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Spine crusher ongoing right now, seems focused on the western slopes and peaks along the MRV

Why get the lawnmower tuned up.. it's only February.. It's gonna get cold again and grass won't even grow till later in March lol a lil warm up and people think springs coming lol

Well played, looks like they deleted their comments LOL. Looks like fun!

I agree with some of this. But to be fair NWS doesn't issue 10-15 day forecasts. They issue general guidance like "likely to be above normal, or above or below normal precip" it's private sector agencies and people issuing daily specific forecasts at those ranges and yes its just to get hits and publicity not to make good forecasts. I like tracking threat windows. SO it's wroth it to me to glance at long range stuff once in a while to identify if there are any legit opportunities coming. But if you need to have a detailed forecast like "today it's going to 34 degrees with 3-5" of snow" no that kind of thing can't be made outside a few days. That isn't what looking at the long range is useful for. And if someone doesn't find it useful or worth their time to simply identify general pattern trends...they don't have to look. No one is forcing anyone to waste their time looking at day 15 ensemble means. lol

The CMC is all we got. I've got a decent track record for threads so maybe I can carry that on to this storm. It's four days out now so might as well separate this from the LR thread*. We need a lot of luck to make this happen. Prayers will be needed but they will not be enough. May the odds be ever in our favor! *mods may delete this if they deem fit

Hit this…

What's your season ranking at the stake? I remember at one point in early winter it was #1

@MJO812 lmao you got bamboozled and hoodwinked, saw that coming from a mile away. AIs were never on board

Suns out, guns out. Get those lawnmowers tuned up. Crocus bloom watch.

This is all so depressing! Hate dirty snow!

Or the Sunday night storm hits…

The question is, when its 40.2° on April 28th - will I look back on the Winter and say "it was all worth it". I want at least one more decent storm, and get to 50".

We melt

The last week of Feb thing has been an anomaly for sure, but its mostly recent. Things run in cycles, and a lot of it is just random chance...like getting 5 heads in a row if you flip a coin enough times. Further back we had plenty of significant snowstorms the last week of February...off the top of my head... 2015 we got that storm that was 6-12" across Maryland and 3-6" in VA the last week of Feb 2007: there was a 4-6" storm after the V-day ice storm the last week of Feb 2005: there was a 4-8" storm the last few days of Feb 2003: there was a 3-6" snow the last week of Feb after the PD2 storm 1993: There were two storms across MD the last week of Feb, Baltimore had about 3" from both but NW of 95 got like 4-6" from both storms. They were both snow to sleet storms 1987: that wet snow bomb I love so much was the last week of Feb 1986: there were two storms back to back in late Feb combined it was like 5-7" further back I know there was a big snowstorm the end of Feb 1966, I think it was like 8-12" across Maryland Recently somehow it hasn't snowed that week but we've had some big snowstorms just a few days before and after that week...and in the past it has snowed that week...so its just a fluke of random chance. The fact that we haven't had much snow in general at all anytime lately makes it easier for it to happen.

if you believe the GFS regarding the upcoming miss then you will have to believe this - 1 inch over the next 16 days total qpf - which will help little

Thanks. I would say if things really can’t be forecasted with some normal scientific precision standards beyond X number of days then why do it? I know why but it brings out the protect the supply chest thumpers of all sorts. It’s because 268 hour snow monsters Sell. There is a myth that NOAA/NWS are “above all that” Do what can be done and take a broader view approach. That one set of graphs where lines are running everywhere is like reading the human genome chart Weather forecasting needs new blood with new ideas.

The low SST’s this year should make for a tantalizingly miserable April for some folks. Bwah ha ha…

Speaking of investing your time wisely, all of those words boil down to this: Long-range forecasting is valuable for identifying threat windows in advance, but it’s useless for details, making you dumb to expect day 10+ guidance to behave like a near-term forecast.

It does almost every year....the question is are we going to keep the continuous winter train going or is the ride mostly over and then we're just mixing in stat padders in March/April. Could go either way....some years like this died a slow death in late Feb/early Mar (like 2011)....while others went gangbusters (2001)....some gave us faux spring and then went gangbusters back to winter afterward (2017 and 2018 both did this)

I'll take the under on anything with alot of QPF

Skynets and ensembles only beyond four days.

Said yes at 0Z - will it change again with updated fresh data ? 0Z runs get the full load of data - interesting that the Canadian has been close to consistent with the phasing and more intense storm for a few days now

The last two years it has snowed in March and April, just saying Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Depends on expectations... if you want some 2 week stretch of deep winter with snowcover...no but how often do we get that even in mid winter? not much. But we've had several March's recently that had significant snowfall, especially the further NW of 95 you go. 2005 we had a 4-8" storm across the area the first week of March 2009 there was a storm early March that some places SE of 95 got 10", up here I got about 6" 2013 places NW of 95 got a 6-10" snow early march 2014: 3 snow events...2 of them were pretty significant especially for VA 2015: a 6-12" snowfall across the area in early March 2017: the sleet storm 2-3" of sleet across much of the area, had about 8" up here 2018: a couple minor 1-2" snows and then the 4-8" storm March 20th, had 15" up here 2019: not sure what baltimore had but I got 3 snow events that totaled about 10" up here the first week of March. 2022: I got a 6" snowstorm in March, can't remember what Baltimore area had but it might have missed there That seems to be a pretty decent hit rate considering no one period has a ton of snow because our climo sucks! But early march is as good as any period except maybe Jan 20-Feb 10th. Yea that is our golden window...but outside that...the first 10 days of March are as good as say anytime before or after Jan 20-Feb10th imo for just getting snow. I think some let the fact the winter is about to end and it's depressing affect it. They get to the point where they just want to move on because they are frustrated.