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Looking at most guidance ex the GFS op you can see how odds favor decent weather. GEM makes most sense to me. Even the 12z GEFS has the surface low SE of the BM by 12z Sat. Not buying bs IVT on the GFS.

thank goodness it will turn cooler starting thursday wearing a hoodie and jacket in these temps is uncomfortable..

A recent study found that the volcanic eruption had a cooling effect. We calculate the climate forcing for the two years after the January 15, 2022, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (Hunga) eruption. We use satellite observations of stratospheric aerosols, trace gases and temperatures to compute the tropopause radiative flux changes relative to climatology. Overall, the net downward radiative flux decreased compared to climatology. Although the Hunga stratospheric water vapor anomaly increases the downward infrared radiative flux, the solar flux reduction due to Hunga aerosol shroud dominates the net flux over most of the two-year period. Decreases in temperature produced by the Hunga stratospheric circulation changes contributes to the decrease in downward flux; however, the Hunga induced decrease in ozone increases the net short-wave downward flux creating small sub-tropical net flux increase in late 2022. Coincident with the aerosols settling out, the water vapor anomaly disperses, and circulation changes disappear so that the contrasting forcings all decrease together. By the end of 2023, most of the Hunga induced radiative forcing changes have disappeared. There is some disagreement in the satellite stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) which we view as a measure of the uncertainty; however, SAOD uncertainty does not alter our conclusion that, overall, aerosols dominate the radiative flux changes followed by temperature and ozone.

Yeah I agree with Andy on Indiana above. Illinois boundary right now enjoys more instability. However Indiana convergence zone will have a ton of SRH. Plus it'll destabilize too. I have always preferred the eastern of two surface troughs when chasing east of the Mississippi River. Midwest, Mid-South, Deep South. Then more upper level support is over Indiana. Need to catch the right entrance/rear of the upper jet, which is somewhat departing Illinois. Now there's a Plains short-wave coming out, but that is the overnight stuff. Daytime I think Indiana. LLJ also hangs in better Indiana vs Illinois.

Thats why I said I would cap all hurricanes to Cat 1 and all tornadoes to EF1, up to then it's fun and rare.... anything past 1.... no thank you, Florida can handle it a lot better than we can.

Sitting right on the IL/IN, like my spot

79 here now, it's really nice!

Today and tomorrow look pretty volatile across a fairly large expanse of real estate. Indiana today seems like the best bet for chasing, good recovery going on in behind the earlier line of storms plus winds are staying more backed than the RAP was indicating.

..it's been sssoooo long since there was a day in the mid to upper 40's....

Lol Heat in May? Uninstalled

Beautiful 77 and clear skies. Perfect May Day

I mean sensibly yeah, 53F or 48F. Doesn’t really matter at all. A max in the 50s vs the 40s isn’t a spring celebration.

Mesoscale disco out highlighting tornado watch incoming for NE & E IL, N IN, and extreme SW MI.

My Tempest weather station has a decent lightning detector and sends reliable push notifications.

it's boring outside

It’s like if a Cat 4 hurricane is making a beeline at the city. My emotions would be on the fence between intense fear and sheer excitement.

Let's slow this down by 6 to 9 hours and we're probably getting into something fun.

Also STPs are just about maxed from KY line to I40 tomorrow.

Uh No!

He'll have the heat on for sure.

Your forecast is having the storm speed out. Not sure that is possible. 00z runs looked closer to 60+. But that is dependent on when it leaves.

Common protocol is to pull over if safe and place them on the side of the road that they were traveling toward. If possible I'll walk into the woods a hundred feet or more so they're far away from the road. If they're doing something stupid like walking toward a shopping mall parking lot then I'll either put them back on the side they're traveling from or drive 1/4 mile down the road to a safe area for them.

20/12/5

Just funny to see ACATT hold on …looking for anything lol

Can you tell me the procedure for rescuing these? I've wanted to do this, but not sure where to put them. If I put them on the road, I'm afraid they'd get run over.