A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 So is the 12z NAM crap in developing the SW cutoff into a decent storm? Someone tell me why I should discount it and get back to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Energy in the SW is developing into a major winter storm on the last two NAM runs. Looks like it could be a nasty ice storm for those just south of the snow line, especially with these winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 18z NAM backed off on those totals above. The rest of the 12z models showed a lot less snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Funny dilema this morning whan NAM was showing 2 Feet and the GFS maybe an inch. Need to get a strong closed 850mb low for the nam to verify. Edit: Here's 66hrs the 850 low is an open wave. Not good for precip in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 18z GFS is a further improvement on the 12z solution... at least for OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Interesting to see what the 0z model suite has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 This is a scenario where you do not need a closed low for a big snow in this region because of the massive high pressure dome dropping south, see my link below from 2/24-25/03, an event that hit S OK and N TX very hard with little more than major overrunning. 1/6/88, 1/27/00 and 2/9/11 are also major events with a high to the north and an open wave, the closed low is generally only needed in events that shortly follow a frontal passage. This event would actually have the upper trough to the west and a surface low possibly forming in SE Texas as well to aid it. I would generally side with the bigger amounts south of I-40 for sure right now. http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us0224.php http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us0225.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I basically agree. I will say that the northern cutoff is likely to be quite sharp due to the nature of the trough and the strong confluent zone north of the precip area, and that the width of the snow stripe is likely to be quite narrow. Some zone 30-50 miles wide will get the lion's share in this type of setup, with a narrow strip of sleet and ice on the southern end. This is a modified cA airmass, so pay close attention to the 2m/925 temps and account for typical model bias wrt arctic fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This is a scenario where you do not need a closed low for a big snow in this region because of the massive high pressure dome dropping south, see my link below from 2/24-25/03, an event that hit S OK and N TX very hard with little more than major overrunning. 1/6/88, 1/27/00 and 2/9/11 are also major events with a high to the north and an open wave, the closed low is generally only needed in events that shortly follow a frontal passage. This event would actually have the upper trough to the west and a surface low possibly forming in SE Texas as well to aid it. I would generally side with the bigger amounts south of I-40 for sure right now. http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us0224.php http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us0225.php I don't know the area too well. I guess the closed low isn't needed. 2003 looked much nicer than this though with a weaker gradient on the western side of the storm allowing for a larger area of overrunning, But you probably weren't expecting another 2003, just using it to make a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 And there's the narrow band on the 00z NAM. This is a total snowfall that may be produced image, not how much 'sticks'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Not a good run at all for me. 25 miles away gets a foot I get a dusting if that was the truth. I say toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 What are some mets latest thoughts (after the Euro)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 What are some mets latest thoughts (after the Euro)? I am not speaking for any exact locations, but I think the NAM is out to lunch and really has little to no chance of occurring. The threat with the anomaly across the ROckies ejecting into the plains is almost identical to what we are dealing with right now in Nebraska through MN except it is shifted farther E. The trend all winter is for these full latitude troughs to tilt more positive with time and for these shallow fronts to dive farther S. The GOM is wide open, but there is going to be little chance the ejecting wave will have any chance for amplification with any type of decent low level cyclogenesis like the NAM suggests. I think the CMC/0Z GFS/UK all have the relative "idea" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Keeping my thoughts localized to North Texas, I am concerned that we may be dealing with a quicker change over to winter precipitation on Monday then what most models are showing. It's all going to depend on how quickly the cold air moves south. I suppose I'm worried that models are underestimating the speed of the 32 degree isotherm line with it's movement southeast. The GFS is dumping quite a bit of precip earlier in the day on Monday. If we get some of that as winter precip, we could be dealing with a problematic Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Here is Tulsa, all the models are trending us to stay at a temp between 30-35. Talk about gradient!! That scares me for ice! Does anyone have pics of where that freezing line is while the big precip is falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I am not speaking for any exact locations, but I think the NAM is out to lunch and really has little to no chance of occurring. The threat with the anomaly across the ROckies ejecting into the plains is almost identical to what we are dealing with right now in Nebraska through MN except it is shifted farther E. The trend all winter is for these full latitude troughs to tilt more positive with time and for these shallow fronts to dive farther S. The GOM is wide open, but there is going to be little chance the ejecting wave will have any chance for amplification with any type of decent low level cyclogenesis like the NAM suggests. I think the CMC/0Z GFS/UK all have the relative "idea" here. The NAM is a brutal model at this range, every now and then, perhaps 1 out of every 5-7 storms or so it does score a hit over the GFS at this range but typically the GFS is the better model and I find the CMC is an exceptionally good model in the KS/OK/TX/AR region of the country for winter events. If the Euro agrees with the NAM consistently you can usually feel better about the NAM being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 18Z NAM Quite a bit different from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not really buying the idea of a harsh northern edge to the precip... yesterday's 18Z was the last sane NAM run IMO. Compare yesterday's 12Z to today's 18Z, noticing especially the northern edge in central MO: Note: I am NOT saying the past NAM runs are correct... I'm just saying that since and including last night's 00Z, the NAM has had a problem with compacting the precip too much. If there were a sharp temperature gradient at that location, I might be more apt to believe it, but the only such gradient at any pertinent time in the run is way southeast of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not really buying the idea of a harsh northern edge to the precip... yesterday's 18Z was the last sane NAM run IMO. Compare yesterday's 12Z to today's 18Z, noticing especially the northern edge in central MO: Note: I am NOT saying the past NAM runs are correct... I'm just saying that since and including last night's 00Z, the NAM has had a problem with compacting the precip too much. If there were a sharp temperature gradient at that location, I might be more apt to believe it, but the only such gradient at any pertinent time in the run is way southeast of that area. Okie, What do you think that all means? I'm a novice so I don't follow exactly what you think this means. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 0z ECMWF Text Data... DFW: MON 06Z 05-DEC 4.4 3.9 1019 88 94 0.21 567 551 MON 12Z 05-DEC 3.3 1.0 1021 88 98 0.15 565 548 MON 18Z 05-DEC 5.1 0.1 1024 63 12 0.01 566 546 OKC: MON 00Z 05-DEC 4.6 0.5 1022 62 75 0.01 561 544 MON 06Z 05-DEC 2.8 -1.7 1024 64 96 0.03 560 541 MON 12Z 05-DEC 0.6 -4.4 1026 62 98 0.04 558 537 MON 18Z 05-DEC 2.9 -5.9 1029 42 95 0.01 559 536 TUL: MON 18Z 05-DEC 2.5 -4.3 1028 47 98 0.02 559 537 FSM: MON 06Z 05-DEC 4.3 1.6 1021 95 100 0.20 566 549 MON 12Z 05-DEC 3.4 1.6 1020 92 96 0.19 563 547 MON 18Z 05-DEC 2.2 -0.6 1024 90 97 0.20 563 543 TUE 00Z 06-DEC 2.5 -1.9 1025 61 42 0.01 563 543 JLN: MON 12Z 05-DEC 0.5 -2.3 1025 63 97 0.01 559 539 MON 18Z 05-DEC 0.2 -4.6 1028 54 100 0.03 558 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 WSW for most of New Mexico and WWA issued for Midland/Odessa, Davis Mountains as well as thw Western TX Panhandle areas. I wouldn't be surprised to these expanded as the morning unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Just updated 06Z SmartCast, right now showing areas in Arkansas and Tennessee with some good soaking rains. Potential of seeing 1"+ of rainfall through 17Z, especially in the areas of around Goodwin, PineBluff, AR and Memphis, TN areas. Across the TX region showing Dyess areas with 2.1" of snow accumulations through 17Z, with 11-13Z with the heaviest snowfall potential. Other areas across KS, NE, SD, and ND, with colder temperatures overnight dipping below 0F, especially across the ND region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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