after reading what Scott and Ryan wrote just above this and agreeing. I don't feel any different, wait for the 12z. It just doesnt make any sense to get all worked up over the differences THIS year. There's no consistency in our models, there's been no right or wrong model consistently.....all we can do is go with the model that typically verifies the best but also acknowledge as Scott did there is room for compromise. I say that because the Euro even at 48-72 has not exactly been nailing the tracks of the surface lows. This isn't the year where we can say any one model is king. There's nothing we can do about it, there's no sense worrying about it, we just need to let it roll out at 12z. I do agree though, we have made excuses all year for the performance. We're in a totally different situation this time and the models (US) are still all over the place. RGEM too. The feature that is causing some of the mayhem is just off the coast into the NW bay of campeche now. There's no real drying with it, doesn't look all that significant to me but maybe it's going to be enough to combine with the other vm's and erupt a big, storm busting dry slot, who knows. All I'm saying is it's futile this year. Sit back, enjoy your coffee and donut, the kids, work or your commute because it just doesnt matter. We could see a reversal on the euro or a total reversal on the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Models pulled the rug out on a major snowstorm in the final 36-48 hours before the storm only to see it come back 12-18 hours before the storm happened. I remember about 24 hours out, most of the region had 1-3/2-4 forecast by the models and verification was 12-18" If I remember correctly there were two parts to that storm? All I know is that overnight it bombed out and dropped 15" of snow here at rates of 2-3" per hour. 1-26-11 was awesome end to an incredible month of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 but not for everyone..it was a four to six inch deal for much of the nw interior..i had almost ten inches however just a couple miles to my nw it dropped off to six inches within the city limits. the 12 to 18 was for a sig portion of sne but not everyone had quite that much of a good time. nonetheless everyone wound up much better than progged...and those lucky folks just south and east of me wound up with mind boggling snow depths at or approaching over three feet on the level... the nyc forums will talk about that event forever as well Yeah W of the Ct River didn't do as well, but better than the coating the models had them for 24 hours out. E CT got crushed with 15-19". I had a bit over 12" here. One of my bigger busts from 24 hours out when I went 3-6" and I was being more optimistic than guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 (note: this not a forecast) (note: this not a vote of full confidence in the NAM) By 36h, NAM is similar to 18Z (and dissimilar to 12Z) in having a finger of vorticity into South Dakota... that's the piece of vorticity that interacts with the southern energy on the 18Z and delivers the NW tick. Hopefully this delivers more tick ticks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is a funny quote from before that event: I'm just going to add my two cents after reading what Scott and Ryan wrote just above this and agreeing. I don't feel any different, wait for the 12z. It just doesnt make any sense to get all worked up over the differences THIS year. There's no consistency in our models, there's been no right or wrong model consistently.....all we can do is go with the model that typically verifies the best but also acknowledge as Scott did there is room for compromise. I say that because the Euro even at 48-72 has not exactly been nailing the tracks of the surface lows. This isn't the year where we can say any one model is king. There's nothing we can do about it, there's no sense worrying about it, we just need to let it roll out at 12z. I do agree though, we have made excuses all year for the performance. We're in a totally different situation this time and the models (US) are still all over the place. RGEM too. The feature that is causing some of the mayhem is just off the coast into the NW bay of campeche now. There's no real drying with it, doesn't look all that significant to me but maybe it's going to be enough to combine with the other vm's and erupt a big, storm busting dry slot, who knows. All I'm saying is it's futile this year. Sit back, enjoy your coffee and donut, the kids, work or your commute because it just doesnt matter. We could see a reversal on the euro or a total reversal on the others. Who said that? NAM is inexorably coming towards the other guidance which does produce snow. (note: this not a forecast) (note: this not a vote of full confidence in the NAM) By 36h, NAM is similar to 18Z (and dissimilar to 12Z) in having a finger of vorticity into South Dakota... that's the piece of vorticity that interacts with the southern energy on the 18Z and delivers the NW tick. Hopefully this delivers more tick ticks... It's coming north this run, but I don't "think" any more than towards the GEFS/Euro Ens if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah NAM will come a good deal north this run, but it was so far south previously that it really only had one way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ugh I was not even going to look at it this run but now im sucked in guess ill watch it! Who said that? NAM is inexorably coming towards the other guidance which does produce snow.It's coming north this run, but I don't "think" any more than towards the GEFS/Euro Ens if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah W of the Ct River didn't do as well, but better than the coating the models had them for 24 hours out. E CT got crushed with 15-19". I had a bit over 12" here. One of my bigger busts from 24 hours out when I went 3-6" and I was being more optimistic than guidance. i hope ect realized the event was baltimore-esque (09-10)...a two foot bomb two weeks earlier with reinforcements and minimal sublimation/melting and then well over a foot to a foot and a half...that is about as epic as i think it can get for that part of sne i was in awe with the ten inches and the just over two foot on the level snow depth where i live lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nam may be a tickle nw. Slooooower 5h. More southern energy involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah NAM will come a good deal north this run, but it was so far south previously that it really only had one way to go. Does the same deal as the globals with the transfer to the redevelopment. Precip shield over PA at 48 shifts SE at 51, by 54 the heaviest is out over the water. So it's coming into the fold for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah NAM will come a good deal north this run, but it was so far south previously that it really only had one way to go. It could have stayed the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 i hope ect realized the event was baltimore-esque (09-10)...a two foot bomb two weeks earlier with reinforcements and minimal sublimation/melting and then well over a foot to a foot and a half...that is about as epic as i think it can get for that part of sne i was in awe with the ten inches and the just over two foot on the level snow depth where i live lol I had a max snow depth of 38" that winter. I measured over 40" in the woods. Definitely a top 5-10% winter in terms of snow depth. Even more anaomalous in E CT where snow depths were similar (but harder to achieve there than N ORH county). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 nice to see the NAM come NW.. good trends so far, hoping I can sneak in 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I had a max snow depth of 38" that winter. I measured over 40" in the woods. Definitely a top 5-10% winter in terms of snow depth. Even more anaomalous in E CT where snow depths were similar (but harder to achieve there than N ORH county). Yeah, I was right in the middle of it here... absolutely amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Meh...NAM is probably somewhere around the Euro Ens or GEFS. We'll need those models to move NW before we can determine that this is anything more than the worst model coming into agreement with the others. SREFs will continue to tick NW too based on this/WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NAM seems like classic Meso...develop the low only along a thermal ribbon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 pretty big change on the nam now the long wait for the gfs maybe ill look at the rap to see how its doing out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 54-60hrs out. Stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Remember when the ETA aka NAM was a good model? It's borderline useless now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 54-60hrs out. Stranger things have happened. A positive is this is not fighting some ridiculous block ala Feb 2010 or Dec 2009. There's room to move NW and not pray a block trends weaker. Just hope the energy is under estimated which is easier to have happen than the former. Still not an easy task, but I remain interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The words "model" and "consensus" haven't shared the same sentence much this season, but 0z NAM / 18z GFS / Euro Ens / GEFS are pretty damn close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Remember when the ETA aka NAM was a good model? It's borderline useless now. The old ETA had some just disgraceful busts....but man, it scored some epic coups too. It was the classic swinging for the fences model...it batted .244 but hit 40 HRs. So you always watched when it went to bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Tickleeeeeeee me timbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We can poo poo on the NAM as a model all we want...but I think everyone has to be comfortable seeing it gradually ticking NW since 12z. Hopefully most have gone through their 5-stages and accepted this thing ain't gonna be a blockbuster...and we can now root for a decent light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Punter almost got nailed on this kick. Shanked it a bit, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Tickle me pick pick pickle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I had a max snow depth of 38" that winter. I measured over 40" in the woods. Definitely a top 5-10% winter in terms of snow depth. Even more anaomalous in E CT where snow depths were similar (but harder to achieve there than N ORH county). my max depth was after the first of feb event with a solid 30 inches on the level..something i never thought i would see here in spfd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Tickle me pick pick pickle why does everyone keep using that stupid term Tickle..? did I miss something? .. it's almost as annoying as the AWT ASOUT.. etc etc.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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